Tennis Betting Advice - October 2024

Ones to Watch in Vienna at 40/1 and 33/1...

Sunday 20th October 2024

The Erste Bank Open in Vienna, Austria is our first port of call this week...

This ATP 500-grade tournament is played on indoor hard courts. And we're going after two young sharpshooters with early-career credentials that mark them out as lively outside prospects here.

Alex Michelsen is available at 40/1 with a couple of firms as I write late this Sunday evening - with more firms to price-up their Outright Winner markets come Monday morning.

The 20-year-old American, ranked no.45 in the world, is hungry for his first ATP title. Alex has come close already. Finishing runner-up in finals three times, with two of those this summer. The July defeat on grass at Newport was a very close three-setter against compatriot Marcos Giron, who won his maiden ATP trophy that day. I watched that match, one of several times I've been impressed by Michelsen's attitude and abilities over the past 12 months. He'll need to beat Giron in the 1st round here, but the bookies have the younger man as the marginal favourite - and maybe now is the time for Alex to get that first piece of silverware.

Next up for Michelsen could be 3/1 tournament favourite Alexander Zverev, but the German has been out of sorts lately, including a surprise loss to veteran David Goffin last time he was seen out on court. We'll get behind the young gun Michelsen at a big price.

A 29-9 match win-loss record on indoor hard courts suggests the big-serving American likes to play under a roof - that's an eye-catching 76% win rate in such conditions.

Czech teenager Jakub Mensik is our other one to watch youngster here in Vienna from day one. The 19-year-old sits at a career high ranking of no.51 right now, and if you get the chance to see him play, then you'll likely agree that this big-hitting kid is destined to go much, much higher.

Mensik has already shown his quality against some of the best in the game, including winning an opening set against Novak Djokovic in the Shanghai Masters quarter finals this month. Young Jakub reached a debut ATP final in Doha in February. As with Michelsen, it wouldn't be a big surprise to those following the Next Gen names to see Mensik grab a first title before 2024 is out...

Jakub has what the bookies make a 50-50, 1st round match on Monday afternoon. Taking on Australia's Alexei Popyrin. Both guys are going to thump the ball and look to serve big. Mensik won their only previous meeting. And having come through Vienna qualifying over the weekend with a pair of straight-sets wins, the Czech teenager arrives with the better indoor form under his belt. Both men are prone to injuries. But that qualifying form suggests Jakub is ready for this one. We'll take 33/1.

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Ones to Watch picks:


See above for full details

ATP Vienna - Erste Bank Open

More bookies to price up Monday morning (before play starts 1pm, UK time).

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
 

  • Alex Michelsen @ 40/1 Bet365, Betfred, 33/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, BetVictor
     


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I'll be back in the week with more. There are four tournaments on the schedule overall, and live coverage on Sky Sports.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch