Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020

Nadia can spring a surprise at 25/1...

Thursday 12th November 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Ones to Watch this week…
  • WTA Linz…
  • ATP Sofia…

Our players had some long matches yesterday – but all three got the ‘W’ in the end, and move on to the next round…

Ones to Watch this week – the story so far…

At ATP Sofia, John Millman was involved in the longest match of the day. After having two match points in the second set, the Australian eventually prevailed over Gilles Simon, 7-5, 6-7, 6-2, in a match that clocked in at three hours and 18 minutes.

Our 18/1 selection from earlier in the week, Millman is now 8/1 & 7/1 in this morning’s revised Outright Winner market.

John has a tough but winnable quarter final in the Bulgarian capital today, with the big-serving Vasek Pospisil priced up as the match favourite. The head-to-head is 2-1 to the Canadian.

Millman will give his all here, as he always does, and confidence will be high after winning a first career title last month. The playing surface doesn’t look to be zipping as fast as some indoor courts right now, so that could also help our man against the muscley shots of Pospisil. If John can slow down the rallies, then a few errors could start to seep from the Canadian’s racket.

This bottom half of the ATP Sofia draw certainly looks there for the taking now, after 4/1 tournament favourite Felix Auger-Aliassime was knocked out last night.

On the women’s tour this week, we’re on two players in the top half of the WTA Linz draw…

After a close three-set battle of her own yesterday, our pick Barbora Krejcikova (33/1 – 22/1) is through to the quarter finals in Upper Austria. The Czech has been taken to a deciding set in both of her matches this week, and managed to improve at the end on both occasions.

Krejcikova goes into Friday’s match against Aliaksandra Sasnovich as a slight underdog in the betting, at 5/4 (2.25). Expect plenty of breaks of serve in that encounter – and don’t rule out another three-set scrap.

Our other Linz selection, Oceane Dodin at 25/1 & 22/1, plays this afternoon for a place in the quarter finals. The Frenchwoman is on an eight-match winning streak on indoor hard courts, although she had to come from a set down to win her 1st round match yesterday.

When Dodin’s flat hitting clicked into gear on Wednesday, she looked very good. The 24-year-old is priced as the favourite to beat Romania’s Sorana Cirstea today. Again, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this one turn into a three-set twister.

Nadia can spring a surprise at 25/1…

I’m adding one more player at a nice price today.

Krejcikova is showing that her 4th-round run at the French Open was no one-hit wonder, and she can look forward to 2021 on the WTA Tour. As can the young woman that beat her in Paris and went on to reach the French Open semi finals, Nadia Podoroska

The 23-year-old Argentinean represents a bit of an eyebrow-raising choice here, seeing as she has hardly any indoor hard-court wins in her pro-career formbook. But that’s because the South American has hardly played any events indoors…

Clay courts have been her staple. But Nadia shouldn’t be ruled out here and at future hard-court tournaments. Because her 2020 form is remarkable, producing a huge leap in results, rankings, and consistency – after coming back from a tough wrist injury in 2018.

Podoroska’s match win-loss record this season is 22-4 on clay (85%). But what no-one is talking about is that her 2020 figure on hard courts reads 19-3 (86%)…

This is a player in the form of her life this year. And while fast-hitting former WTA Linz winner Camila Giorgi is an understandable favourite to win their 2nd-round match today, the Italian is notoriously unpredictable, and can get very wobbly at key moments in matches. These two have met once before, incidentally on indoor hard courts, in Moscow back in 2016 – and Podoroska won that day.

Odds of 25/1, 22/1 and 20/1 stand out today, with the bookmakers that are still offering place terms of 1/2 odds Each Way (as listed below).

Ones to Watch:

Outright Winner pick – Each Way

WTA Linz:

  • Nadia Podoroska is 25/1 with Boylesports, 22/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 20/1 Skybet, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Play starts from 1.30pm.

I’ll be back ahead of the weekend, as we gear up for the ATP Finals in London. More on that in my next email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch