Tennis Betting Advice - September 2019
Ones to Watch this week at 16/1…
Monday 23rd September 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
The thing about ‘Ones to Watch’…
Our ‘Ones to Watch’ players are rarely isolated cases. When we flag them up, it’s because there’s something in their form, make-up or price (or all three) that catches the eye…
As I’ve said before, there is no crystal ball. We can’t always pinpoint the exact week or tournament where a player will shine. Harder still to narrow it down to the event where they make the final and lift the trophy.
But we try. And we do pretty well at highlighting players that make the ‘business end’ of tournaments as outsiders in the betting.
A few recent examples illustrate the point…
At the start of the year, Daniil Medvedev featured on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list. After a sensational summer on the hard courts, culminating in a first Grand Slam final at the US Open as a 100/1 shot, Medvedev is up to a new high of No.4 in the world.
The 23-year-old won ATP St Petersburg last week, which was his fifth final in a row on the tour. Incredible stuff.
Going back through my articles from this season, I note that there have been three weeks where I’ve specifically picked out Medvedev for a tournament. At odds of 14/1 in Brisbane (Final – Runner-Up), 66/1 at Indian Wells (3rd Round) and 20/1 for Barcelona (Final – Runner-Up). Two Each Way payouts out of three was the reward for those recommendations.
Overall, the Russian has reached eight finals this year – and won three of them. As I have also said before: we can’t back them all.
Sometimes, our picks deliver in the weeks directly after we have specifically latched onto them…
Sofia Kenin was our 66/1 One to Watch for the US Open last month (3rd Round), then flagged up for WTA Zhengzhou (Quarter Final). Straight after those two tournaments, Kenin went and won the Guangzhou title last week. The young American has now made four finals this year, winning three of them.
It’s a similar story with Magda Linette, who was our One to Watch at WTA Nanchang earlier this month (Quarter Final). The very next week, Linette made the final and finished runner-up in Seoul. The 27-year-old Pole has now made the final in two of her last three WTA events.
We’re playing in the right ball park, that’s for sure…
Last week I left you with the ‘French connection’ angle for ATP Metz. French players tend to do well at ATP tournaments played in France. Last week was no exception. Three of the four Metz 2019 semi-finalists were Frenchmen – Lucas Pouille, Benoit Paire and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Crowd favourite Tsonga took home the trophy for the fourth time in his career.
Two 16/1 shots this week…
This week’s four tournaments in Asia are already underway. But we’re only one round in, some of the seeded players are yet to play their opening matches – and more importantly, there are a couple of appealing prices still to be had…
Alex De Minaur is another youngster on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list. The 20-year-old Australian was our 28/1 outside chance for Quarter 2 at the US Open, where he fell just one match short of giving us a shot at that quarter final payout. After making his first two ATP finals in 2018, Alex has gone two better this year – winning titles in both Sydney and Atlanta. He’s back on the hard courts this week, at ATP Zhuhai in China.
After a tricky opener against fellow Aussie, John Millman, Alex’s draw could go in his favour here with Andy Murray yet to return to his full level in singles after hip surgery – and Borna Coric a possible fitness doubt after his comeback run to the St Petersburg final on Sunday.
Millman arrives in good form after winning a title at a lower-tier ATP Challenger event in Taiwan last week. But the omens are good for the higher-ranked De Minaur, who has a 4-1 career win-loss record against fellow Australians.
In the women’s, WTA Tashkent has been a good hunting ground for us in recent years. This low-key tournament in Uzbekistan was the scene of a 19/1 winner for us in 2018 (Margarita Gasparyan), and an 18/1 winner in 2016 with Kristyna Pliskova.
Those two are here again this week with both women priced at around 9/1 each. Unlike last year though, Gasparyan has more match losses than wins on her sheet this season. While the less famous of the Pliskova sisters has failed to get past the 2nd Round in any of her last five tournaments. What’s more, no player has ever won the Tashkent title twice.
For bigger odds I like the form of 20-year-old Anna Kalinskaya. The Russian right-hander is close to breaking into the world’s Top 100 for the first time, after a strong summer that saw her win 19 out of 27 matches at all levels (70%) since the start of June. That includes a run to the semi finals at WTA Washington last month.
Like Washington, Tashkent is an ‘International’ status tournament, which is the lowest grade on the main WTA Tour with a $250,000 total prize fund. Compare that to £8,285,274 in the pot at next month’s ‘Premier Mandatory’ event in Beijing, and you can see why I refer to Tashkent as a low-key draw. There are no big names to be scared of here and Kalinskaya looks an improving young player to follow.
Ones to Watch this week:
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Tuesday’s play starts from 4.30am (UK time) in Zhuhai, and 6am in Tashkent. Bookies suspend their Outright Winner markets during the day’s matches.
I’ll be back in the week with more on the current batch of tournaments taking place in Asia.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson