Tennis Betting Advice - October 2021

Two 3/1 underdogs for today...

Friday 29th October 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Value selections for this afternoon…
  • Halep an injury concern…
  • Paris Masters starts Monday…

We’re off to Austria, Romania, and Italy today...

It’s quarter finals day at this week’s ATP & WTA indoor hard-court events. Three matches catch my eye as offering up value on the underdog. The first of which gets underway around 2.30pm/ 3pm, with the others following at 4pm and 6pm+. Let’s get straight down to it…

ATP Vienna, Austria:

Felix Auger-Aliassime to beat Alexander Zverev @ 3/1

Two Next Gen stars here, with the higher-ranked German, world no.4 Zverev, the bigger name as it stands. Indeed, 12th-ranked Auger-Aliassime is still searching for a first career ATP title (eight and zero in finals).

However, the Canadian has all the tools to become a Top 5 player himself. The one blot I’ve put by Auger-Aliassime in recent seasons has been a tendency to wilt a little when the pressure is on. Saving match points to beat the in-form Cameron Norrie in the last round will have provided a great mental boost. As will the fact that Felix beat Zverev at Wimbledon this summer, coming through a five-set battle, and in doing so halting what had been a 0-3 tour head-to-head v the German.

WTA Cluj-Napoca, Romania:

Jaqueline Cristian to beat Simona Halep @ 15/4

Grand Slam champ and former world no.1 Halep has a flawless tour record against fellow Romanians. But Simona isn’t her top self this season, blighted by injuries, most notably with respect to this match, battling a back problem just yesterday. The 30-year-old managed to play through the pain and win through. Simona is a fighter, but these post-match comments don’t instil too much confidence moving forward:

“It's just a back block - I've had it before and I know how to manage it, I think. I just keep playing. Sometimes I lose these matches, sometimes I stop - but today I felt being at home I had to fight more"

Another player at home – and also in my book as a fighter – is the unheralded 23-year-old world no.105, Cristian. I’ve seen Jaqueline play a few times now, and she likes a battle, and isn’t afraid to fist-pump and show her opponent she’s in it to win it. I fancy she’ll be keen to make a statement against her superstar compatriot here. Coming out on court here at the Transylvania Open this week with a ‘Dracula’ cape and collar on suggests she has the self-confidence to stand up to her potentially injured big-name opponent today.

  • Note: With question marks over Halep’s ability to last the duration, I’m recommending betting on the underdog Cristian with bookies that pay out ‘if one set is played’ (see below). Skybet void bets on the ‘losing player’ if they retire, whilst also paying out on the ‘winning player’ that goes through to the next round

WTA Courmayeur, Italy:

Jasmine Paolini to beat Dayana Yastremska @ 13/10

Yastremska is a player we’ve been tracking since making her comeback, having been cleared of any wrongdoing after a doping investigation. The Ukrainian is making small steps, and I reckon she could land us a winner or two next year.

Right now, though, Italian opponent Paolini is the woman in form. And with the home player priced up as the underdog today, that doesn’t look quite right to me. Yastremska hasn’t yet managed to string together three consecutive match wins this season. Jasmine is having the best time of her career, with the 25-year-old winning 10 out of 13 matches on hard courts since the US Open. She’s collected maiden WTA titles in 2021, including one during that recent winning run.

Ones to Watch

Match Winner:

  • Felix Auger-Aliassime to beat Alexander Zverev @ 3/1 (4.0) Boylesports, Skybet, BetVictor, Betway 
  • Jaqueline Cristian to beat Simona Halep @ 15/4 (4.75) Marathonbet, 7/2 (4.5) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, 10/3 (4.33) Betfred, 888 Sport, 16/5 (4.2) Ladbrokes, Coral
  • Jasmine Paolini to beat Dayana Yastremska @ 13/10 (2.3) Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 5/4 (2.25) Skybet, 6/5 (2.2) Bet365, BetVictor

There’s a big tournament for us next week. The ATP 1000 Paris Masters starts from Monday. I’ll see you then, with day-one price picks & players to follow.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch