Tennis Betting Advice - November 2022

ATP Finals - 3-set battle in store tonight...

Thursday 17th November 2022

Stef sneaks it on a Tiebreak…

We’ve been doing good business at the ATP Finals in Turin this week. With three out of three Tiebreak in the Match payouts.

As well as an underdog bet on Casper Ruud beating Taylor Fritz, which was decided by a tiebreak in the final set.

And yesterday, our 16/1 outsider pick for the trophy, Stefanos Tsitsipas, sneaked past pre-match favourite Daniil Medvedev. The Russian served for the match at 5-4 in the third set – but Stef fought back to win it in a final-set tiebreak: 6-3, 6-7, 7-6.

After that result, Tsitsipas’ Outright Winner price was cut to 6/1. Meaning we got a nice bit of value on our side by making that move at 16/1 or 14/1 on Wednesday. To qualify for the semi finals, the Greek star will need to beat another Russian, Andrey Rublev, in the last Red Group match on Friday night.

There’s also a qualification shootout in the Green Group this evening. Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz will battle it out for a place in the semis (8pm)…

Auger-Aliassime v Fritz tonight…

With these trends in mind from the tournament so far, the two angles that we’ve been following this week may appeal to you again today:

  • 6 of the 8 matches have featured at least one Tiebreak set – with 2 matches also paying out on ‘Over 1.5 Tiebreaks’
  • 5 of the 8 matches have been won by the underdog in the Match Winner betting

If those prevailing trends were to carry on this evening, then Fritz would be the bet, at a top price 6/4 (2.5) with William Hill. He also won his one previous meeting with Auger-Aliassime. The score in that (outdoor) hard court match at the ATP Cup this year was 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 – so, there’s some extra evidence to add to the case for another Tiebreak today.

However, while we’ve been getting around Evens (2.0) in general for the Tiebreak bet this week, the prices have started to creep a little too much into odds-on territory for my liking today. Although a couple of other bookies have at least now joined the party in terms of offering this market.

It’s not going in as an account bet for me today, and I feel we might have been to the well enough times already with the Tiebreaks this week, without pushing for another win at shorter odds. But as a matter of interest, I’ve gathered up the Tiebreak in the Match prices that I can find today:

Boylesports are 11/10 (2.1), and that’s the best of the bunch. Everywhere else, it’s odds-on. With Skybet next best at 5/6 (1.56). Then William Hill and Unibet at 7/10 (1.7), Bet365 at 4/6 (1.67), and Betway the shortest at 11/20 (1.55).

This could go the distance…

The approach I’m taking today is to back this match to go to the full three sets. It’s a proper, high-stakes knockout situation here: whoever wins will go through to the semi finals in second place in the group…

Considering how tightly-matched Felix and Taylor are likely to be on serve today. Along with the knowledge that their one previous meeting went all the way to three sets. And this recent formbook nugget from the American:

  • 4 of Fritz’s last 6 matches have gone to 3 Sets

The play I’m going for here is 3 Sets. Which, depending on the bookmaker, is either called Total Sets: 3, Over 2.5 Sets, or Both Players to Win a Set.

I’m expecting this one to be a tense/ exciting, closely-fought contest…

Odds of around 5/4 (2.25) will do for us here, as we look to add to what’s already been a profitable week indoors in Italy.

Ones to Watch picks:

ATP Finals, 8pm
Live on Amazon Prime Video
Live streaming on bookie sites inc. Bet365, Skybet

Felix Auger-Aliassime v Taylor Fritz

Note: some bookies call this bet Over 2.5 Sets, or Both Players to Win a Set (William Hill).

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch