Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020

French Open: Day 10 chances – including Sinner v Nadal…

Tuesday 6th October 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • French Open – Day 10…
  • Quarter Finals…
  • Sinner v Nadal – Most Aces…

Welcome to Day 10 of the French Open…

Breakthrough moments…

Only two men have ever beaten Rafael Nadal at the French Open. Robin Soderling caused a seismic 4th-round upset in 2009. And Novak Djokovic beat Rafa in the quarter finals in 2015.

Apart from that, the King of Clay has been impenetrable at Roland Garros. Nadal’s career match win-loss record here is a sensational 97-2.

You don’t need me to tell you that the odds are stacked against Jannik Sinner today. The bookies make the match upset a 10/1 shot.

We’re on Sinner at 150/1 in the Outright Winner market. That’s full-on Ones to Watch territory. There’s a great potential upside to those odds. The Italian teenager is now trading at 50/1.

And this 19-year-old is a player that looks to have a very promising career ahead of him…

It might feel like Nadal has been around forever. But remember, once upon a time, in 2005, Rafa too was an exciting teenager bursting onto the scene. That year, the Spaniard won his first three matches in straight sets, then came through the 4th round, 3-1. Sinner has repeated that pattern so far.

Sinner is the youngest man to reach the quarter finals of the French Open since… Nadal in 2005.

My point being – everyone has to start somewhere. It’s not likely that our underdog will make history today. But it’s not inconceivable, either.

Being on the edge of things, anticipating the next big breakthrough players, is where we do a lot of our big-odds business…

Drawn & quartered…

Going into the French Open 2020 quarter finals today and tomorrow, we have four names still in our Ones to Watch book, all at very attractive odds:

  • Andrey Rublev 50/1 – 66/1
  • Jannik Sinner 100/1 – 150/1
  • Iga Swiatek 25/1 – 100/1
  • Sofia Kenin 33/1 – 40/1

From a total of 12 selections across the men’s & women’s draws combined, we have four of our picks through to the quarter finals. We’re on a quarter of the players left in the competition.

To add even more symmetry to our book, we have one player in each half of the draws. Rublev is in the top half of the men’s draw, with Sinner in the bottom. Swiatek is in the top side of the women’s field, with Kenin in the other.

In the women’s Outright Winner market, the price shifts have been the most dramatic…

From as big as 80/1 and 100/1 on Day 1 last week, having knocked out top seed Simona Halep on Sunday, the bookmakers now have Swiatek as the 9/4 (3.25) tournament favourite.

From 33/1 & 40/1 when we backed her after the 1st round, Kenin is now 5/1 (6.0).

We’re in good positions. We go into the quarter finals with plenty of interest, and with four excellent prices on our side.

Aces high…

After a measly showing at the US Open last month, the bookies have upped their game and priced up some Aces and Double Faults markets here.

The Sinner v Nadal match gets our attention. The teenager looks a bit of vale as the slight outsider for the Most Aces today.

If Sinner is going to have any shot at causing the big upset, he’ll need to have his serve in good working order. Offer up too many break points to Rafa, and you’re in big trouble.

The stats for the tournament so far are evenly matched. And that suggests the value could lie in the man available at the bigger price of the two. Sinner is Evens+ (2.0), with a standout 15/8 (2.88) at Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, as the sun comes up this morning.

The Total Aces tallies for the tournament so far, on these heavy clay courts, are a modest 8 aces in four matches for Sinner, and 7 aces for Nadal.

The Italian youngster has played a set more. The aces-per-set averages come out at 0.62 for Sinner, and 0.58 for the Spaniard.

On the other side of the net, Rafa has been aced 10 times across his four matches thus far. Sinner has seen his opponents’ serves fly past him just 6 times across his four outings. And that includes facing one of the biggest servers in the game in the last round (Alexander Zverev managed 3 aces across their four sets).

With five matches to play on Court Philippe-Chatrier today, and this one scheduled last on. Plus, the possibility of playing under the roof if the rain continues. The courts could play a little quicker by the time these two get on court this evening.

At the prices, Sinner is my pick of the two for the Most Aces today.

Ones to Watch:

Jannik Sinner v Rafael Nadal

  • Most Aces : Sinner is 15/8 (2.88) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 11/8 (2.38) Bet356, 11/10 (2.1) Skybet, Evens (2.0) 888 Sport, Unibet (-0.5 Aces Handicap)

You can watch live on the Eurosport channels, website & app. On selected bookie websites with a funded account. And on ITV4.

I’ll be back on Wednesday morning with your Day 11 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch