Tennis Betting Advice - October 2022
Astana Open - Ones to Watch at 16/1 and 40/1...
Monday 3rd October 2022
Good evening. As I write, the Outright Winner markets for the women's events in Tunisia and the Czech Republic aren't yet back up, but they will be early in the morning. If there's anything I spot in time to act before Tuesday's play begins at 11am (UK time) at WTA Monastir and WTA Ostrava, I'll let you know.
For tonight, though, my focus is on the men...
This week's two strong-fielded ATP 500-grade events are in Tokyo, and Astana (formerly Nur-Sultan).
The Japan tournament sees this summer's Wimbledon runner-up Nick Kyrgios as a 3/1 favourite for the title, with last month's beaten US Open finalist Casper Ruud not far behind at around 5/1.
In Kazakhstan, the Astana Open betting is headed up by some very big names...
With last week's ATP Tel Aviv champion Novak Djokovic the 13/8 (2.63) favourite, just in front of teenage world no.1 and new US Open champ Carlos Alcaraz at 5/2 (3.5). Along with Novak, another recent former no.1 at a short price near the front of the market is Daniil Medvedev at 7/2 (4.5). Stefanos Tsitsipas makes up a quartet of a single-figure quotes, at 9/1 at best.
Here at Ones to Watch we like to go after bigger prices, and not chase the supposed 'sure thing' of backing the household names.
One player I feel is slightly underrated here in the ATP Astana Outright Winner market is HUBERT HURKACZ. In his last five ATP Tour events, the Polish world no.10 has reached two finals and a semi final. With the most recent showing being a semi indoors at Metz just last week. Hubi can build on that by riding the fast courts indoors again here in Astana. Indeed, he's already through to the 2nd round after a straight-sets 2-0 win earlier today.
Despite that result, Hurkacz's pre-tournament price of 16/1 is still available this evening - largely due to the fact that Djokovic et al are yet to take the court. Any slip-ups or injury problems for the big names, and Hubert Hurkacz is exactly the kind of Mr Consistent to step up to the plate.
For a bigger-priced runner, KAREN KHACHANOV at 40/1 is one I want to flag up. Back in 2018, the Russian won three tournaments on indoor hard courts, including the prestigious Paris Masters (at 40/1). This season he's produced his best form since that year, reaching the US Open semi finals last time out, for his first career Grand Slam semi.
If Karen can take that confidence and momentum through to this week's event, starting with a tricky, most-likely serve-dominated encounter with Maxime Cressy on Tuesday morning (6am). Then world no.18 Khachanov could prove a dark horse at big odds.
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ATP Astana – Astana Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Hubert Hurkacz @ 16/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, 14/1 Skybet, William Hill, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral
Karen Khachanov @ 40/1 Bet365, BetVictor, William Hill, 39/1 Betway, 33/1 Skybet, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral
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Play starts from 6am UK time. Bookmakers take down their Outright Winner markets during the day's play.
Want to get in touch? Email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson