Tennis Betting Advice - September 2019
US Open: Day Nine – Stan and Jo in the quarter finals…
Tuesday 3rd September 2019
US Open - Day Nine
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Nine of your US Open 2019 daily service.
The two World No.1’s & reigning US Open champions are out.
On Sunday, Stan Wawrinka took out Novak Djokovic, with the No.1 retiring injured when two sets down.
And yesterday, Belinda Bencic produced a superb display of variety, power and control to beat Naomi Osaka in straight sets.
Looking beyond the favourites is a huge part of the Ones to Watch approach. On the betting front, the other is of course to try and snag the best prices on the outside chances…
Going to market…
My main focus has been on securing value prices in the Outright Winner markets. At the odds we go for with our ‘Ones to Watch’ outsiders, the Outright picks are always going to have the greatest potential upside for us.
I’m not adverse to a match underdog pick, of course. But in the examples above, taking the Match Winner markets would not have been the most exhilarating of routes…
In the case of the two World No.1’s being knocked out, Bencic was 7/4 (2.75) to beat Osaka – the match underdog, but not a huge one.
And with Djokovic retiring against 7/2 (4.50) shot Wawrinka, you’d have ended up with a void match bet (stakes returned) with several firms – empty-handed in terms of a winning payout on the day.
The quarter finals start today. And in the Outright Winner market, our hopes of landing a Big One are still very much alive.
We got on Stan Wawrinka before he played Djokovic. Odds of 33/1 and 28/1 Each Way are on our side. The oddsmakers now have Stan at between 9/1 and 11/1.
In the women’s, we picked out Belinda Bencic at odds of 25/1 and 22/1 ahead of her encounter with Osaka. The bookies now make Bencic 7/1 or 8/1 to go all the way.
And last but not least we’re on Johanna Konta at 30/1 or 25/1 from before the 4th Round. Konta is now 12/1 at best.
Numbers on paper are one thing. Now we need the performances and results to continue on court. We can’t control that. But we’ve got prices on our side, with three positions to give us plenty of excitement in the quarter finals.
On Arthur Ashe today…
The first four quarter final matches take place today. All the big business from here on in will be conducted on the Arthur Ashe stadium court.
Here’s today’s schedule (UK times):
Day Session – starting from 5pm
Night Session – starting from Midnight
That’s looking like a great day & night of tennis…
Serena Williams v Qiang Wang should be interesting. Their only previous match-up was a non-event, with Serena withdrawing injured ahead of their scheduled encounter at the Miami Open in March.
Williams rolled her ankle in the last round. She says it’s okay. But it’s still a question mark over the 37-year-old Grand Slam legend, who turns 38 later this month. All the weight of expectation is on Serena as the big favourite here, in front of the home USA crowd.
Qiang Wang was one of five women to feature in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2019 report. The 27-year-old from China has yet to reach any finals this season. But Wang is now an established Top 20 player and this New York run is her best Grand Slam showing to date.
Wang also has the added factor of playing with some inspiration inside her. Earlier this year, her coach Peter McNamara became too ill to continue travelling with her on the tour. McNamara sadly passed away in July.
On the court, Wang is one of the best and most consistent players at moving their opponent from side to side. If Serena has a dodgy ankle, then that would be a wise tactic to employ today.
There’s also an element of the unknown about Stan Wawrinka v Daniil Medvedev. Stan cancelled his press conference yesterday morning; according to reports he was feeling unwell. Medvedev said he had to take a lot of painkillers before his last match – and it seems they took a while to kick in, as he lost the first set. The Russian has also spoken of tiredness after a successful but gruelling summer winning streak on the hard courts. Stan will have the New York crowd with him. And he’s got the big-match experience, too.
Elina Svitolina and Johanna Konta are two of just 14 active players on the women’s tour to have made the quarter finals at all four Grand Slams. Both entered the club by winning their 4th Round matches here in New York at the weekend.
They’re also two of the names on the tour frequently touted as among the best ‘yet to win a Major.’ Both are searching for a first appearance in a Grand Slam final. This year, Svitolina has made the quarter finals at the Australian Open and the semis at Wimbledon. This summer, Konta has gone semi final & quarter final at the French Open & Wimbledon respectively. This is a big match with two women desperate to make the big step in a Grand Slam…
The career head-to-head is 4-0 to the Ukrainian. But I’m not overly concerned at that. One of Svitolina’s victories over Jo came on the lower-tier ITF Tour back in 2013. The two most recent defeats came last season, when Konta’s form had dropped off – in 2018, Jo went out in the 1st or 2nd Round in all four Grand Slams. She’s playing much better right now.
In each of the last three rounds, Svitolina has come up against opponents who rely primarily on power – Madison Keys, Dayana Yastremska and Venus Williams. As we saw with Bencic picking apart Osaka yesterday, a somewhat one-dimensional power game can be exposed against a talented and intelligent player. But Konta will bring a different challenge to Svitolina today; Jo has the strong serve and pace of shot, but also the guile to construct points and be patient when needed – and she moves brilliantly. Expect some good rallies here.
I’m bullish about Konta’s chances in this one. I also like Jo’s observation that the Arthur Ashe courts are playing a bit faster than the others – something that can play into her hands: “Ashe is a big court, it is a bit quicker than the other courts and I'm really looking forward to it.”
Serve it up…
From the quarter finals on we should see the bookmakers offering a few more markets around the serving stats – Aces and Double Faults. There might even be the chance to take a rare foray into the spread betting options.
Today’s matches and markets aren’t too hot on those serving opportunities though. Wawrinka v Medvedev is one to follow for Aces. These two have hit more Aces (67 each) than any other player left in the tournament. Wawrinka has played two sets less than Medvedev, so on the averages the slightest edge would be with Stan there. Bet365 agree with Wawrinka at 8/11 (1.73) for the Most Aces. Paddy Power have Medvedev at that price.
No specific betting picks from me today. More to come on Wednesday when the quarter finals continue. And of course, in the big picture, we’re looking for Wawrinka and Konta to progress today.
I’ll be back at 11am tomorrow with your next daily email.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Enjoy the tennis…