Tennis Betting Advice - October 2021

Indian Wells - two form and value picks for tonight...

Friday 8th October 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Indian Wells women’s – play starts 7pm…
  • Value pick – Stephens at 2/1…
  • Form pick – Samsonova at Evens…

We’ve spent the first two days of Indian Wells getting our Outright Winner bets in the book...

With a raft of big names missing from this event, including both the men’s & women’s world number one’s – Ashleigh Barty & Novak Djokovic.

As well as global superstars Naomi Osaka, Serena Williams, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, all out of action.

The scene looks set for a big-odds breakthrough in one or both of the WTA & ATP events here at ‘Tennis Paradise’ in the Californian desert…

Indeed, there are no former Indian Wells champions in the men’s 2021 draw.

And the women’s field looks as wide-open as ever, in an event that has seen three of the last four finalists go off at giant prices: 100/1, 125/1, and 80/1.

  • So far this week I’ve sent you my tournament previews for both the men’s & women’s Outright markets. You can catch up on them here (ATP Indian Wells), and here (WTA Indian Wells)

Sticking to our Ones to Watch modus operandi – backing appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices…

We’ve got players in the book this week at odds ranging from 33/1 to 100/1. That’s the territory we love to work in.

At those prices, the rewards can be epic. But it requires patience. Player priced at those odds aren’t supposed to win. But they do.

One of our 100/1 shots is in action in the 2nd round in the very early hours of Saturday morning…

Value pick – Stephens to beat Pegula

Sloane Stephens is priced at 2/1+ (3.0+) to beat fellow American, Jessica Pegula. That simply looks too big for me.

As discussed in our women’s Outright preview, Stephens can turn on the style at any given moment. Talent-wise, she’s almost peerless at this level.

And it’s very encouraging to see that right now, Sloane looks in the best physical shape she’s been for some time.

Add in the fact that Stephens tends to bring her best efforts when playing at home in the States on hard courts. And that makes odds of 2/1 a little unfair towards the former US Open champion.

Pegula is respected. I’ve backed her several times this season, including as a 100/1 quarter-finalist at the Australian Open. But if you ask me who’s got the best tennis in them, hand on heart, it’s Stephens every time.

Form pick – Samsonova to beat Kudermetova

Sloane is my value pick for today. On the formbook front, Ludmilla Samsonova is the one to take over fellow Russian, Veronika Kudermetova.

Kudermetova was one of my pre-season Ones to Watch names last season – in the 2020 report that unearthed Grand Slam winners Sofia Kenin, and Iga Swiatek. But Veronika hasn’t yet kicked on to the level that she’s capable of. I think she could make a resurgence on the clay next year.

Samsonova was a 12/1 semi-finalist for us at WTA Luxembourg last month. We read the indoor hard-court form well that week, with our 16/1 pick Clara Tauson lifting the trophy.

Going into today’s match at Indian Wells, 22-year-old world no.42 Samsonova has won four of her last five matches. In comparison, 24-year-old Kudermetova, ranked no.31, has lost four out of six.

Kudermetova is 25th seed here, and as such had a Bye through to the 2nd round. Samsonova may be better adjusted to the conditions, having played in the 1st round on Wednesday, winning in straight sets.

Even Money quotes for Ludmilla means the in-form player is priced as the slight underdog in this one. Samsonova is the pick.

Ones to Watch

WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open

Match Winner

  • Sloane Stephens to beat Jessica Pegula @ 11/5 (3.2) Bet365, 21/10 (3.1) BetVictor, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet, Betway, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet
  • Ludmilla Samsonova to beat Veronika Kudermetova @ Evens (2.0) Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet

Play starts 7pm UK time, and you can watch live on Amazon Prime Video.

Indian Wells continues into next week, when we should start to see some exciting match-ups – and bigger crowds in the stadium, too.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch