Tennis Betting Advice - September 2018

US Open: Bets of the Day – Outright picks in the 4th Round…

Sunday 2nd September 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • US Open Day Seven – play starts 4pm…
  • Outright Winner picks in the 4th Round…
  • Bets of the Day…

Good morning and welcome to Day Seven of your US Open 2018 service…

Play starts from 4pm, UK time.

Louis Armstrong strikes again…

Yesterday we noted how the revamped Louis Armstrong stadium court was gaining a reputation as a ‘graveyard’ for the seeds. Four more big favourites came a cropper on the new court on Saturday…

In the Women’s, 13th seed Kiki Bertens, 4th seed Angelique Kerber and 5th seed Petra Kvitova all went down to match outsiders.

And in the Men’s, we saw the biggest-price shock of the tournament so far, with 21-year-old 4th seed Alexander Zverev sent home early from a Grand Slam once again – this time by 7/1 (8.00) shot, 34-year-old fellow German, Philipp Kohlschreiber.

In the final, epic match of the night – which took four hours and went on past 2am New York time – 7th seed Marin Cilic avoided a shock of his own by coming back from two sets to nil down to defeat Australian teenager Alex De Minaur.

A couple of matches earmarked for late-night classics didn’t quite deliver though, with my two 3-Set selections falling short. Kvitova’s defeat to fast-rising star Aryna Sabalenka was over in straight sets, 7-5, 6-1. And over on centre court in the Arthur Ashe stadium, Maria Sharapova v Jelena Ostapenko never really got going at all, with the young Latvian out of sorts in a 6-3, 6-2 defeat.

Sabalenka has now won 8 matches in a row. Sharapova is now played 23 won 23 in night session matches at the US Open.

Today’s Louis Armstrong schedule features a couple of our Outright Winner picks. Which is okay – as we’re looking for upsets…

Outright Winner picks in the 4th Round…

The 4th Round starts today with players in the top half of the draw all in action.

In the Men’s, we have 50/1 John Isner taking on fellow big-server, Milos Raonic. Isner is the higher-ranked player (#11 v #24), higher-seeded (11 v 25) and leads the career head-to-head 4-1, including a 3 sets to one victory over the Canadian at Wimbledon last month. Despite all that, the younger man is the favourite today, with our American 33-year-old selection Isner a game 6/5 (2.20) underdog.

Before that match on Louis Armstrong, we have 20/1 Karolina Pliskova going for us in the Women’s against Ashleigh Barty. Again our player is priced up as the 6/5 (2.20) underdog. The 6’1” Czech is higher-ranked (#8 v #17) and higher-seeded (8 v 18). This time the head-to-head isn’t in our favour though, with the Australian 2-1 ahead on match wins – although on career sets won against each other they are level at 4 sets apiece.

A crucial factor today could be that the 22-year-old Barty is in unchartered waters here – she has never been past the 3rd Round in any of the Grand Slams before. The 26-year-old Pliskova on the other hand is much more experienced at this level, with several quarter final+ appearances, including the final right here in New York in 2016.

The headline, Midnight (UK time) match on Arthur Ashe is our 2017 winner Sloane Stephens against our ‘One to Watch’ outsider pick for this year, 66/1 Elise Mertens. This is first on the night session schedule and a big match…

This time our player is a more justified underdog on the rankings & seeds; Stephens is No.3 and Mertens is No.15. However odds of 6/4 (2.50) don’t put the upcoming 22-year-old Belgian anywhere near the long-shot category – and rightly so. Mertens won their only previous meeting, which came on hard courts in the States just over a fortnight ago, with the score 7-6, 6-2 in Cincinnati. This is a different situation of course, but that victory was Mertens’ best ever rankings win and a significant breakthrough moment for her as she continues her rise in the Women’s game.

As I write, Stephens is the second-favourite for the trophy at 6/1 (7.00) at best and 11/2 (6.50) in general. Mertens is 50/1 (51.00) at best and 33/1 (34.00) in general. We have value on our side.

Talking of value, Isner and Pliskova in particular are good prices today and worthy of backing in the Match Winner market on their own merits.

Match Winner:

BET: John Isner to beat Milos Raonic @ 6/5
BOOKIES: 6/5 (2.20) Bet365, William Hill, Betway, BetVictor

Latest odds here

BET: Karolina Pliskova to beat Ashleigh Barty @ 5/4
BOOKIES: 5/4 (2.25) Boylesports, 6/5 (2.20) Bet365, William Hill, Betway, BetVictor

Latest odds here

Play starts in our featured matches from around 7pm.

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with a look at Monday’s 4th Round matches – and the Outright Winner opportunities in the bottom half of the Men’s & Women’s draw.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch