Tennis Betting Advice - September 2018

US Open: Bets of the Day – Aces High and a Mixed 3/1…

Saturday 8th September 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • US Open Day 13…
  • Aces High in the Women’s Final…
  • A 3/1 shot in the Mixed Doubles…

Good morning and welcome to Day 13 of your US Open 2018 service…

Nadal’s knee takes the headlines…

Friday night’s Men’s Semi Finals didn’t quite live up to the big billing.

Rafael Nadal v Juan-Martin Del Potro was shaping up to be another epic after a close-fought 7-6 first set went to the Argentine, but Rafa started to struggle badly with his right knee after that and decided to call it a day after losing the second set. Our Total Games bet was void as the match was not completed.

In the late match, Novak Djokovic almost literally didn’t put a foot wrong in a 3-0 demolition of Kei Nishikori. The Serb was ahead in the second set on the Double Faults for our 15/8 match pick, but Nishikori threw in another to make it a 2-2 tie.

Aces High in the Women’s Final…

Serena Williams v Naomi Osaka promises to be an exciting Women’s Final tonight (9pm).

We’ll see some big hitting from both players, and a contrast of personalities on court with the aggressive Serena taking on the calm & shy Osaka. It’s experience v youth, too, with 36-year-old Williams having 16 years on her young Japanese opponent, with Osaka making her debut in a Grand Slam final aged 20.

We’re already on Osaka for the title at 11/2 (6.50) or 5/1 (6.00). She’s now around 2/1 (3.00) to win so we have a good price on the underdog going into the final. Serena is the 2/5 (1.40) favourite.

The Total Aces market gets my attention today. Serena has hit more Aces than any other woman in the tournament (64), and Osaka brings some heat of her own with 27 Aces putting her 4th in the standings.

For the season to date on the WTA Tour, Osaka is ranked 8th for Most Aces.

There were 10 Aces in the match in the only previous meeting between these two, in Miami in March when Serena was still in the very early stages of her comeback. She’s improved since then.

The US Open 2018 averages taken on their own forecast a 15 Aces total in today’s match-up.

Paddy Power are asking us to bet Over 15.5, but a couple of bookies have set the line as low as 11.5 Aces, and that’s a target that Serena has beaten on her own in 3 of her 6 matches this fortnight (13, 13 and 18). She also rained down 9 Aces against her sister Venus. Osaka hit 9 v Aryna Sabalenka this week, and 7 against Serena in Miami.

I’m expecting a high-quality final, and some strong serving & a high number of Aces should come with that.

Serena Williams v Naomi Osaka:

BET: Total Aces – Over 11.5 Aces @ Evens
BOOKIES: Evens (2.00) Betway, 78/100 (1.78) Marathonbet

  • Also available: Over 12.5 Aces @ 22/25 (1.88) 888 Sport, Unibet, 5/6 (1.83) NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here (Note: Oddshecker isn’t showing all the options)

A 3/1 shot in the Mixed Doubles…

The Mixed Doubles Final is first up at 5pm today, and the stage is set for American, Bethanie Mattek-Sands to claim an emotional trophy win with her British playing partner Jamie Murray

Mattek-Sands suffered a horrific injury on court at Wimbledon last year and since then has become something of an internet star, with social media videos showcasing both her exuberant personality and her road to recovery.

Mattek-Sands & Murray are 4/9 (1.44) favourites to beat the Polish-Croatian pairing of Alicja Rosolska and Nikola Mektic today.

Odds of 3/1 (4.00) should be snapped up for the 2-1 Set Betting score…

These Doubles matches are played as best-of-three sets, with deciding (third) sets played as a Champion Tiebreak (first to 10 points, must win by 2 points). So far both teams have had 2 of their 4 matches settled that way. And in Mattek-Sands/ Murray’s other 2 matches, they’ve required a 7-6 set (Tiebreak) in the second set to secure a narrow 2-0 victory.

In short, this is likely to go close and the pick is for the favourites to edge it in three sets.

Mattek-Sands & Murray v Rosolska & Mektic:

BET: Set Betting – Mattek-Sands & Murray to win 2-1 @ 3/1
BOOKIES: 3/1 (4.00) Betway, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Marathonbet

Latest odds here

I’ll be back tomorrow morning when we’ll be looking at the Men’s Final.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch