Tennis Betting Advice - May 2026
French Open: Lurking with power at 200/1...
Tuesday 26th May 2026
We play the big-odds game here at Ones to Watch. And we’re playing it again today…
In the tournament Outright Winner markets, we go after appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices. That’s our modus operandi.
The recently introduced Sunday start at the French Open means, three days in, we’re still in the 1st round. The 2nd round begins on Wednesday…
Plenty of time, then, for us to make our next moves in the tournament markets. Following on from last Friday’s preview & picks (available in full here).
A pair of menacing outsiders in the women’s draw…
Most of the time, betting before a ball is hit is the best way to get the biggest price. But not always. And with 1st round wins under their belts, these two ladies catch the eye right now at triple-figure odds…
JELENA OSTAPENKO was 80/1 in general ahead of the opening weekend, but the quirky Latvian is 100/1+ with a few firms today. And I reckon we should get involved…
The key stat here - maybe the key to the whole thing - is that Ostapenko holds a commanding, mentally significant, 6-0 head-to-head record over the joint favourite for the trophy… former world no.1, and four-time French Open winner, Iga Swiatek.
If these two seeds progress as planned, then Ostapenko and Swiatek are on course for a 3rd round clash later this week. That could be huge.
Make no mistake, these players will know about that draw. Ostapenko has referenced it already when prompted by a fan online.
It has certainly appeared to be the case in recent years that Jelena is in Iga’s head. Not many players can boast such a record against one the very best in the world:
Today’s bet isn’t just based on that head-to-head, though - impressive and eye-opening as it is…
Ostapenko is in the bottom half of the French Open draw. That means the world no.31 avoids no.1 Aryna Sabalenka until the final, as well as reigning Roland Garros champ, Coco Gauff - to name just two.
What’s more, in Jelena’s section of the draw, she appeals to my underdog senses at huge odds, compared to former Ones to Watch picks Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk, who this time stand out on form - but not on price: currently at just 16/1 and 20/1, respectively.
Neither Svitolina or Kostyuk has won a Grand Slam before, or got to a final. That may change this year, but… Ostapenko knows how to do this. She won the French Open as a 100/1 teenage Ones to Watch name back in 2017.
Granted, since then, it’s been a bumpy ride through the formbook. Jelena has always been hit or miss, sometimes wildly so. Her aggressive (often risky), attacking, big-hitting game is for the brave only. And she is brave.
The magic trick is to find the tournament where Ostapenko gets back in the groove, with big odds on our side. I believe now could be just the time.
Jelena holds a 2-0 head-to-head v the surging Kostyuk, and is 2-2 against Svitolina. The caveat there being that none of those meetings were particularly recent or on clay. The fact remains though, Ostapenko won’t fear those opponents. The huge prices available here allow us to back the former world no.5 this week…
The second lady I want us to get behind today is a much less well-known name - but possessing arguably even more hitting power on the court than the Latvian…
HAILEY BAPTISTE is 24 years of age, which is definitely not young for a tennis player, but it feels like 2026 is her breakthrough year…
The American cracked the Top 25 for the first time this spring (currently no.26), and Baptiste is well on track to keep up her trend of improving her world ranking, season on season:
More evidence that Hailey’s moment is now, comes from the way she won her 1st round match in Paris, saving two match points, coming from behind to beat former French Open champion, Barbora Krejcikova…
And when you consider that Baptiste pulled off the same escape act on clay at the big WTA 1000 event in Rome last month, saving a match point and beating world no.1 Sabalenka in a deciding-set tiebreak, to reach the semi finals. The mental strength and confidence is there.
Hailey may get a chance to take down another top name in the days to come, with no.2 Elena Rybakina in this segment of the draw. As I stated in my tournament preview last week, Rybakina is respected here for sure, but clay is the best surface on which to oppose the tall Kazakh.
Baptiste is already on course to be one of the success stories of the year. She’s capable of taking that up a notch this summer, and the next surge may come right here at Roland Garros. The huge, rank outsider odds on offer get my underdog antenna twitching today.
Hailey reached week two of the French Open last year (round of last 16). If the progress arc continues, this young American could feature in the latter stages of a ‘Slam sooner rather than later - and at big prices…
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
French Open 2026 – Women’s
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Already in the book/ open bets:
WOMEN
Jessica Pegula
Victoria Mboko
Karolina Muchova
MEN
Tommy Paul
Casper Ruud
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
P.S
Get on WhatsApp for match picks…
I’m using the free-to-use WhatsApp platform to send out bonus match bets to you during the French Open, straight to your smartphone…
These are members-only picks. Specifically covering Match Winner opportunities and the like, on a frequent if not everyday basis.
The WhatsApp match picks are separate to our big-odds, Each Way tournament Outright Winner selections – which will remain in long-form, in-depth format by email. And exclusive to you as a Ones to Watch member…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone