Tennis Betting Advice - October 2021

ATP Indian Wells - rising stars at 33/1...

Thursday 7th October 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • ATP Indian Wells – starts 7pm…
  • Outright Winner picks…
  • Ones to Watch at 33/1…

There was a familiar WTA scoreboard flip-flop last night, and it went our way…

Sloane Stephens was a set and a break down to Heather Watson, trailing 6-7, 0-1. But after that, the American got her game-face on – and didn’t lose serve again for the remainder of the match. Turning the tables to win 6-7, 7-5, 6-1. Our 100/1 shot survives, and moves into round two at Indian Wells.

  • View yesterday’s women’s Outright Winner preview here

The men get underway in the Californian desert today. Play starts from 7pm UK time, and all the matches are being shown live on Amazon Prime Video…

Next Gen leading the way…

The big three are all missing here. No Novak Djokovic, no Rafael Nadal, and no Roger Federer.

Those guys have had a stranglehold on the ATP Masters 1000 and Grand Slam titles for a decade and counting. Between them, Novak, Rafa & Roger have scooped 13 of the last 16 Indian Wells trophies.

With the big boys out, the new kids on the block get another chance to grab their moment in the sun…

The bookies are no fools, of course, and have priced the leading Next Gen names accordingly:

World no.2 and recent US Open champion, Daniil Medvedev is top seed and 2/1 (3.0) favourite. That price is with Boylesports. In general, the 25-year-old Russian is 7/4 (2.75). Medvedev is in the top half of the draw.

In the bottom half, 23-year-old Greek world no.3 and French Open runner-up, Stefanos Tsitsipas is 2nd seed and 7/1 in general (8/1 at Boylesports).

Sandwiched in-between those two, 3rd seed and world no.4, Alexander Zverev is the forecasted semi-final opponent for Tsitsipas – if the tournament was played on paper and followed the seedings. The 24-year-old German is 4/1 and 5/1 in general, with Betfred sticking their next out with the best price this time, at 6/1.

Next in line is Andrey Rublev. The 23-year-old Russian is no.5 in the world rankings, and the 4th seed. Rublev is 16/1 – with Betfred again top price, at 20/1. If the seedings were to be taken as gospel, then the semi-final in the top half of the Indian Wells draw would be Medvedev v Rublev.

Tennis isn’t played on paper, though, and there’s definitely scope for a different youngster to emerge from the pack. At bigger prices than the four Next Gen lads listed above…

ATP Indian Wells – Ones to Watch…

Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Zverev, and Rublev are all former members of our pre-season Ones to Watch lists. It could prove fruitful, then, to refer to this year’s 2021 report for names to look out for at tasty prices in the States this week…

In terms of the young guns, players to note from our current crop of Ones to Watch 2021 include:

Brandon Nakashima – the American turned 20 in August, just days after reaching the second of his back-to-back ATP finals. He was runner-up on outdoor hard courts at both Los Cabos, Mexico, and Atlanta, USA – the first two finals of his Senior pro career.

In the Outright Winner betting for ATP Indian Wells this week, Nakashima is 100/1 in general, with Unibet double the odds at 200/1. He’s in a section of the draw that includes some big servers, namely Wimbledon finalist and 5th seed Matteo Berrettini, and fellow Americans, Taylor Fritz and John Isner.

Also in that 3rd Quarter of the draw is our 33/1 Miami Open runner-up from March this year, Jannik Sinner

The 20-year-old Italian is up to a new career high of no.14 in the world, on the back of a title win at ATP Sofia on indoor hard courts last time out. Sinner is getting used to competing for trophies, and he looks born to do it.

  • Jannik has won three ATP titles this season, with the other two both coming outdoors on hard courts (Washington, USA and Melbourne, Australia). Add in that appearance in the prestigious Miami Masters final, and this is one young man destined for the top. Odds of 33/1 and 28/1 make Sinner an outsider to follow again here

Other Ones to Watch listed youngsters in the Indian Wells field include 21-year-old Sebastian Korda (66/1), who will likely have to overcome another of our regular picks for the future, 200/1 Wimbledon semi-finalist Hubert Hurkacz. The Pole won Miami at 100/1, beating Sinner in the final. This time, the 24-year-old is 33/1 at best.

The prospect of Seb Korda and Hubi Hurkacz having to play each other before we even get to the quarter finals – and this also being Medvedev’s quarter of the draw – puts me off backing those two here. Both are great rising stars though, and we’re sure to be following them again soon.

Young guns lining up…

Elsewhere, 21-year-old Felix Auger-Aliassime (33/1 Bet365, 28/1 general) is getting closer to fulfilling some of his immense promise. Felix has got all the talent in the world, but a ‘played eight, lost eight’ record in finals hints at a slight mental edge that is missing from his game right now. Working with Rafa Nadal’s Uncle Toni should help address that, moving forward.

Other young names to look out for, either here or in events to come and next season, include the very exciting teenagers, 18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz, and 19-year-old Lorenzo Musetti. Priced here at 50/1 and 250/1, respectively.

As well as the fast-rising 20-year-old American, Jenson Brooksby. He reached the ATP Newport final for us in July as a 22/1 shot. Since then, Jenson has reached the semi final on hard courts at Washington (lost to Sinner). And a very credible 4th round at the US Open in New York, where he impressed in a four-set defeat to world no.1 Djokovic. Brooksby is 80/1 in general, with Bet365 at 150/1, and Betfred going 100/1.

Other outsiders with big serves and aggressive shot-making – tools that could make a dent here at Indian Wells – are 26-year-old Lorenzo Sonego, and 24-year-old Lloyd Harris. Both have claimed big scalps in the past 12 months, taking advantage of opportunities to play the big guns when they weren’t at 100%. With Sonego beating Djokovic, and Harris triumphing over Nadal. Going all the way would be a big ask at this tournament – but odds of 80/1 each will appeal to some, I’m sure.

Sonego is a top price 100/1 with Unibet, Betfred, and Boylesports. Last week at ATP San Diego, the Italian knocked off both Seb Korda and the unpredictable-but-dangerous Nikoloz Basilashvili. Before being stopped in straight sets in the quarter finals by this man…

Casper Ruud went on to lift the trophy in San Diego last week. That was a fifth ATP title of the season for the 22-year-old Norwegian – more than any other man on the tour in 2021.

Ruud has now cracked the Top 10, and with that first hard-court title adding to his handful of clay-court titles, Casper now looks set to become a threat on all surfaces. His court speed, tennis smarts, attitude and work-rate, and a truly special forehand, all add up to make him the real deal…

People call Nadal the King of Clay, and rightly so. But Rafa has also won the hard-court Grand Slams in Australia and USA, and a trolly-load of other big trophies on hard courts. I’m not saying Ruud is the new Rafa, but he certainly has the game to do well at events like this one, as well as on the orange dirt.

Plenty to chew on there, and plenty of players with underdog potential. We can’t back them all…

  • Along with Sinner, Ruud at around 33/1 ticks the box for me this week. A high-level youngster, with a genuine chance to take on and beat the higher-ranked and shorter-priced players

That gives us one pick in each side of the men’s draw. With the opportunity to add more as the early rounds progress.

Ones to Watch

ATP Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open

Outright Winner – Each Way

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

  • Jannik Sinner @ 33/1 Bet365, Betfred, 30/1 Unibet, 28/1 Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway, MansionBet, NetBet, 10Bet, Ladbrokes, Coral 
  • Casper Ruud @ 33/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Unibet, 28/1 Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, Betway, MansionBet, NetBet, 10Bet, Ladbrokes, Coral

I’ll be back soon with more picks & advice for both the men’s & women’s events in Indian Wells, with the tournament running through to next weekend.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch