Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020

French Open: Day 11 – including Collins v Kenin…

Wednesday 7th October 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • French Open – Day 11…
  • Quarter Finals…
  • Double Fault figures…

Welcome to Day 11 of the French Open…

Welcome to the big-time…

Tennis players love superstition and routine. Just look at Rafael Nadal and all his on-court rituals.

Iga Swiatek has been listening to a lot of music on her headphones. Everything from rock to jazz. She’s been pumping herself before every match with Welcome to The Jungle by Guns N Roses.

If the formula works – don’t change it. The impressive teenager is through to the semi finals…

Our Ones to Watch pick has blasted her way through to the final four. She is yet to lose a set.

From odds topping out at 80/1 and 100/1 at the start of the tournament, the 19-year-old is now the 5/4 (2.25) favourite for the title.

If nothing else, we have scooped up some fantastic prices on the Polish youngster. Any odds you took pre-tournament or last week will now be looking very good.

For Ones to Watch follower Andy, things have already worked out very nicely. Andy backed Swiatek to win Quarter 1 of the women’s draw at 28/1. And Iga landed that bet yesterday by winning her quarter final match:

“I decided to place a bet on each of your selections to win their quarter as the prices were reasonable. I got 29.00 on Iga Swiatek to win Q1 in the French Open so the winnings covered all my bets on the tournament with a bit of profit as well.

I still have 3 other chances for someone to reach the semis so may get another one up as well. If any players make the final then even better.”

Fantastic stuff, Andy.

Two in the Quarter Finals today…

Our other big-price teenager, 150/1 Jannik Sinner, played very, very well for the first two sets v Nadal in a match that took place late last night.

Competing in what will hopefully be the first of many Grand Slam quarter finals, the 19-year-old Italian served for the first set at 6-5, and was a break up in the second set – but reigning champ Rafa reeled him in every time. Nadal was just too good.

The remaining four quarter finals all take place today. Play starts from 11am. Here’s the schedule for Court Philippe-Chatrier:

  • Petra Kvitova v Laura Siegemund
  • Danielle Collins v Sofia Kenin
  • Andrey Rublev v Stefanos Tsitsipas
  • Novak Djokovic v Pablo Carreno-Busta

We have two of our Outright Winner picks in action there. Rublev (50/1 & 66/1) is the underdog v Tsitsipas. The positive for the Russian is that he beat Tsitsipas 2-1 in the ATP Hamburg final just the other week. This should be a good match.

Collins v Kenin…

Sofia Kenin (33/1 & 40/1) takes on Danielle Collins in an all-American clash – something you don’t say very often at clay-court events, let alone at the biggest one of all.  But such is the situation here at the French Open 2020, you really can’t rule anything out.

Much is being made of the 3-0 career head-to-head in favour of Collins. All of those wins came in straight sets, too. But here’s the most important thing as I see it: none of those matches were at a Grand Slam. Collins does have experience at this level, but Australian Open winner Kenin has the superior big-match, big-time mentality in my opinion. This is also their first meeting on clay.

These two young American women both absolutely hate losing. This will be feisty. If you happen to be playing any Wednesday afternoon drinking games while watching this (who am I to judge), then taking a shot of something strong every time the TV commentators use the word ‘feisty’ is likely to get you pretty tipsy…

Despite the head-to-head, the bookies are with the higher-ranked player here. Kenin is the 4/7 (1.57) favourite to win today. Collins is 6/4 (2.5). If you want to protect your stakes on Sofia, then a match bet on the underdog would do that job for you.

I’m interested in the Total Double Faults market…

Jannik Sinner gave us a Most Aces winner yesterday (2-0 aces v Nadal). We return to the serving stats today, with the potential for some pressured second serves and the occasional nervy double fault in this women’s quarter final.

A couple of bookies are getting involved this morning, and they’ve set the line at Over 6.5 Double Faults. Considering Collins beat that match total on her own in her last two matches, with 7 double faults v Garbine Muguruza, and then 8 against Ons Jabeur. That 6.5 line could well get overtaken today.

Kenin’s individual double fault tallies so far at this French Open have been: 4, 3, 4, 3.

With the potential for this encounter to go the distance – three of both women’s four matches so far in the tournament have gone to three sets – then the more games that are played, the more chances there will be to serve double faults.

Considering Bet365 are going Over 8.5 with their line, the 6.5 available elsewhere looks to be a little bit of value.

Ones to Watch:

Danielle Collins v Sofia Kenin

  • Total Double Faults: Over 6.5 Double Faults is 17/20 (1.85) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 4/5 (1.8) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

You can watch live on the Eurosport channels, website & app. On selected bookie websites with a funded account. And on ITV4.

I’ll be back on Thursday morning with your Day 12 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch