Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020
French Open: Day 7 – two underdog picks…
Saturday 3rd October 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Welcome to Day 7 of the French Open…
Anything can happen in sport, and we were reminded of that yet again yesterday.
I like to look out for shocks and upsets, but I can’t say that I saw Hugo Gaston coming…
Coming into the French Open, the French wildcard had never won a match at this level, and never faced a Top 50 player. He came out on Friday and beat former Roland Garros champion Stan Wawrinka.
That match result was 10/1 and bigger on the day. Wawrinka was in our early book for this tournament. At times, it was hard to believe the quality of the 20-year-old newcomer’s play. Even more amazing, he kept it up for five sets.
On a better note for our own purposes, teenagers Iga Swiatek and Jannik Sinner are both through to the 4th round, and are both yet to drop a set.
The three other names in our big-odds Outright Winner book are in action today – Andrey Rublev, Fiona Ferro, and Sofia Kenin.
Ferro and Kenin are both playing on centre court, Philippe Chatrier, where there will be a modest crowd in the stadium. I reckon that injection of atmosphere will work in our players’ favour today.
Elsewhere on Day 6, the drama and entertainment included an epic half-hour tiebreak in the third set between Lorenzo Sonego and Taylor Fritz. And Italian outsider Martina Trevisan saving two match points and fighting back to beat Maria Sakkari.
Two underdog picks for today…
We had a decent underdog result yesterday with Caroline Garcia landing the odds against Elise Mertens at around 13/5 (3.6).
Two more women’s matches catch the eye as upset potential today, in the bottom half of the women’s draw…
Aryna Sabalenka v Ons Jabeur
The first meeting between these two should be fun. Sabalenka is the favourite, but as such hard to trust. Her game is win or bust – she goes 100% on pretty much every shot, with a big yell to match. When the level drops, and she starts spraying more unforced errors than winners, it can get pretty ugly.
Jabeur brings power of her own, but also, crucially, the racket skills to knit together rallies punctuated with drop-shots and mean, swerving slice. Tools that can expose limitations in Sabalenka’s movement.
In a match that could be decided by errors, Jabeur is the value at 13/8 (2.63).
Petra Martic v Laura Siegemund
This is a big match for two women who will both feel they should’ve made more inroads at Grand Slams than they have thus far.
Martic was a 50/1 pick for us here at the French Open last year, reaching the quarter finals. The year before, in 2018, Siegemund was a One to Watch selection at 66/1, with the clay-court specialist returning to the tour after a horrible injury absence.
The German is the value in this match. Martic has laboured with a tight 7-6, 7-5 win in the 1st round this week, followed by a three-set battle where she needed to come from a set down.
Siegemund benefitted from another mental collapse from Kristina Mladenovic in round one (and a dodgy umpire decision after a double-bounce). After winning the US Open Doubles last month, an early exit from the Doubles this time might just allow Laura to do something in the Singles…
The 32-year-old has won a massive 408 clay court matches in her career (compared to 153 for 29-year-old Martic). All six of Siegemund’s title wins at all levels have come on clay; two on the main WTA Tour, and four on the lower-tier ITF circuit.
The match upset appeals here at odds of 9/5 (2.8).
Ones to Watch:
Play starts today from 10am, with those two matches due on court from 11.30am onwards.
You can watch the French Open live on the Eurosport channels, website & app. On selected bookie websites with a funded account. And on ITV4.
I’ll be back on Sunday morning with your Day 8 email.
Enjoy the tennis…