Tennis Betting Advice - October 2025
Paris Masters picks at 66/1 and 125/1...
Monday 27th October 2025
I mentioned ‘ones that got away’ the other day. And we had another one last week…
After falling in the 1st round for us at the ATP 250 event in Brussels, having been backed at 11/1. Brazilian teenager JOAO FONSECA then went and won the trophy in Basel the very next week - a bigger, 500-grade tournament - and having gone off at top prices of 33/1 and 28/1…
Along the way in Basel last week, young Joao benefited from not one but two player injury withdrawals going his way - one walkover, and one in-match retirement.
I’ve compared this young man’s potential to that of another exciting teenager from a couple of years back… current world no.1, Carlos Alcaraz.
Paris Masters picks at 66/1 and 125/1…
While 22-year-old Alcaraz goes off as top seed and general 11/8 (2.38) second favourite for the final ATP 1000 tournament of the season this week, the Rolex Paris Masters. The teenage Fonseca can be backed at triple-figure odds…
Considering Joao’s career indoor hard-court match win-loss record now stands at an impressive 76% (won 16, lost 5). And that this event has a history of producing big-odds surprises…
Along with the fact that this year’s Paris Masters move to a new venue brings with it a court surface that is reported to play a little slower than in the past - potentially playing into the hands of super-talented shot-makers like young Joao (as well as six-time Major champion, Carlos)...
We’ll make a classic Ones to Watch move here:
Back the exciting youngster at massive prices - while we still can.
The likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime (66/1) and Casper Ruud (80/1) are also on my radar here. But seeing as both men were last seen pulling out injured in the Basel quarter finals last week, I’m hesitant to get involved from day one here in Paris. Let’s see what transpires with those two as the week goes on. As a seeded name in the draw, Ruud has a bye through to round 2
Sticking with the three-figure odds in this top half of the Rolex Paris Masters 2025 draw - which contains Carlos Alcaraz - our pre-season Ones to Watch pick, Jiri Lehecka is also worth an outsider mention here. The 23-year-old Czech world no.18 got to the Brussels final the other week, and has given Alcaraz some good matches before. Lehecka might have to go through both of the recent Shanghai Masters ‘500/1 cousins’ though, with surprise Shanghai champ Valentin Vacherot up first, and then runner-up Arthur Rinderknech waiting in the 2nd round
We’ve done well before by backing a player as they hit form during a big tournament like this (our 33/1 winner Holger Rune here in Paris back in 2022, for example). I’ll be on the lookout as the week progresses…
One name I want to get in the book before he hits a ball though is LORENZO MUSETTI - available in the 66/1 - 50/1 bracket (see below)...
Lorenzo did great for us in Paris on clay at the French Open this spring; a 100/1 ante-post pick, the Italian got to the semi final.
Returning to the French capital this week, this time indoors on hard courts, the 23-year-old world no.8 looks to have a good chance to continue his recent form, and put together a deep run in the bottom half of the Paris Masters draw.
Musetti made the quarter finals at this event (at its old venue) in 2022, beaten by Novak Djokovic. Much more recently, the super-talented and still-improving youngster has just gone quarter-final (Brussels) and then semi-final (Vienna) on the indoor courts this month.
Lorenzo has shown his improved maturity and big-time credentials this year; as well as the French Open semis, he also got to the US Open quarter finals on hard courts. He’s also raised his game at ATP Masters 1000 level time and again: semi finals on clay in both Madrid and Rome this season, following a final in Monte-Carlo.
The one missing piece for Musetti right now is silverware. He won two ATP titles in 2022. So far this season he’s hit the bar in two finals. At big prices in Paris this week, the Italian craftsman may yet end his 2025 campaign on a new high…
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A NOTE ON PRICES:
I’ve been watching the Paris Masters day-one matches all day, having just got home from a trip away at the weekend…
With play starting from 10am UK time, and bookies suspending their Outright Winner markets during the matches. In this piece, I’ve referred to prices that were available just before 10 o’clock this morning (Monday).
The markets will go back online here once the last match of the day is completed in Paris tonight, which might not be until around 9/ 10pm or later.
I’ll send out an update on WhatsApp with the best odds for Joao Fonseca and Lorenzo Musetti tonight or tomorrow morning. Follow the Ones to Watch WhatsApp channel here. Neither player is in action today.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
ATP Paris - Rolex Paris Masters
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Joao Fonseca @ 100/1+ (for example, he was 125/1 with Bet365 this morning)
Lorenzo Musetti @ 66/1 or 50/1 (for example, he was 66/1 with Bet365 this morning)
Tuesday’s play is due to start from 10am, UK time. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during each day’s matches.
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone