Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020

French Open: Day 14 – Swiatek v Kenin…

Saturday 10th October 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • French Open – Day 14…
  • Women’s Final…
  • Swiatek v Kenin…

Welcome to Day 14 of the French Open…

And relax…

It’s been 252 days since we sat down on a rainy Saturday morning to watch 50/1 shot Sofia Kenin take on Garbine Muguruza in the Australian Open final.

I remember that was a particularly nerve-shredding and exciting day.

This afternoon’s French Open women’s final should be all about the excitement and less about the nerves – from our part, anyway…

Two big ones…

With both finalists in our Ones to Watch book at big prices, it’s a win-win situation.

And even if you happen to have only got on one of Kenin or Iga Swiatek at this tournament, an Each Way bet would still mean you have a healthy payout to look forward to today.

Judging by my inbox though, it looks like you’ve scooped up plenty of huge prices on both women. It absolutely made my day to read those emails yesterday...

Members on Swiatek at 28/133/150/166/180/1100/1. With some of you going in twice. Once when we flagged the teenager up as Ones to Watch for this tournament back in July. Then again on day one in Paris two weeks ago, when the odds had drifted and there was 100/1 floating around.

And Kenin in the book at 40/1 and 33/1 across the board. Fantastic stuff.

The glory days like this don’t come along very often. Enjoy the final today.

Wine or Pepsi Max…

Our Ones to Watch readership stretches far and wide…

Jon in Thailand will be watching the final in the evening, local time.

Gabriel in Ethiopia is anticipating a great match: “I’ve never seen two determined pitbull spirits like Swiatek and Kenin. It’s bound to be something else!”

Malcolm is looking forward to celebrating with a few glasses of red wine.

John B has to drive this afternoon, so he’s on the Pepsi Max with his ploughman’s lunch – before moving on to something stronger in the evening.

Andy has told his wife they can use the winnings to pay for some work to be done in the garden.

I’m smiling from ear to ear reading these emails. Thanks so much for writing in. I haven’t been able to reply to every one yet. But I will.

You can get me on:

Swiatek v Kenin…

Today’s final has all the ingredients of being a good one.

The 19-year-old Swiatek has been the form player of the tournament, yet to drop a set, winning all six matches, 2-0. She’s very exciting to watch, hitting the ball with frightening pace and power.

Aussie Open champ Kenin has had to tough it out, winning four of her six matches in three sets, 2-1. Sonya has the smarts to push the ball where it needs to go to steer rallies her way, and can turn defence into attack.

Both women will look to jump all over the other’s second serve. Kenin has one of the best returns in the game. Iga is shaping up that way, too, thanks to her pure aggression.

In terms of experience, Kenin may only be 21 years of age, but she’s reached six finals since the start of 2019 – and won five of them. Including, of course, a Grand Slam title in Melbourne.

Remarkably, Swiatek will be looking to lift a first senior trophy of her career. The teenager has reached one WTA final so far, finishing runner-up on clay at Lugano last April.

So far, the teenager has kept any nerves in check. The exuberance of youth has been the stronger factor. When Jelena Ostapenko (another 100/1 youngster) won the French Open in 2017, that was the Latvian’s first senior trophy.

Going into this afternoon’s championship match, the bookmakers have Swiatek as the 4/7 (1.57) favourite. They clearly fear the young gun and want to stay on the right side of her. Kenin is the 6/4 (2.5) underdog – just as she was against Muguruza in the Australian Open final.

Serving stats…

Regardless of the rosy situation in our Outright book, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t keep an eye out for any value in today’s betting. On that subject, Kenin for the Most Aces stands out at around 6/4 (2.5).

The American can be expected to get a racket on most of Swiatek’s serves. The Polish youngster has hit just 3 aces in the tournament so far, at an average of 0.5 per match.

Sonya has racked up a modest 6 aces, with half of that total coming in the semi final against the big-hitting Petra Kvitova.

Swiatek hit zero aces in the last round, as hasn’t managed more than one in a single match so far. One or two could genuinely be enough for Kenin to land the odds today.

In contrast, the Most Double Faults market is firmly leaning towards the American, odds-on at 4/11 (1.36) and 2/5 (1.4). The tournament stats have Kenin on 21 double faults, with Swiatek much lower at just 6 doubles. Whether nerves mess with those figures today, we’ll have to wait and see.

At odds-against, Sonya for the Most Aces is my price pick for today’s match.

Ones to Watch:

Iga Swiatek v Sofia Kenin

  • Most Aces: Kenin is 15/8 (2.88) with 888 Sport, Unibet (‘-0.5 Aces’), 6/4 (2.50) Bet365, William Hill, 13/10 (2.3) Betway, 5/4 (2.25) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Play starts 2pm.

You can watch live on the Eurosport channels, website & app. On selected bookie websites with a funded account. And on ITV4.

I’ll be back on Sunday morning with your Day 15 email.


No rest for the wicked…

As the French Open draws to a close this weekend, the qualifying rounds are taking place at no fewer than three ATP tournaments.

With the 1st rounds proper scheduled for Monday morning, we’ll be taking a first look at the Outright Winner markets in those events, with the return of our Sunday Night Club email tomorrow evening.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch