Tennis Betting Advice - September 2019

US Open: Day Seven – shock potential at 25/1+…

Sunday 1st September 2019

US Open - Day Seven

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Keep Konta onside…
  • Stan can challenge the big boys…
  • Saver on Alex…
  • Play starts 4pm…

Good morning and welcome to Day Seven of your US Open 2019 daily service.

I’m in your inbox every day, sharing all my US Open thoughts, opinion, analysis and advice with you.

If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.

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Too good…

Nick Kyrgios was knocked out last night. As ever, all the headlines are about the Australian. But I watched every ball of the match (4am bedtime), and Andrey Rublev was absolutely superb throughout. Sometimes you just have to say: too good. The Russian played a fantastic match and was rock solid throughout.

As One to Watch moving forward, we did see signs of improvement from Kyrgios this week in New York. He didn’t have any massive meltdowns. He held it together better than in recent times. And he played very well indeed in the first two rounds.

Nick now says he needs a break. We’ll see what comes next. I’m not ruling him out. The conundrum – as ever – will be to somehow find the tournament where Kyrgios next strings it all together and makes the finals. I know one thing for sure – and that’s that I’ll be watching.

Keep Konta onside…

The women’s draw has been looking as open as ever. We’ve got 14/1 Karolina Pliskova playing for us today (now 8/1). The big-serving Czech takes on Britain’s Johanna Konta.

Pliskova has not been at her best so far. She’s had a bit of a mid-match lull in each of the first three rounds. She’s been finding the Aces and unreturnable serves when she needs them – perhaps relying a bit too much on them, you might say. But Pliskova has the mental strength and calmness on court to dig deep and get through tough matches.

Having said that, Johanna Konta will represent a big test today…

The head-to-head is firmly in favour of our player, with the career record set at 6-1 to Pliskova. Interestingly though, on hard courts the head-to-head is tied at 1-1 – and both meetings went the distance to a final set.

Hard courts are both players’ best surface. For Konta, the tally stands at 199 match wins to date… and as Greg Rusedski recently pointed out, Jo won the biggest title of her career on the hard courts, at Miami two years ago.

Konta has shown Grand Slam potential this year with impressive runs to the French Open semi finals and Wimbledon quarter finals. Questions persist over Jo’s mental fortitude in the really big matches, when it comes to the crunch. But what I like is that Jo seems readily aware of this, and has spoken of how she continues to work on it.

I don’t have any access to the locker room. We don’t know whether Pliskova is carrying some kind of physical problem that’s preventing her from playing at 100% right now. But those mid-match energy lulls have been worrying.

Rather than take 11/8 (2.38) for Konta to win the match, I like odds of 30/1 or 25/1 in the Outright Winner market. That way, we’re guaranteed a player in the quarter finals.

Stan can challenge the big boys…

In the men’s, the big night match is Novak Djokovic v Stan Wawrinka…

Over the last five years, Stan Wawrinka has been the one man to really challenge the Grand Slam dominance of the big boys – Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal (and Andy Murray).

Since the start of 2014, Stan has won three Majors. The Australian Open at 50/1, the French Open at 50/1 and the US Open at 25/1.

That 2016 US Open win was the last time Djokovic and Wawrinka met. That day, Stan prevailed with a hard-hitting 3-1 win in the final.

Revenge may be in the mind of Djokovic, but the World No.1 has not been at his imperious best in week one here. And question marks remain over a potential shoulder injury.

After a bad knee injury, Wawrinka has made a gradual but ultimately impressive return to form. He admitted he came back a bit early in 2018 – but it’s the love of tennis that made him want to get back on court as soon as possible. A year and more on, the 34-year-old could be about to hit his top stride one last time…

He made the quarter finals at the French Open this year. And in his last five visits to the US Open, Wawrinka has made one quarter final, two semi final appearances – and won the whole thing, too.

Stan is one of the few players to have proved that they can take out the big guns on the big stage. Odds of 33/1 and 28/1 are large enough to warrant an outsider bet in the tournament market here.

Saver on Alex – Part II…

There’s one Australian left in the men’s draw and that’s our 20-year-old One to Watch in Quarter 2, Alex De Minaur

Bet advice:

We’re on De Minaur to win Quarter 2 at odds of 28/1 or 25/1 (now 5/1). After a ‘saver bet’ v Kei Nishikori in the last round (a match that our man won 3-1), my advice so far adds up to a total of 3 points staked around this Quarter Winner selection.

Today, De Minaur plays in the 4th Round v Grigor Dimitrov.

Alex is one win away from a shot at that 28/1 or 25/1 jackpot. This time he’s the favourite for his match. Staking 2 points on Dimitrov to beat De Minaur at 7/4 (2.75) would cover our entire outlay on this Quarter 2 selection.

And once again, we’d still be left with a 20/1+ chunk of points to play with, should Alex make the quarter final.

Today’s Ones to Watch picks:

Women’s – Outright Winner:

BET: Johanna Konta @ 30/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 30/1 888 Sport, Unibet, 25/1 in general

Latest odds here

Men’s – Outright Winner:

BET: Stan Wawrinka @ 33/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 33/1 888 Sport, Unibet, Skybet, Betfred, 28/1 in general

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

SAVER BET – only place if you previously backed De Minaur as advised

Match Winner:

STAKE: 2 points
BET: Grigor Dimitrov to beat Alex De Minaur @ 7/4
BOOKIES: 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet, Betway, Boylesports

Latest odds here

I’ll be back at 11am tomorrow with your next daily email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch