Tennis Betting Advice - September 2018
US Open: Bets of the Day at 5/1 and 9/1…
Thursday 6th September 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 11 of your US Open 2018 service…
Another epic…
Another four-hour+ Men’s epic on the Arthur Ashe court last night. And the end result wasn’t the one we were looking for.
Our 20/1 pick Marin Cilic had an early lead in his quarter final, but got shaky on the big points – including some painful Double Faults – and was eventually reeled in 2-6, 6-4, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4 by Kei Nishikori.
Similar to the previous night’s quarter final between John Isner and Juan-Martin Del Potro, the match was played in very hot & humid conditions. With the outcome largely riding on the winner of a third-set tiebreak, for a vital 2-1 lead – coming as it did before a 10-minute Heat Policy break.
The quest for big prices is not over yet. There’s still a lot of tennis to be played before these trophies are handed out…
Women’s Semi Finals…
Get the coffee in. Today’s big matches start at Midnight, with the Women’s semi finals back to back:
The bookies make the all-American final the likely outcome, with Serena 1/5 (1.20) to get through and Keys also odds-on at 4/6 (1.67).
However, while that might be the story the TV schedulers are planning for, I don’t think we’re done with the upsets in this tournament yet…
Bets of the Day…
Naomi Osaka is a young player on the up – and a streaky one. A bit like Sloane Stephens, when Noami is on her game she can rip through anyone and any tournament draw. On a bad day, she can look disinterested. All the signs are that this fortnight, Osaka is definitely having ‘a good one’…
Osaka has blazed past several opponents. With score-lines including 6-2, 6-0… 6-0, 6-0 (very rare)… and 6-1, 6-1 in the quarters. And while those opponents might not have been playing at the highest level, Aryna Sabalenka certainly was and Osaka took her out, too.
The 20-year-old Japanese star plays no-fear tennis and that makes her dangerous for anyone. She’s met Serena once and won 2-0, straight after an 80/1 winning blitz through the Indian Wells draw the week before.
All the pressure is on Keys to deliver tonight. Osaka is in red-hot form…
Osaka is around 6/5 (2.20) to win the match, but I’m keen to get the very best prices and in that respect 11/2 (6.50) or 5/1 (6.00) for Osaka to take the trophy is the bet today. (Each Way betting is no longer an option; the Outright Winner market is now Win Only.)
Another reason to go for Osaka Outright is because if Serena goes out in her semi, then Naomi’s price will look very good indeed…
Serena and Anastasija Sevastova have never met – and that’s a plus point for the underdog here. The Latvian is highly skilled, tricky and a tough competitor. Her game-plan this evening should be to move Williams around the court; something her game of drop shots, slices & angles is perfectly designed to do.
Sevastova has already done some giant-killing here, taking out Top 10 opponents Elina Svitolina and defending champ Sloane Stephens.
Williams has been playing well though and has been here many times before. This will of course be tough – but far from impossible.
Once again I want the biggest price on side. The upset match win is 4/1 (5.00). Sevastova to take it in three sets, by the 2-1 score, is available at double the price…
Women’s Outright Winner:
BET: Naomi Osaka @ 11/2
BOOKIES: 11/2 (6.50) BetVictor, 5/1 (6.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports
Serena Williams v Anastasija Sevastova:
BET: Set Betting – Sevastova to win 2-1 @ 9/1
BOOKIES: 9/1 (10.00) Bet365, 17/2 (9.50) 888 Sport, Unibet, 8/1 (9.00) William Hill, Marathonbet
I’ll be back on Friday with my preview & picks for the Men’s Semi Finals.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson