Tennis Betting Advice - May 2026
French Open: Each Way picks at 20/1 - 500/1...
Friday 22nd May 2026
The French Open 1st round starts on Sunday morning. The draws were made in Paris yesterday, and we now have paths to plot – and outsiders to back…
Men’s picks: Targeting the bottom half…
We’ll start with the men’s event. Roland Garros 2026 won’t see Carlos Alcaraz. The two-time defending champion and world no.2 is out injured…
Considering that between them Alcaraz and world no.1 Jannik Sinner have swept up the last nine Grand Slams, the Spaniard’s absence opens the door for someone outside of the Top 2 to get to the final – and maybe go all the way.
The problem is the bookmakers aren’t stupid (or generous). Normal Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for reaching the final have been trimmed to 1/3 odds instead, taking into account the expected/ perceived dominance of odds-on trophy favourite, Sinner.
Still, it makes sense for us to go looking for value opportunities as we always do. And it also seems logical and sensible to go browsing in the opposite side of the draw to the Italian winning machine, avoiding the no.1 until the title match…
In that respect, the bookies have former runner-up Alexander Zverev (12/1 at best) and former winner Novak Djokovic (14/1 tops) next in the betting. One of those is the favourite to meet Sinner two weeks on Sunday in the final, and these are options that may well happen – but don’t excite me at all:
Bet365’s Name the Finalists favourites:
Elsewhere in the bottom half of the men’s draw, there’s no doubting the talent and potential of Ones to Watch youngsters/ upcoming challengers such as Jakub Mensik (100/1), Joao Fonseca (80/1), Jiri Lehecka (100/1), Rafael Jodar (25/1), and Arthur Fils (22/1). Where I do have concerns though, is in the ability at present of those guys to stay at full-tilt, fitness-wise and mentally, for the two-week, best-of-five set grind that is a Grand Slam tournament.
Looking to more experienced men at Major level, then. Karen Khachanov is a two-time former quarter finalist here, although I can’t shake the nagging feeling that the 30-year-old’s very best days may be behind him. He’s 150/1 and bigger.
TOMMY PAUL gets me interested with a bit of 100/1 and plenty of 80/1 on offer. The 29-year-old American is one of the fittest, most naturally athletic men on the tour. The world no.26 won the Boys’ French Open as a junior in 2015 – so you can stop the ‘American can’t play on clay’ argument right there.
As I write, Tommy is through to the semi finals on clay at ATP Hamburg today (Friday). Paul reached the quarter finals here at the French Open last year – only beaten by champion Alcaraz, and there is no shame in that. As an outsider with under-the-radar status and better-than-his-price-suggests credentials, Tommy Paul appeals as a Ones to Watch selection here.
One other man gets the nod from me at this early stage, and that’s CASPER RUUD at 20/1+. The Norwegian has had a good couple of weeks on his favoured clay, steadily working his way back to his well-known level of consistency on the tour after recently becoming a father. Around 22/1 for a two-time former French Open finalist (2022-2023), who also made the semis in 2024, makes Ruud a decent best-of-the-rest contender in these conditions.
Women’s picks: Pure talent and raw talent…
Moving on to the women’s tournament now, where we get the usual 1/2 odds Each Way terms (hooray!), and it’s a different story in terms of how dominant – or not – the star names are…
Reigning champion Coco Gauff (7/1) continues to throw in more than the odd bad day at the office (watch out for matches where those double faults start to mount up). Fellow high-flying, Top 10 youngster Mirra Andreeva (10/1) is still maturing, and the quest for a first Grand Slam title looks to weigh a bit heavy on her at times. That could all change, of course, but the price isn’t brilliant for me.
January’s Australian Open winner Elena Rybakina is around 7/1. The world no.2 has made the quarters in Paris twice before and has the calm head and power game to go far at any tournament. But it also has to be said that Wimbledon (former champ) and the US Open this summer would be more suited to her than the bumps, slips and slides of the clay. If I’m wrong, I can live with missing a 7/1 favourite.
And to chip away at the two outright favourites: world no.1 Aryna Sabalenka is yet to reach a final on clay this season, and reported an injury issue this spring. While four-time French Open champion Iga Swiatek has gone seven tournaments and nearly two years since last making a final on clay in 2024. It will be no surprise if those two deliver; Bet365 have Sabalenka v Swiatek as the clear 5/1 favourite in the Name the Finalists betting. Again, not a price for me. Both women need to win six matches each to pull that off. Anything can happen…
We already have underrated Top 10 name JESSICA PEGULA in the book as an outsider with potential. Backed on 12th May at 50/1, the reliable American is still backable at 40/1 and 33/1 now that the draw is out.
If things go to plan, 32-year-old seasoned pro Pegula could meet Ones to Watch in 2026 teenager VICTORIA MBOKO in the last 16…
I talked up the 19-year-old Canadian’s ability on clay at the start of this month, only to see Victoria pull out of the Rome Masters due to illness. Coupled with wisdom-teeth surgery this spring, Mboko is now bouncing back – going well at WTA Strasbourg here in France as I write (semi finals…). Read more about why I like this youngster’s bigtime prospects in our pre-season report, here.
Before the recent setbacks, Mboko was as short as 18/1 and 20/1 for the French Open. We can now get 40/1 and the likes – and we should take it.
In the opposite side of the draw to Pegula and Mboko, Elina Svitolina will have plenty of supporters at 18/1. The Ukrainian just won Rome – her biggest title since returning to tour after becoming a mother. Age 31, she’s back in the Top 10. Svitolina’s Achilles Heel thus far in her otherwise distinguished career has been the ability to get over the line and reach a first Grand Slam final. That doubt still concerns me – especially at this price (in comparison, Ruud in the men’s has reached multiple Major finals, although is yet still to win one).
We’ll happily go with bigger prices from day one in this year’s event. The two to take here are former French Open runner-up KAROLINA MUCHOVA at 40/1 in general, and recently highlighted fast rising teenager, LILLI TAGGER – with the latter at 500/1…
Muchova is a fantastically talented tennis player and as I’ve said many times before, not least when getting the Czech in the book as a 50/1 early-bird, ante-post pick for Wimbledon this year – if she avoids injury, she can beat anyone and everyone. I like the 29-year-old, world no.10’s place in the draw here.
Tagger on the other hand is a newcomer. This will be the 18-year-old Austrian’s first French Open. But at 500/1 we can readily take the plunge with such a powerful-hitting, talented young lady. Lilli is up to a new career high of no.91 in the world, and is tipped to go much, much higher in the years (and weeks and months, for that matter) to come. As with all great Ones to Watch youngsters, we want to take the very best odds while we still can…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
French Open 2026 – Men’s:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/3 odds 1-2 places)
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Already in the book: Jessica Pegula @ 50/1 – now 40/1 or 33/1.
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P.S
Get on WhatsApp for match picks…
If you would like to receive all my French Open match picks during the next fortnight, starting from this weekend. Then you need to join our WhatsApp channel >>
I’ll be using the free-to-use WhatsApp platform to send out bonus match bets to you during the French Open, straight to your smartphone…
These will be members-only picks. Specifically covering Match Winner opportunities and the like, on a frequent if not everyday basis.
The WhatsApp match picks will be separate to our big-odds, Each Way tournament Outright Winner selections – which will remain in long-form, in-depth format by email. And exclusive to you as a Ones to Watch member…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone