Tennis Betting Advice - November 2019

Davis Cup Finals – 40/1 underdogs in Madrid…

Tuesday 19th November 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Tsitsipas reigns in London…
  • Davis Cup Finals this week…
  • Two teams to follow in Madrid…

Tsitsipas reigns in London…

We had a great end to the ATP season last week, with Stefanos Tsitsipas lifting the trophy at the ATP Finals in London.

In the group stage, the 21-year-old beat 2019’s breakthrough player Daniil Medvedev and 2018 ATP Finals champ (and our other pick) Alexander Zverev.

In the semi finals, Tsitsipas beat Roger Federer in straight sets.

Then in the final, the Greek youngster came through a thrilling final against Dominic Thiem, prevailing 6-7, 6-2, 7-6 to win the biggest title of his career so far.

Outsiders prevail…

After 11/1 Grigor Dimitrov in 2017, that’s the second time in three years that we’ve found the ATP Finals champion – and at double-figure odds, too…

Federer went out to our man Tsitsipas in the semis. Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic didn’t make it past the group stage.

After 18/1 Tsitsipas v 20/1 Thiem on Sunday, five of the last six ATP Finals finalists have now been outsiders in the pre-tournament Outright Winner betting, at odds of 11/1+.

How did you do?

Tsitsipas was 18/1 with Boylesports and 14/1 in general. Although I’ve already heard from Ones to Watch member Neel, who managed to get 22/1 for Tsitsipas with SpreadEx.

I hope you enjoyed the tournament and especially the final. We’ll be looking to get more players into finals at nice Each Way prices next year. Play starts in January.

How did you do? I’d love to hear from you. Drop me a line here

Davis Cup Finals this week…

There’s still plenty of tennis to keep us entertained this month…

This week we have the inaugural Davis Cup Finals in Madrid. This is a new, week-long format for the finals, with 18 nations competing across six groups. The six group winners and two best runners-up go through to the quarter finals.

Play started yesterday and – for me, at least – this looks like an exciting development for the annual International men’s team event.

The decision to change from five-set matches and home v away ties in a year-long knockout tournament hasn’t been a completely popular one. And on social media there were some snipes about empty seats in the stands on day one.

But this new, snappier schedule could turn up some great matches. Each tie consists of three matches – two Singles, followed by a Doubles. Played in a best-of-three sets format. This debut event is on indoor hard courts in Madrid.

Even if a nation loses both Singles matches to go 2-0 down, the Doubles is still important in the group phase, as each match win you get on the board counts for deciding the group winners (in the event of a tie) and the best runners-up.

There are several big names taking part this week. Nadal leads the way for 11/4 (3.75) favourites Spain. Djokovic is the star man for Serbia (8/1 at best).

Notable withdrawals so far have been Medvedev for Russia (fatigue), and Marin Cilic for 2018 Davis Cup champions Croatia (injury).

For Great Britain, we’ve already spoken about Andy Murray. With our thinking being, if Murray can continue his incredible injury comeback and deliver the goods for GB this week, then his huge odds for the BBC Sports Personality of the Year Award will be sure to take a dramatic tumble.

Great Britain start their campaign v Kazakhstan on Wednesday. GB are short odds-on favourites to top a group that also consists of the Netherlands. Last week’s Outright odds of 20/1 and 16/1 are now gone, with Murray & Co now 10/1 in general and 11/1 at best.

Two teams to follow in Madrid…

Having two strong Singles players in your Davis Cup squad gives you a real chance of competing here. Australia at 7/1 look a solid pick. Second only to USA in the historical Davis Cup trophy-wins list, the Australians are sure to approach this team event with the right attitude. I can’t think of a more passionate captain than former World No.1, Lleyton Hewitt.

On the Singles front, Alex De Minaur and Nick Kyrgios are the real deal. There are no worries about De Minaur’s attitude. Kyrgios is more of a law unto himself. But he seemed to enjoy and embrace the team format in the Laver Cup in September. And when Nick plays well, he’s right up there with the best in the world.

The rest of the Aussie team contains decent depth, especially with the Doubles in mind, with the experienced John Peers alongside the ever-reliable John Millman and the younger Jordan Thompson.

Australia are favourites to win Group D ahead of Belgium and Colombia. The Aussies start v Colombia later today.

For something more of a ‘wild card’ selection, I’m not ruling out Italy at 40/1. That inflated price comes after the Italians lost their opening tie v Canada yesterday, 2-1. However, that could easily have gone the other way with Canada’s Denis Shapovalov edging Matteo Berrettini 7-6, 6-7, 7-6 in the match that ultimately decided it.

The Italians looks to have a lot of noisy supporters in the Madrid crowd, too.

With the big-serving Berrettini having the best season of his career to date, and the Kyrgios-like Fabio Fognini bringing the talent (and unpredictability). Along with a couple of old hands Andreas Seppi and Simone Bolelli in the ranks, plus the upcoming Lorenzo Sonego. It’s not unthinkable that the Italians can still get out of Group F by beating USA in their next tie…

USA players like Sam Querrey have been known to flounder on this kind of stage before. And the Americans have to play back-to-back ties v Canada (today) and then Italy (tomorrow). The Italians have today to recover from Monday’s exertions.

Ones to Watch:

Davis Cup Finals – Outright Winner:

  • Australia are 7/1 Each Way with Bet365, Marathonbet, 6/1 general
  • Italy are 40/1 Each Way with Bet365, Skybet, Marathonbet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Play starts from 10am, so the Outright Winner prices may disappear during the day’s play. They’ll be back up tonight.

I’ll be back in the week with more from Madrid.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch