Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020
Paris picks at 80/1…
Tuesday 3rd November 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Felix Auger-Aliassime went out in a scrappy three-set, 1st round match against Marin Cilic yesterday. Our 40/1 & 33/1 outsider couldn’t get his game going. We’ll be following young Felix again in 2021, for sure.
As outlined in Sunday night’s preview, this Paris Masters tournament has a propensity to produce surprises and big-odds finalists. With players making the final since 2016 at odds of 40/1 (twice), 80/1 (twice), and 300/1.
Paris picks at 80/1…
Play starts on day two at 10am today, so I’ll be brief this morning in naming three men that could put a run together here at very attractive underdog prices:
We’ve seen players go well as repeat Ones to Watch picks for us. Kevin Anderson made the ATP Vienna semi finals at 80/1 last week. He can be backed at that price again today.
Normally I’d steer clear of someone that ended up retiring injured in their last match, but Kevin is an honest pro and I don’t think he would’ve taken up his place in the Paris draw if he didn’t feel he was able to give it a valid shot.
With his big serve a great weapon on indoor hard courts, and a heartfelt desire to get back to the top table after a year and more of injury problems, Anderson could dig deep and do something again this week, to end his season on a high.
In terms of one of the younger generation of players that could go well here at a large price, 21-year-old Alex De Minaur fits the bill…
Alex was a Ones to Watch regular in 2019, including a 16/1 winner for us at ATP Zhuhai on hard courts last September. He ended last season by also makes runs to finals at Basel, and the Next Gen Finals, both played indoors.
The speedy Australian is here in Paris on the back of a runner-up finish indoors at Antwerp last month. He started well this week with a 2-0 win in the 1st round on Monday. Odds of 33/1 make De Minaur one to follow. He’ll rally all day, and can use the speed off his opponents’ shots to counter-punch.
Nadal has never won here…
As well as that recent history of massive prices in the finals at the Paris Masters, we can also be encouraged to look for an outsider here by the fact that world no.1 Novak Djokovic – who has won four of the last seven titles here – isn’t defending his crown this week.
And top seed and 2/1 favourite Rafael Nadal, while being a Paris legend with 13 French Open wins on clay, has never lifted the trophy at this indoor hard-court event in the French capital.
Nadal is in the top half of the draw, in Quarter 1. While Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev are two dangermen in Quarter 2, and also single figures for the title, at 8/1 and 7/1 respectively. I fancy hunting out a speculative outsider from Nadal’s section, and Jan-Lennard Struff could be that man at 80/1…
The German has a strong serve and the game for indoors, and he can absolutely club the ball. When he gets his confidence up – and he does tend to back himself – Struff can look top class.
A 50-50 match today against Pablo Carreno-Busta (33/1) could just tilt his way – the career indoor form is in Struff’s favour, and the Spaniard looked very flat when losing in straight sets to Anderson in Vienna last week.
If Struff can get through today, then he could be a tricky underdog opponent moving through the rounds. Carreno-Busta is 0-6 for his career against compatriot Nadal. That might lurk in the back of his mind. Struff is one of those players who raises their game against higher-ranked opponents. He’s beaten the likes of Zverev and Rublev before, for example.
This is a tournament where it could pay to back a few men at ‘long-shot’ prices, and to expect the unexpected…
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner pick – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Play starts from 10am UK time.
I’ll be back in the week with more from Paris.
Enjoy the tennis…