Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020

Three women in the quarter finals today…

Friday 13th November 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Linz…
  • Quarter Finals today…
  • ATP Finals start Sunday…

It may be Friday 13th, but we start the day full of optimism…

In Austria, we’ve got three players still running for us at WTA Linz, at odds of 20/1+ each.

Plus, the draw for the ATP Finals was made yesterday, and play starts at the O2 Arena in London on Sunday (see below).

Three women in the quarter finals today…

Starting with the business at hand today. We’ve got three picks in the quarter finals in Linz, keeping up our healthy strike-rate of getting players through to the latter stages of tournaments at outsider prices.

Play starts from 1.30pm, live on Eurosport, and live streaming on selected bookies’ websites such as Bet365 and Skybet…

The latest addition to our Outright Winner selections this week was Nadia Podoroska (25/1 – 20/1). We got on the 23-year-old yesterday, ahead of her clash with former Linz winner Camila Giorgi.

The fact that Podoroska lost a first set that lasted over an hour, and was able to compose herself and bounce back to win the next two sets, says a huge amount about the temperament and abilities of the Argentinean.

Nadia has to be a contender for most improved player of the year. Podoroska beat Giorgi 6-7, 6-1, 6-4 in a match lasting over two and a half hours.

Next up for Nadia, an even tougher assignment on paper, with our player priced as a 7/4 (2.75) underdog to beat indoor specialist Ekaterina Alexandrova this afternoon.

We’ve backed Alexandrova twice at hard-courts tournaments this season, at 16/1 (won) and 28/1 (lost in 1st round after having match points). This week, the Russian went off as short as 6/1 with Bet365. With 20/1+ in the book for Podoroska, we have the value on our side.

Yesterday we spoke about Podoroska’s lack of any previous indoor hard-court form, and how she might be a little underrated in these conditions (traditionally fast courts, compared to clay). This quote from Nadia in Linz this week shows she’s got a can-do attitude:

“The courts here are fast but the bounce feels quite slow, which I like. Playing indoors, you don’t deal with bad weather, there’s no sun, there’s no wind, so that’s great for me. It cleans up my tennis.”

Our other two picks in Austria are Barbora Krejcikova (33/1 – 22/1), and Oceane Dodin (25/1 & 22/1).

Those two are also underdogs in the match betting today. And both face opponents from Belarus…

Krejcikova takes on Aliaksandra Sasnovich. This one could be close. It will likely come down to who can hold their service games when it really matters.

After a 4th-round run at the French Open, Krejcikova is actually the higher-ranked woman going into this clash. And if a lower-tier win on clay back in 2014 counts for much, then the head-to-head is 1-0 in favour of the Czech, too.

Dodin takes on Aryna Sabalenka. This is a proper Ones to Watch clash for us. Dodin is a qualifier here at WTA Linz. Sabalenka is no.1 seed and the tournament favourite since day one…

The Belarusian is on a six-match winning streak, having won WTA Ostrava on indoor hard-courts last month.

But in our favour, Dodin brings plenty of indoor form, too. After winning a lower-tier title at ITF Macon in France at the end of October, then coming through qualifying and the first two rounds here in Austria this week, the Frenchwoman is on a nine-match streak indoors.

These two met at the US Open in September, with Sabalenka taking a close two sets, 7-6, 6-4. The current world no.11 was a 1/5 (1.2) match favourite that day, and she’s a similar short odds-on price today.

Dodin has the power and shots to stay with Sabalenka this evening. The Linz organisers have put this match last on the Friday quarter-final schedule for a reason – it could be a good one.

So, there we have it. We roll into Friday’s play with three players in the quarter finals, all at attractive outsider odds. It’s an exciting place to be.

The O2 Arena would also be an exciting place to be next week, if only we were allowed in…

ATP Finals start Sunday…

The draw for the ATP Finals was made yesterday. As ever, the top eight men of the season are spilt into two groups, with the top two from each round-robin group going through to the semi finals.

And with this being the 50th anniversary of the men’s end-of-season championships, the group names are even more grandiose than usual…

In Group Tokyo 1970, we have:

Novak Djokovic
Daniil Medvedev
Alexander Zverev
Diego Schwartzman

And in Group London 2020:

Rafael Nadal
Dominic Thiem
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Andrey Rublev

The action starts from 2pm on Sunday, behind closed doors at the O2 Arena.

I’ll be in touch on Sunday morning with my take on the Outright Winner prices, and the day one matches.

And you and I will be following the ATP Finals every day next week, with an email & analysis from me each morning.

The tournament is being shown across the BBC and Amazon Prime Video.

I’ll see you before lunchtime on Sunday, as we look forward to an entertaining week in London.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch