Tennis Betting Advice - November 2021

33/1 Carlos to follow the Australian pattern...

Monday 15th November 2021

Injury news pending…

I’m advising a ‘watching brief’ on the ATP Finals this week. Day one on Sunday cast major doubt on one of the competitors in Turin, with home hope Matteo Berrettini having to retire injured during his opening group match v Alexander Zverev.

That’s led to talk of fellow Italian and first alternate, Jannik Sinner, replacing Matteo in the field. Although that hasn’t been confirmed yet.

There are also ‘rumours’ that, in the other round-robin group, which begins today, Stefanos Tsitsipas may not be fit to compete…

The second alternate is Britain’s Cameron Norrie. As Greg Rusedski so deliciously and conspiratorially suggested last night – who pulls out of the tournament first would decide which replacement went where…

In other words, Tsitsipas withdrawing before Berrettini would mean Italy’s Sinner goes in the group starting tonight, and therefore gets a full three matches to make a tilt at qualifying.

Still with me?! Anyway, nothing is decided yet. We can’t bet on rumours.

As it stands, the top of the ATP Finals 2021 Outright Winner betting is dominated by the big boys. The world no.1 and five-time winner, Novak Djokovic. Followed by the Next Gen men that have lifted this trophy in the last three years: Daniil Medvedev, Tsitsipas, and Zverev.

Here's how the Outright market looks this morning at Paddy Power, before the start of play (1pm UK time):

ATP World Tour Finals 2021

33/1 Carlos to follow the Australian pattern…

Talking of the next generation, 18-year-old Ones to Watch name Carlos Alcaraz won the ATP Next Gen Finals last week…

That tournament – also held in Italy – went according to the betting. With the Spanish teenager taking the title as the favourite, at 6/4 (2.5) at best. Beating the second-favourite in the final, fellow Ones to Watch 2021 stalwart, Sebastian Korda. The 21-year-old American went off at 11/4 (3.75).

There’s certainly no exact science in using historical trends to identify outsider betting opportunities…. And we all know there is no crystal ball, either (!). But keeping a track of what goes on in the tennis world and looking to connect the dots over the years has set us on exciting and interesting paths before…

The big example that springs to mind from this season is Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz. He won the ATP Miami Masters at 100/1 in March; an outcome that got my memory banks fizzing from when fellow Pole, Jerzy Janowicz, blasted his way to the Paris Masters final at big odds, back in 2012. Janowicz went on to reach the Wimbledon semi finals the next season, at 90/1. We locked in Hurkacz at 200/1 and 100/1 for SW19 this summer. He also made the semis – coming just one match win away from scooping us a huge Each Way return.

Then, last month, we made our first men’s Grand Slam selection of 2022. Striking an early-bird 25/1 or 20/1+ bet on Jannik Sinner for the Australian Open. The Italian youngster will still be just 20 years of age when the first Major of the new season begins in January. The same age that Novak Djokovic was when he first broke through at Grand Slam level, crowned champion in Melbourne back in 2008. This year, Sinner became the youngest player to win five+ ATP titles by the age of 20 since… Novak Djokovic (who did it when he was 19).

Superstar in the making…

Here's another potential ‘pattern’ for us to follow. With odds of 33/1 on offer right now for Carlos Alcaraz to be the latest Next Gen Finals winner to hit the ground running again in the very next season, Down Under…

The ATP Next Gen Finals were conceived in 2017. Since then:

Nov 2017 – Next Gen Finals winner – Hyeon Chung
Jan 2018 – Australian Open semi-finalist – Hyeon Chung

Nov 2018 – Next Gen Finals winner – Stefanos Tsitsipas
Jan 2019 – Australian Open semi-finalist – Stefanos Tsitsipas

The 2019 Next Gen winner was Sinner, and we’ve already got him in the book for the upcoming Australian Open 2022.

The Next Gen event wasn’t held in 2020.

Nov 2021 – Next Gen Finals winner – Carlos Alcaraz…

Alcaraz is one to get behind next season, and beyond. He’s every inch the real deal. Supremely talented, hard-working – and with a possessed, Rafael Nadal-like drive to fight to win every single point. He’s currently a top price 33/1 for the Australian Open 2022. Some firms are as short as 14/1…

Here’s what we said about Carlos in our 2021 pre-season report, when listing him as a teenager to follow:

Carlos Alcaraz

Age: 17
Country: Spain
End-of-2020 World Ranking: No.141

The youngest man on our list, Carlos Alcaraz set out a marker in 2020, winning six titles across the lower-level ITF Futures and ATP Challenger tours. In doing so, he became only the fifth player in Challenger Tour history to win five+ titles before the age of 18. With former World No.1 Juan Carlos Ferrero as his coach, Alcaraz looks to have a lot of good things in place, and a big future ahead of him.

Updating that info sheet to take into account his 2021 achievements:

Alcaraz is now 18 years of age. Has won his first two ATP titles (ATP Umag on clay, and the Next Gen Finals on indoor hard courts). And ends the year at a new career-high in the world rankings, leaping from no.141 to no.32 in the space of 12 months. A top 10 future beckons.

Ones to Watch

Men’s Australian Open 2022

Outright Winner – Each Way:

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Note: some bookies list Alcaraz by his full surname, Alcaraz Garfia.

P.S
We’ve already got a 100/1 teenager in the book for the women’s Australian Open 2022. With 18-year-old Clara Tauson backed at the top early-bird prices in September. That same month, the Danish youngster, who will turn 19 in December, landed us a 16/1 winner at WTA Luxembourg. Tauson is now trading at 80/1 for January’s Australian Open (Betfred), and 66/1 with Bet365.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch