Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020

US Open: Day 11 – Semi Final comeback at 8/1…

Thursday 10th September 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • US Open – Day 11…
  • Women’s Semi Finals…
  • Serena Williams v Victoria Azarenka…

Good morning and welcome to Day 11 of our US Open daily coverage…

US Open – Day 11…

It’s semi finals day in New York, with the final four in the women’s…

It’ll be a late night if you’re planning on watching live. Play starts at midnight UK time with Jennifer Brady v Naomi Osaka, followed by Serena Williams v Victoria Azarenka.

The fast playing conditions at Flushing Meadows have delivered four semi finalists that hit the ball as hard as anyone on the women’s tour. Our own 50/1 outsider pick Maria Sakkari is in that muscle-ball category, too. She was a break up in the final set v Serena in the 4th round, but couldn’t get over the line against the champ.

The day one tournament winner prices of these semi finalists:

Serena 5/1 (6.0)
Osaka 11/2 (6.5)
Azarenka 22/1 (23.0)
Brady 25/1 (26.0)

Williams v Azarenka – 8/1 for a comeback…

Ever the bloody-minded, I’m sticking with the three-sets approach for Azarenka against Williams. The 2-1 Set Betting score didn’t go to plan last night, with Victoria blasting past Elise Mertens with an overwhelming 6-1, 6-0 victory.

Suffice to say, tonight will be closer…

  • Serena has played 10 matches since tennis resumed in August, and 8 of them have gone the distance to 3 sets
  • The last 4 meetings at Grand Slams between Williams & Azarenka have all gone to 3 sets

Four of those eight recent Serena three-setters have seen the American come from behind after losing the first set. And in a further two, Serena lost the match after winning the opening set.

Add in the fact that in the last two rounds here at the US Open, Williams was a break of serve down in the deciding set, before turning things around. And the question is, can the 38-year-old keep coming back?

They say you should never rule out a great champion. If the odds are good, I don’t rule anything out, either…

In the Match Winner betting, the bookies have Williams and Azarenka at 10/11 (1.91) the pair.

In the Set Betting, it’s 7/2 (4.5) each for a 2-1 win. Total Sets = 3 is 11/8 (2.38).

For the biggest prices, with a scoreboard turnaround as the angle I’m latching onto here, both women can be backed at as big as 8/1 each ‘To Lose the 1st Set and Win the Match’ (BetVictor).

  • Other bookies call that market various names, including ‘To Win From Behind’ (Bet365), or ‘Set Exacta’ (Skybet – where you want the ‘LWW’ option for either player, eg. Lose-Win-Win as the match sets pattern)

Meanwhile, in Turkey…

The bookies have been a bit half-hearted with their coverage of this week’s ATP & WTA tournaments as far as the Outright Winner markets are concerned. It certainly feels strange to have weekly tour events going on while a Grand Slam is still very much underway.

If you managed to get any of the bigger prices for our Istanbul Ones to Watch pick, Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (25/1 on Tuesday, briefly 33/1 early on Wednesday, now 12/1). Then you’ll be looking for our player to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the 2nd round today…

Sasnovich is the match favourite, and holds a 4-1 head-to-head v Schmiedlova. I knew this much would be the case before the event. The thinking was that Sasnovich, in with the Istanbul tournament favourites at 8/1, might find it hard to hit her stride having flown here to Turkey from New York, after exiting the US Open in the 3rd round…

Sasnovich certainly struggled in her 1st round match in Turkey, coming from a set and a break down to get through. Schmiedlova is match sharp on the clay right now, playing on it non-stop in Europe over the last few weeks, with a winning record. Our underdog will have her chances today on her opponent’s serve.

Coming up tomorrow, we have the men’s semi finals at the US Open. At the weekend we have the finals. And next week, the tour moves to Rome for a big Masters event on the clay. We’ll be on the big-odds, Ones to Watch hunt in all of those.

Ones to Watch:

Serena Williams v Victoria Azarenka

To Lose 1st Set and Win the Match:

  • Williams is 8/1 (9.0) with BetVictor (Set 1 and Match Result), 15/2 (8.5) Skybet (Set Exacta: LWW), 7/1 (8.0) William Hill, 6/1 (7.0) Bet365 (To Win From Behind)
  • Azarenka is 8/1 (9.0) with BetVictor (Set 1 and Match Result), 15/2 (8.5) Skybet (Set Exacta: LWW), 7/1 (7.0) Bet365 (To Win From Behind), 6/1 (7.0) William Hill

Markets also available with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway, Marathonbet.

I’ll be back at 10am tomorrow with your US Open Day 12 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch