Tennis Betting Advice - September 2018

US Open: Bets of the Day – two blockbusters tonight…

Saturday 1st September 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • US Open Day Six – play starts 4pm…
  • More 3rd Round blockbusters today…
  • Bets of the Day…

Good morning and welcome to Day Six of your US Open 2018 service…

Play starts from 4pm, UK time.

Graveyard shift…

Last night was the latest one yet. It was gone 4am here when Karolina Pliskova completed the final match of the day five schedule. Our Outright Winner pick kept her cool to beat the promising American youngster Sofia Kenin, 6-4, 7-6.

The new Louis Armstrong stadium court is only a week into service and it’s already gaining a reputation as graveyard for the big names. The opening match of the tournament saw World No.1 Simona Halep dumped out. Two-time Grand Slam champion Garbine Muguruza has followed since.

The pundits are saying the court speed is ‘medium slow’ – slower than other courts at Flushing Meadows – and it could be taking players by surprise. Then there’s the New York ‘noise,’ including trains passing right by this newly-renovated stadium, which has gaps exposed to allow air to flow through.

Pliskova managed to survive the Louis Armstrong conditions last night. She moves into the 4th Round.

Angelique Kerber, Alexander Zverev, Petra Kvitova and Marin Cilic are the Top 10 seeds scheduled on that court today.

I’ve had no joy with my match underdog picks as of yet. Going for the outsider prices means there will be periods like this to endure. The bigger picture is that just one big result can make everything come up like roses. Yesterday’s positives were 20/1 Pliskova66/1 Elise Mertens and 50/1 John Isner all successfully negotiating the 3rd Round to progress into the Sunday-Monday schedule, from when on things start to get serious.

More 3rd Round blockbusters today…

After a couple of instant classics last night – Rafael Nadal’s four-hour win over Karen Khachanov, Kevin Anderson’s five-set victory over Denis Shapovalov – the 3rd Round promises excitement & entertainment again today…

The new kids on the block came out on the wrong side of defeat in those two encounters. Today the likes of Nick Kyrgios v Roger FedererMaria Sharapova v Jelena OstapenkoPetra Kvitova v Aryna Sabalenka and Marin Cilic v Alex De Minaur all feature attacking youngsters taking on some of the wiser and more accomplished minds on the tour. All four of those should be great to watch.

On the betting front…

I’d want a bit more than 5/2 (3.50) for Kyrgios to beat Federer. The young Australian has beaten the great man before, but Roger responded with three victories – although Kyrgios did win a set each time. The doubt of course comes over his temperament. To say the Aussie is erratic is an understatement. Anything can happen when Kyrgios is on court – that’s why he’s so compelling to watch – but that also makes him hard to catch on a ‘good day’ when it comes to putting your money on him. These guys are the second match on court in the headline Arthur Ashe stadium.

Ostapenko is a bundle of fun on & off court and her match with Sharapova will be a battle of power hitting, grunting & screaming – and Unforced Errors. Sharapova won their only previous meeting, 2-1 on clay this year and is the 1/2 (1.50) favourite. This is the opening match in the night session on Arthur Ashe.

Sabalenka is the breakthrough youngster of the summer so far, hitting opponent after opponent off the court. She gets another opportunity to boost her fast-growing reputation tonight, first on in the night session on Louis Armstrong. In a run that has seen her US Open price drop from 100/1 a couple of weeks ago to 25/1 at best today, Sabalenka is currently on a 7-match winning streak which includes her first WTA title, and has won 11 of her last 12, only losing to Halep. The 20-year-old from Belarus is 6/4 (2.50) to continue her run today. Kvitova loves a fight though and is no stranger to digging deep. Kvitova won their only meeting to date, on hard courts in Miami in March – and that one went to a deciding set.

De Minaur is the only teenager from that list, and the biggest price of the lot today at 4/1 (5.00). The 19-year-old Australian is on that new Louis Armstrong court tonight; the question is can he hit through the 6’6” Croatian. Cilic will look to bludgeon him with heavy ground strokes, while the speedy De Minaur will attempt to get every ball back and turn defence into attack. This will be their first meeting.

Bets of the Day…

I make the four matches above the ‘Matches of the Day.’ In the betting markets my angle of attack is to back the two Women’s ties to go the distance to 3 Sets

Ostapenko’s last 4 matches have all gone to a decider, and her meeting with Sharapova earlier this year ended 2-1 to Maria – with 35 games in the match. Another battle looks in store.

Since Wimbledon, 9 of Sabalenka’s 16 hard court matches have gone to 3 Sets. Four of Kvitova’s last 8 have gone the distance, along with her previous meeting with Sabalenka on hard courts earlier this season where the Total Games tally was 30. This could be a classic.

The Total Games line is 21.5 Games for both matches, with the prices around 10/11 (1.91) and 5/6 (1.83) respectively.

I prefer the Total Sets market here, where in both cases we can get 6/4 (2.50) for 3 Sets. All four of the players in question are capable of ripping a set 6-1 or 6-2, but also known for lulls and rollercoaster matches – traits that play into the hands of the 3-Set option.

Maria Sharapova v Jelena Ostapenko:

BET: Total Sets – 3 Sets @ 6/4
BOOKIES: 6/4 (2.50) Skybet, Marathonbet, Bet365, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Latest odds here

Petra Kvitova v Aryna Sabalenka:

BET: Total Sets – 3 Sets @ 6/4
BOOKIES: 6/4 (2.50) Skybet, Betway, 7/5 (2.40) Betfred, Marathonbet, 11/8 (2.38) Bet365, William Hill

Latest odds here

  • Note: some bookies call this bet ‘Over 2.5 Sets’

Both matches are scheduled for a Midnight start. I’ll be back at 10am tomorrow – with some sleep in-between…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch