Tennis Betting Advice - September 2018

US Open: Bets of the Day – Men’s Semi Finals…

Friday 7th September 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • US Open Day 12…
  • Men’s Semi Finals…
  • Bets of the Day…

Good morning and welcome to Day 12 of your US Open 2018 service…

All set for Saturday night…

We’re in for a fascinating Women’s Final on Saturday evening. The 36-year-old Serena Williams powered past an overwhelmed Anastasija Sevastova last night, to set up a final with 20-year-old Naomi Osaka…

Osaka, who beat Madison Keys in straight sets in the semis, will be making her first Grand Slam final appearance. We took Outright odds of 5/1 for the Japanese youngster yesterday morning – Osaka is now 2/1 to lift the trophy.

Men’s Semi Finals…

This year’s Men’s tournament has seen several epic matches, and tonight’s Semi Finals could serve up another couple of classics…

Play starts from 9pm:

  • Rafael Nadal v Juan-Martin Del Potro
  • Kei Nishikori v Novak Djokovic

Let’s look at the match-ups…

Nadal v Del Potro

Head-to-head: Nadal 11-5
On hard courts: 5-5

Match Winner odds: Nadal 4/6 (1.67), Del Potro 13/10 (2.30)

Nadal has played in the two longest matches of the tournament so far. His winning score-lines in the last three rounds have been:

Quarter Final – 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7, 7-6 (Total Games = 54)
4th Round – 6-3, 6-3, 6-7, 6-4 (Total Games = 41)
3rd Round – 5-7, 7-5, 7-6, 7-6 (Total Games = 50)

Del Potro has been more lightly-raced, with rounds one to four all taken care of in straight sets, 3-0. His quarter final was a battle though, fighting through 6-7, 6-3, 7-6, 6-2 in tough conditions (Total Games = 43).

These two have had a good couple of days to recover from those substantial efforts. The stage is set for them to go at it again tonight. The sight of these two warriors battling it out is one of the most highly-anticipated spectacles of the tournament…

Rafa beat Del Potro 3-2 in the Wimbledon quarter finals this summer, with the score 7-5, 6-7, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 (Total Games = 55). Their last three Grand Slam meetings have all needed four or more sets. Their hard court head-to-head is tied at 5 wins each.

Over 3.5 Sets is 4/9 (1.49). A Tiebreak in the Match is 1/3 (1.33) at best. The Total Games line looks the value…

The spread betting firms are asking backers to Buy (bet high) at 41.5 Games (SpreadEx) and 42.5 Games (Sporting Index). In the fixed odds markets a couple of bookies are asking for Over 39.5 Games, and others in general at Over 40.5. The numbers above show these two men are more than capable of obliterating those totals…

Nadal v Del Potro:

BET: Total Games – Over 39.5 Games @ 4/5
BOOKIES: 4/5 (1.80) Coral, Ladbrokes, Betway

  • Also available: Over 40.5 Games @ 5/6 (1.83) in general

Latest odds here

Nishikori v Djokovic

Head-to-head: Djokovic 14-2
On hard courts: Djokovic 7-2

Match Winner odds: Nishikori 4/1 (5.00), Djokovic 1/6 (1.17)

Djokovic comes into this on an 11-match winning streak and with 20 wins from his last 21 matches since the start of Wimbledon.

He dominates the career head-to-head v Nishikori, winning the last 13 – including a 3-1 victory in the Wimbledon quarter finals.

Before that 13-match losing run at the hands of the Serbian, the last time Nishikori tasted victory over Djokovic was in fact right here in the US Open semi finals in 2014.

One thing that has impressed me about Nishikori this fortnight is his fitness; injuries have been a constant part of his career, contributing to a high number of in-match retirements and tournament withdrawals over the years. The fact that Nishikori is looking fresh so far bodes well for a good match today.

On the betting front, the stats markets serve up a decent opportunity here. This match pits two of the greatest returners in the game up against each other.

Djokovic has got the Most Aces and also the Most Double Faults in 3 out of 3 meetings v Nishikori this year. The Serb is just 1/6 for the Most Aces tonight, but is the underdog in the betting for the Most Double Faults

Nishikori has served the most Double Faults in just one of their last 7 meetings. He was stepping in and making Marin Cilic nervy on second serves in the last round, drawing out the errors on serve. Djokovic can often throw in Double Faults on the big pressure points – no-one is infallible – and he’s the value price of the two in this market today.

Nishikori v Djokovic:

BET: Most Double Faults – Djokovic @ 15/8
BOOKIES: 15/8 (2.88) Skybet, Evens (2.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 188Bet

Latest odds here

I’ll be back Saturday morning with a preview of the Women’s Final.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch