Tennis Betting Advice - October 2022
WTA San Diego - Ones to Watch at 20/1 and 100/1...
Monday 10th October 2022
There are four tournaments on the calendar this week. The biggest one is WTA San Diego, a 500-grade event played on outdoor hard courts.
As a 500 event with a chunky prize-pot, the San Diego Open has attracted a strong field. Headed up by world no.1 and last week’s WTA 500 Ostrava runner-up, Iga Swiatek. The 21-year-old Pole is the 3/1 favourite, across the boards. Swiatek has made the final in eight of her last 12 tournaments, lifting the trophy in seven of them. That remarkable 2022 form includes Grand Slam titles at the French Open and US Open, as well as starting the year with a semi final at the Australian Open.
Another form player, although less well-established at the top table, is Liudmila Samsonova. As I’m sure you’ll remember, we were on the 23-year-old Russian at massive odds at the US Open (made the Last 16). Either side of the big one in New York, Samsonova has won three out of three WTA titles, with the most recent being the 500-grade event in Toyko. Samsonova was 17/2 (9.5) in Tokyo, and goes off at similar prices in the States this week. Priced as a 7/1 (8.0) second-favourite in the San Diego Outright Winner market, alongside two-time US Open semi-finalist Aryna Sabalenka.
Samsonova has been handed a tough break in the draw, with the withdrawal of Beatriz Haddad Maia seeing the rejigged drawsheet pit Liudmila up against 2019 US Open champion Bianca Andreescu in the 1st round, with French Open runner-up Coco Gauff a likely next opponent, and then Swiatek. All those to go through, just to reach the semi finals.
The powerful but unreliable Aryna Sabalenka also has a tough return to action, taking the court for the first time since New York. The 24-year-old Belarusian, ranked no.5 in the world, is one of the top seeds here, giving her a Bye through to the 2nd round. Where she’ll start against either the in-form Veronika Kudermetova, or the ever-unpredictable Sloane Stephens. Sabalenka owns winning head-to-heads v both players. Aryna remains top of the WTA 2022 stats leaderboard for Double Faults though, and if the yips come back on serve again this week, then 7/1 is going to look more like a price to lay.
Ones to Watch at 20/1 and 100/1…
KAROLINA PLISKOVA was a big let-down last time out (and I’ve said that more than once before). But I’m willing to give the big-serving Czech one more roll here. The 30-year-old is 3rd in the official WTA standings for Most Aces this season. And a return to outdoor hard courts in North America could see the former US Open finalist find her rhythm once again…
Last week’s 1st-round defeat indoors in Ostrava to the unheralded Alycia Parks doesn’t look quite as bad in hindsight, considering the 21-year-old American went on to reach a maiden WTA quarter final – and was only stopped by the eventual tournament champ, Barbora Krejcikova.
In big events on outdoor hard courts in North America this summer, Pliskova reached the semi final at the US Open, and the semis at the 1000-grader in Toronto. As with many women on the tour right now, Karolina carries the ‘hard to predict’ tag. If there’s anything in this bounce-back pattern though, we could do well to keep Pliskova on our side this week…
Ahead of her semi-final run in Toronto in August, Pliskova had gone out in the 2nd round at San Jose the week prior. And before that final-four run at the US Open last month, Karolina had been knocked out early in Cincinnati, in the 2nd round.
Odds of 20/1 are a shade bigger than we got last time, and enough for me to keep Pliskova on the list this week for San Diego.
Also in the bottom half of the draw, avoiding some of the biggest names including the favourite Swiatek. A pick that could produce an outsider’s run at a massive price is ALISON RISKE-AMRITRAJ…
The American catches my eye in the draw at 100/1 and 66/1. The 32-year-old has landed in a decent-looking part of the drawsheet, with no.2 seed Paula Badosa looking a vulnerable market leader in this section. The Spaniard has failed to win more than two matches in a row in six of her last eight tournaments.
Riske-Amritraj is known as a grass-court contender in particular, but two of her three WTA singles titles have come on hard courts (one indoors). With 216 of her 419 career match wins coming on outdoor hard courts, making this her most-winningest surface.
The general point to note with Alison is that she’s a streaky player, who likes fast conditions. When she gets her serve and groundstrokes going, with a bit of confidence coursing through her veins, she can mix it with the best. There’s potential for an underdog run here, at home in the USA.
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Ones to Watch picks:
WTA San Diego – San Diego Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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Play starts from 7.30pm today, UK time. Bookies take down their Outright Winner markets while the matches are taking place.
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson