Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020

French Open: Podoroska the pick on Day 8…

Sunday 4th October 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • French Open – Day 8…
  • 4th Round…
  • Podoroska v Krejcikova…

Welcome to Day 8 of the French Open…

Looking to break new ground…

The 4th round takes place today and Monday.

These Last 16 matches are when things start to feel a bit more ‘big-time.’

Win this one, and you’re through to a Grand Slam quarter final…

Four of the eight women playing in the top half of the draw today are looking to reach a Major quarter final for the first time in their career.

Italian qualifier Martina Trevisan has won six matches in a row to get to this stage, taking out Coco Gauff and Maria Sakkari in the main draw along the way. Today, another big name stands in the way, no.5 seed Kiki Bertens.

Our early-bird tournament outsider pick, Iga Swiatek takes on Simona Halep. Right now, Roland Garros assignments don’t come any tougher than taking on Halep…

The Romanian is a former champion here, and has reached the final three times in the last six years. Simona is top seed in 2020, on a 13-match winning streak on clay since play resumed this summer, and the bookies’ Even Money (2.0) favourite to lift the trophy again.

We’ve got an exciting young player taking on Halep. It’s a prime Ones to Watch situation for us. Last year, Halep and teenager Swiatek also met in the French Open 4th round. Halep breezed through 6-1, 6-0. The 19-year-old can make it a lot closer today.

Nadia Podoroska v Barbora Krejcikova

The other two women looking to break new ground and reach the quarter finals today are 23-year-old Nadia Podoroska of Argentina and 24-year-old Barbora Krejcikova of the Czech Republic…

Both are ranked outside the world’s Top 100. This is the only 4th round match today not being played on the main two show courts. But whoever wins today will certainly be in the spotlight.

These two have both been quietly mounting up the clay court wins this summer…

On the comeback after a wrist injury in 2017, Podoroska is a winning machine right now:

Since the start of August, the Argentinean has won 21 out of 23 matches on clay. And is currently on an 11-match streak, having won an ITF event in France last month, before coming through qualifying & the first three rounds here at the French Open.

Krejickova isn’t far behind in terms of current form. The Czech player has won 23 out of 28 matches on clay at all levels since the tennis returned after lockdown. That includes taking a set off Halep in Prague.

These two have never met before on tour. The bookies have Podoroska as the 1/2 (1.5) favourite to win through today. The Argentinean is my pick, too, but I want to boost the odds by taking 6/5 (2.2) in the Set Betting market, for a 2-0 win.

Nine of Podoroska’s 11 consecutive victories have been delivered in straight sets. Nadia looks to have the cleaner game than Krejcikova, and I get the feeling her run in Paris isn’t about to end yet.

An underdog win over Tsvetana Pironkova in the last round had the feeling of a final about it for today’s Czech opponent. A hard-fought, three-set victory that Krejcikova dedicated to her compatriot, tennis legend, and her former coach, the late Jana Novotna, on what would’ve been Novotna’s 52nd birthday. We could see a drop-off after that emotional win.

Podoroska to continue her smooth progress is my selection today.

Seeds continue to fall…

This French Open continues to throw up plenty of surprises and against-the-odds results.

Half of the women’s 3rd round matches played on Saturday were won by the underdog in the betting.

Including Danielle Collins knocking out one of the tournament favourites, former Roland Garros winner Garbine Muguruza, at odds of 7/2 (4.5).

And our two match picks yesterday, with Ons Jabeur and Laura Siegemund, both overturning the odds to win in three sets against seeded opponents Aryna Sabalenka and Petra Martic, respectively.

In the men’s, two Top 10 seeds were sent packing yesterday, with Roberto Bautista-Agut losing to fellow Spaniard, Pablo Carreno-Busta.

Daniel Altmaier shocked Matteo Berrettini, 3-0. Altmaier was 4/1 to win that one, and 18/1 to do it in straight sets. The 22-year-old German is a name that cropped up a couple of times in our ‘lockdown picks,’ when the tennis returned in May with a series of exhibition events. He’s now on a run of nine out of 10 match wins on clay.

Our big-price contenders…

Yesterday went well for our Outright Winner selections, with Andrey Rublev (50/1+), Sofia Kenin (33/1+) and Fiona Ferro (50/1+) all winning through to the 4th round, where they’ll play on Monday for a place in the quarter finals.

Kenin and Ferro will face each other, meaning we’re guaranteed a player in the Last 8 at a great price.

Two more names carry the underdog flag for us today…

As discussed, teenager Iga Swiatek takes on the tournament favourite, Simona Halep.

In the men’s, another impressive 19-year-old on the up, Jannik Sinner, is the match outsider against Alexander Zverev.

With both Swiatek and Sinner touching 80/1 and 100/1+ in Outright markets earlier this week and pre-tournament, those two youngsters from our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2020 list have already done us proud. If they can get through today, then we’ll legitimately be able to get a bit excited.

Fun fact…

Elina Svitolina v Caroline Garcia should be an entertaining match today…

Svitolina is one the tournament favourites, and looking to shake off the ‘never reached a Grand Slam final’ tag.

Garcia was touted as a teenager as a future world no.1, but hasn’t quite lived up that branding yet. She’ll have the 1,000-strong French crown behind her on court Philippe Chatrier this afternoon.

In the last round we got a nice 13/5 (3.6) price on Garcia to beat another seeded player, Elise Mertens. Today, there’s less value to be had, with odds of 6/4 (2.5) against a higher-ranked opponent (Svitolina is no.5 in the world, Mertens is no.20).

Fun fact:

Investigation of the recent head-to-head record between Svitolina and Garcia shows that in each of their last three meetings, Garcia has come from a set down and a break of serve down to win, 2-1.

In all three instances, the Frenchwomen recovered after losing the opening set on a tiebreak, 7-6.

Those might just be quirks of the formbook. But could act as good-to-know pointers for anyone betting in-play today. Or, if you’re watching on TV, and just want to wow (or bore) whoever is in the room with you.

Ones to Watch:

Nadia Podoroska v Barbora Krejcikova

Set Betting:

  • Nadia Podoroska to win 2-0 is 6/5 (2.2) with Bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/10 (2.1) in general

Play starts today from 10am, with that match due on court from 11.30am onwards.

You can watch the French Open live on the Eurosport channels, website & app. On selected bookie websites with a funded account. And on ITV4.

I’ll be back on Monday morning with your Day 9 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch