Tennis Betting Advice - September 2018

US Open: Bets of the Day – time for Thiem at 3/1…

Tuesday 4th September 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • US Open Day Nine…
  • Quarter Finals…
  • Bets of the Day…

Good morning and welcome to Day Nine of your US Open 2018 service…

Federer out…

Monday’s US Open night session was one for the underdogs…

First up under the lights in the Arthur Ashe stadium, Carla Suarez Navarro celebrated her 30th birthday by beating Maria Sharapova in straight sets. The Spaniard was 11/5 (3.20) for the upset.

But that was nothing compared to what followed…

In the late match, Roger Federer won the first set v World No.55 John Millman – before the Aussie mounted an incredible comeback, saving set points in both the second and third sets, eventually prevailing as 3-6, 7-5, 7-6, 7-6 winner at pre-match odds of 14/1 (15.00).

That was by some distance the biggest shock of the tournament so far – and will take some beating. Proof once more that the favourites don’t always win. The door is now slightly more ajar for other players this week…

Quarter Finals…

Federer was in the bottom half of the Men’s draw. We got on Marin Cilic at the right time yesterday. Odds of 20/1 have now been chopped in half. The bottom-half quarter finals are played tomorrow and the Men’s line-up looks like this:

  • Marin Cilic v Kei Nishikori
  • Novak Djokovic v John Millman

The top half play today. Tuesday’s quarter final running order on Arthur Ashe is:

  • Sloane Stephens v Anastasija Sevastova – 5pm (UK time)
  • Juan-Martin Del Potro v John Isner – Not before 6.30pm
  • Serena Williams v Karolina Pliskova – Midnight
  • Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem

We have two Outright Winner picks going for us tonight, with good prices on our side…

In the Men’s, 50/1 John Isner takes on Juan-Martin Del Potro.

Our man is an 11/4 (3.75) underdog today, but there are reasons to be positive. Isner is playing the best tennis of his career this year, aged 33, and has won his last two meetings v Del Potro on hard courts (Miami Masters 2018 and Paris Masters 2017). That Miami win came in the semi finals, on the way to the biggest title win of his career.

Isner has hit more Aces than any player in the tournament so far (112, compared to 52 for Del Potro). The move up to the Arthur Ashe court from the slower new Louis Armstrong surface should only help the 6’10” American with his serve.

In the Women’s, our 20/1 pick Karolina Pliskova takes on the tournament favourite Serena Williams.

Pliskova is also priced up at 11/4 (3.75) for the upset today. The last time she played Serena was here on this court in the 2016 semi finals, where Karolina pulled off a 6-2, 7-6 win. Before that, Serena had won their only previous meeting, back in 2014 on hard courts in San Jose.

Only Serena (47) has hit more Aces than Pliskova (26) so far. Again, serve will play a big part this evening.

Our Czech player has quietly made her way through the draw here and while all the talk and hype will be about Serena, the powerful and strong-willed Pliskova is one of the few women on the tour who won’t approach a match with Williams with a sense of dread. If she executes her game right tonight, Karolina can take a huge step towards a second US Open final.

Time for Thiem…

The late match under the lights sees World No.1 and reigning US Open & French Open champion Rafael Nadal taking on World No.9, Dominic Thiem.

This could be a cracker…

Everyone still seems to refer to Thiem as the ‘young’ Austrian, and talk up his chances as a ‘future’ Grand Slam champion. However, Thiem is 25 years old – not a teenager – and I reckon he’s ready to start making those big breakthroughs sooner rather than later.

Already this season he’s reached a first Grand Slam final, at the French Open, after knocking on the door in the semi finals before that.

The Roland Garros clay is where Thiem is universally expected to perform the best. He’s lined up as the heir to Nadal’s ‘Clay Court King’ throne. This year’s French Open final was 3-0 to Rafa, but today is their first meeting away from the red dirt…

All 10 of their previous encounters have come on clay. The head-to-head is 7-3 to Nadal. This first hard-court meeting gives the underdog Thiem something of a free hit at Rafa, with the pressure off compared to the French Open/ clay expectations.

Thiem has worked his way through the US Open draw here without grabbing too many headlines. However a 3-0 win over last year’s finalist Kevin Anderson in the last round was a statement score-line – and the first time Thiem has made it to the quarter finals at a Grand Slam outside of Paris.

There have been a few signs of chinks in the armour for Nadal so far. His knee remains bandaged up. Dropped sets against World No.26 Karen Khachanov and No.37 Nikoloz Basilashvili would be no cause for alarm for most players on the tour, but for a big name like Rafa those long matches suggest he’s not quite firing on all cylinders.

Of course, the great players can still find ways to win when not at their best. But Thiem will be up for the physical battle here – and odds of 3/1 make him a good prospect to provide the Arthur Ashe crowd with another big upset tonight.

Match Winner:

BET: Dominic Thiem to beat Rafael Nadal @ 3/1
BOOKIES: 3/1 (4.00) Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, BetVictor, Betway

Latest odds here

I’ll be back tomorrow morning, when we’ll be looking at Wednesday’s quarter final matches.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch