This game can drive you mad...

Thursday 19th October 2023

Good morning. The highs and lows of tennis betting are well documented in this service…

Yesterday was one of those days where the ups and downs can starkly slap you in the face – or have you tingling with anticipation…

Some people say Hope Dies Last. I prefer Hope Springs Eternal…

As it stands, after a brutal run of results – we have a 125/1 shot through to the quarter finals this week. Now trading at 18/1 with Bet365…

The Ones to Watch name in question being 20-year-old, world no.226, Giovanni Mpetchi Perricard.

The 6’8” youngster put in an immaculate serving performance yesterday, slapping down 11 aces, winning 87% of 1st serve points – and not giving away a single break point.

That 7-5, 6-3 victory came at the expense of my 9/1 ATP Antwerp pick, the more experienced and higher-ranked David Goffin. But it’s our bigger-odds selection that rolls on…

On Friday, Mpetchi Perricard will play in his first ATP quarter final, taking on the big-serving but erratic Alexander Bublik.

• We’re on the young Frenchman in his breakthrough tournament. Let’s see how far Giovanni can go this week. And keep him in mind for events coming up, too

Yesterday was a good day for our two ATP Stockholm picks. With Tallon Griekspoor and Laslo Djere both also winning in straight sets, having been priced up as pre-match underdogs – just like Mpetchi Perricard.

Griekspoor and Djere go through to the quarter finals…

• From highs of 18/1 and 16/1 when we got involved at the start of the week, Griekspoor is now the 9/2 joint-favourite

• And with 33/1 and 25/1 on the table before a ball was hit, Djere is now trading at 12/1 and 10/1

They don’t hand out prizes for getting a big-odds bet down to a shorter price. But being on the right side of these kind of market moves and tournament underdog runs are what we’re all about with our Outright Winner business here at Ones to Watch.

Which brings me back to the frustration I mentioned at the start of this email…

Yesterday’s women’s match pick in Nanchang, China was – in my eyes – one of the clearest, go-to, easy decision bets of the season.

I was finding it hard to foresee a match between Camila Osorio and Sara Sorribes Tormo that didn’t go the distance to three sets…

As it panned out, the pre-match underdog, Osorio, won 6-4, 7-5. But that scoreline doesn’t tell the full story…

Sorribes Tormo broke serve to go ahead first in both sets. But each time that she got in front, the Spaniard coughed the break of serve straight back up. Handing the initiative and momentum to her feisty Columbian opponent.

Crucially, Sara lost her serve with the score at 5-4 in her favour in the second set. In other words, we got our bet into a ‘winning position’: Sorribes Tormo was odd-on to win that game. Which would’ve landed our Total Sets = 3 bet, by taking the match to a deciding set.

That’s just one of any number of countless near misses I could write about this year.

But remember, remember… Hope Springs Eternal…

And if there’s any such thing as ‘luck’ due to go our way this season. The fact that this week’s 100/1 Ones to Watch pick Mpetchi Perricard saved a match point in the 1st round, might just prove a good omen…

The rollercoaster continues next week. Where we have two decent-size ATP 500 indoor hard-court events to take aim at…

We’ll be in Vienna, Austria and Basel, Switzerland. The latter being the tournament where Roger Federer started off as a ballboy… and ended up winning the title 10 times. It pays to dream big…

Enjoy the tennis…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch