Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020
French Open: Day 12 – Women’s Semi Finals…
Thursday 8th October 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Welcome to Day 12 of the French Open…
At the double…
The bookies were quick to alter their Total Double Faults line yesterday morning. As it turned out, Danielle Collins beat the Over 6.5 match target all on her own, serving 8 double faults in defeat to Sofia Kenin.
With 4 served up by Kenin, too, the total ended at 12 Double Faults. By the first game of the second set, the American pair had already notched 8 doubles between them.
Lines and prices…
Things aren’t always plain sailing like that one. And the odds were only modest. With a bet like that, the value is also contained in the Over/ Under line – not just the price.
That’s a point noted by Ones to Watch member Jon R before the match yesterday:
“It's a shame that, after putting in all that work on the Collins Kenin double faults, the bookies have changed the goalposts. Both Paddy P and Betfair Sp have gone to over 7.5 at 4/6, which is worse in both aspects. Of course it may still be a shoe-in but is a no bet for me.”
As I said to Jon – always make your own decisions. Sticking to your guns, and not accepting a price (or Over/ Under line) where you feel the value is gone, is smart betting.
We can’t control what the bookies do. And it’s a shame they’re so twitchy and tentative with Aces and Double Faults markets. The latter stages of the four Grand Slams are pretty much the only times all year that we get to tackle the serving stats in that way.
Small servings this morning…
As I write this morning, with the sky still dark at my window, only Bet365 and Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook have got Aces and Double Faults options available for today’s women’s semi finals.
Iga Swiatek has hit just 3 aces in the tournament so far. Opponent Nadia Podoroska, across her five matches, has racked up just 4 aces. No surprise, then, that the bookies are going low on the totals in this one. Bet365 go Under 1.5 Aces in the match at Evens (2.0). Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook go an ace higher, with Under 2.5 Aces priced at 5/6 (1.83).
Of the two options, Under 2.5 would be the most appealing. But as I say, it’s slim pickings. There’s no sign of those stats markets with 888 Sport and Unibet this time. And Skybet seem to have stopped pricing them up, having had a full range of options for some of the 4th round matches earlier this week.
The stats for the second semi final are as follows…
Petra Kvitova’s big-hitting, all or nothing playing style is reflected in her serving numbers: 24 aces and 17 double faults so far.
Sofia Kenin has served just 3 aces in total (none in the first three rounds). And 18 double faults.
Sonya has played four more sets of tennis than her Czech opponent, with the American having won 2-1 in four out of five matches, while Kvitova is yet to drop a set in the tournament.
Kvitova is very short odds-on for the Most Aces, 1/20 (1.05) with Bet365. And 1/100 (1.01) with Paddy & Betfair. No, thank you.
Those bookmakers are in agreement on the Total Double Faults, with Over 7.5 a 5/6 (1.83) shot. Taking the match average totals from Kvitova and Kenin combined, the figure comes out at 7 double faults. No value stands out for us in the lines or prices this time.
A big day…
Aces and Double Faults are only an occasional Grand Slam hunting trip for us.
The Outright Winner market is the one that we target every week of the season. Where we specialise in going after appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices.
Not for the first time, a women’s Grand Slam has provided us with the best run from our Ones to Watch players…
We have a big-price pick running for us in each of the women’s French Open semi finals today:
Iga Swiatek v Nadia Podoroska
Sofia Kenin v Petra Kvitova
Today is a big one for us. It could even be our biggest day of the year.
Both players are one win away from reaching the final and delivering an Each Way payout. That’s easier said than done. But one thing’s for sure – we have great prices on our side...
Our two semi-finalists…
Swiatek and Kenin both appeared in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2020 list.
From starting prices of 80/1 and 100/1 here at the French Open, and around 33/1 in general, Swiatek is now the bookies’ 11/8 (2.38) favourite to win the whole thing.
The teenager has the talent, skills and attitude to do it. A more unknown quantity is how the 19-year-old will deal with the new pressure of being the favourite, making history, and when nerves come in (or stress, as she calls it).
My opinion is that Iga can do this today. For me, she’s the real deal. Opponent Podoroska – a qualifier at this tournament – is also very much in uncharted territory, too.
In the second semi, our player is the outsider in the betting…
And unlike the first match up this afternoon, Kenin v Kvitova sees two Grand Slam champions going toe to toe…
As if we need reminding, Kenin was a 50/1 winner for us at the Australian Open in January. After that, the 21-year-old American owes us nothing. Despite clay not being her best surface, Sonya has shown her trademark grit and determination to reach a first semi final at the French Open.
In terms of mental strength and willpower, Kenin and Kvitova are right up there at the top of the women’s game.
Petra is a two-time Wimbledon winner (2011, 2014). In her stellar career, the 30-year-old Czech left-hander has also finished runner-up at the Australian Open last year, and reach the semis here at Roland Garros (2012).
In the Outright Winner market, we got on Kenin at 40/1 and 33/1 after the 1st round. That price is now down to 4/1.
As I always say with our outsider picks – it only takes one…
In terms of reaching the final to secure an Each Way place payout, we have two bites of the cherry today.
Play starts from 2pm.
You can watch live on the Eurosport channels, website & app. On selected bookie websites with a funded account. And on ITV4.
I’ll be back on Friday morning with your Day 13 email.
Enjoy the tennis…