Tennis Betting Advice - October 2022

The Last Lap? Veteran value today at 99/1...

Tuesday 25th October 2022

It was only last week that we were talking about the sometimes thorny issue of Wild Cards - and the topic has reared its head again…

While teenager Leo Borg got his latest wild-card tournament entry at home in Sweden (with his famous dad Bjorn watching from the sidelines in Stockholm). Italian veteran Andreas Seppi was denied wild card requests at both ATP Naples and ATP Florence. An understandably tough decision to take on the chin for the 38-year-old Seppi, who is retiring at the end of the season.

The last lap…

Seppi has instead turned his attention to the lower-tier Challenger Tour. Staying with Italian venues, this week he’s competing at the Ortisei Challenger, played on indoor hard courts. Andreas has played this event four times before, albeit not since 2017. Reaching the final three times, and winning it twice.

The bookies went up for today’s 1st round match v Yannick Hanfmann with the Italian player as the slight underdog at 11/10 (2.1). A price that has started to come down this morning, with Seppi now more like 10/11 (1.91) in general, and edging towards marginal favouritism in the betting. I certainly think the outgoing home player is going to have the bit between his teeth here; each match right now really could end up being the last of his career.

Andreas has always been the kind of guy to get involved in long matches. For example, right back at the French Open 2012, Seppi played three five-set epics in a row, eventually beaten by Novak Djokovic in the Round of Last 16. And I remember him beating Roger Federer for the only time in 15 career attempts, pulling off the shock by three sets to one in a gruelling battle at the Australian Open 2015.

More recently, in standard best-of-three sets matches, four of Seppi’s last six wins have gone the distance to a decider, paying out on the Seppi 2-1 Set Betting score. That option is available at around 7/2 (4.5) today.

And along with two other veterans in action this afternoon and this evening, a trio of 3/1+ (4.0+) picks for the 2-1 score-line make up an appealing big-price bet package for us today…

Veteran value at 99/1…

Gilles Simon is another highly experienced old pro embarking on the last lap of a long and successful tennis career. As with Seppi in Italy, Frenchman Simon is playing in his home country this week, on the Challenger Tour.

The 37-year-old plays indoors in Brest today, taking on 28-year-old compatriot Laurent Lokoli. As with the Seppi-Hanfmann match-up, the Match Winner prices are pretty much 50-50, with the veteran around Even Money (2.0) as I write. Again, I like the 2-1 Set Betting option here. As with Seppi, Simon has also long carried a reputation as a player who tends to get into long matches, flirt with match points, and pull off comeback victories. The 3/1+ price for another 2-1 scrap looks promising to me.

Last but not least - and first on court today from our 30-somethings trio, scheduled for 2pm or just after. It’s Andy Murray, who needs little introduction as an experienced top-level star with a taste for drama, and an engine that keeps him going for many a war of attrition across the net…

Unlike Seppi and Simon, Murray hasn’t announced any immediate plans to retire. The 35-year-old still has the drive, and looks set to keep going as long as his body will let him. Always known for his defensive abilities, Andy is also no stranger to epic encounters. And since his return to action after hip surgery, I’ve noticed a real trend for three-set (and sometimes three-hour) battles from the three-time Grand Slam champion.

For example, just three of Murray’s last 10 matches have been settled in straight sets. And his one previous meeting with today’s ATP Basel indoors opponent Roman Safiullin, which was also played on indoor hard courts, went to the full three sets. Last time out at ATP Gijon this month (also indoors), Andy had a couple of three-set matches that both went well over 2:20 mins on court. Murray is the favourite to win the match, at around 4/6 (1.67). Again, I’m drawn to 3/1+ for the 2-1 score.

As well as three singles on the 2-1 Set Betting picks today, I also want to have a ticket for the raffle in case all three come in. The treble pays 60/1+ in general, with William Hill a top-price 99/1…


Ones to Watch picks:

Roman Safiullin v Andy Murray
ATP Basel - approx. 2pm UK time

  • Set Betting: Murray 2-1 @ 16/5 (4.2) William Hill, Boylesports, 3/1 (4.0) Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral 

Gilles Simon v Laurent Lokoli
ATP Challenger, Brest - approx. 5.30pm

  • Set Betting: Simon 2-1 @ 4/1 (5.0) William Hill, 19/5 (4.8) Boylesports, 15/4 (4.75) Betway, 18/5 (4.6) Ladbrokes, Coral, 7/2 (4.5) Bet365, Betfred 

Andreas Seppi v Yannick Hanfmann
ATP Challenger, Ortisei - approx. 6pm

  • Set Betting: Seppi 2-1 @ 19/5 (4.8) William Hill, 15/4 (4.75) Bet365, 7/2 (4.5) Boylesports, Betway, 17/5 (4.4) Ladbrokes, Coral, 10/3 (4.33) Betfred

Three matches as listed above:

  • TREBLE. Set Betting: Murray 2-1, Simon 2-1, Seppi 2-1 @ 99/1 William Hill, 89/1 Boylesports, 79/1 Bet365, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral, 77/1 Betfred, 67/1 Skybet, 62/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook


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Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch