Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020
US Open: Day 12 – Semi Final selection at 11/4…
Friday 11th September 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 12 of our US Open daily coverage…
US Open – Day 12…
The men’s semi final schedule means that if you want to watch the action, you won’t have to stay up as late as last night...
Play starts from 9pm UK time.
Pablo Carreno-Busta v Alexander Zverev is first up. Followed by what could be a lung-buster between Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem.
The day one tournament winner prices of the four semi finalists:
Medvedev 6/1
Thiem 9/1
Zverev 25/1
Carreno-Busta 250/1
If only the bookies got a bit more creative with their markets, we could look to go high on the Longest Rally Count tonight. Medvedev v Thiem should produce plenty of brutal exchanges…
Medvedev v Rublev in the quarter finals currently stands joint-3rd on the US Open 2020 stats for longest men’s rally, with one point consisting of 35 shots. Last week’s 46-shot rally between Gilles Simon and Taylor Fritz is the total to beat.
Alas, neither the fixed odds bookies or the spread betting firms look likely to price up such a market.
We do finally have some Aces & Double Faults prices to look at though…
Carreno-Busta v Zverev…
We’ve spoken a few times this tournament about Zverev’s serving. Here are his match by match stats for Aces & Double Faults: 18-12, 18-2, 14-11, 24-10, 18-6.
That’s a total of 92 Aces, ranked 2nd in the tournament. And 41 Double Faults puts the German in an unwanted 1st place.
In comparison, Carreno-Busta’s match stats for Aces & Double Faults are significantly lower: 5-1, 3-0*, 2-2, 4-1, 5-5. (*Didn’t finished first set v Djokovic – disqualified.)
Bet365 have come through with some player serving markets today. The odds match the tale told by those numbers...
Zverev is a quite frankly ridiculous 1/1,000 for the Most Aces. A £100 stake will win you the princely sum of 10 pence (!).
The 23-year-old is equally unbackable at 1/14 (1.07) for the Most Double Faults.
The Set Betting market offers us a more palatable price…
Following Serena Williams’ three-set trend paid off last night. Victoria Azarenka to ‘Lose the 1st Set and Win the Match’ paid out at a top price 8/1. The Belarusian came from a set down in that women’s semi final to finish strongly, winning 1-6, 6-3, 6-3.
In the men’s semi finals this evening, Alexander Zverev’s total-sets form also warrants returning to…
Adding to the stat that we noted earlier in the week:
At this year’s event, four of the German’s five matches have paid out on the 3-1 Set Betting score.
Sascha Zverev is the favourite to win today, at 4/11 (1.36) in general. Add in the fact that both players’ only previous Grand Slam semi final matches both went to exactly four sets, and odds touching 3/1 for the 3-1 score appeal today.
With Zverev’s serving performance likely to dictate things, the pattern suggests that he’ll just about manage to do more right than wrong…
Ones to Watch:
Pablo Carreno-Busta v Alexander Zverev
I’ll be back at the weekend with my take on finals.
P.S
New tournaments announced…
Next week, we’ll be off to Rome for a big men’s & women’s tournament on clay.
And there are plenty of events coming up for us to enjoy this autumn, especially with this week’s news that the ATP and WTA have sanctioned five brand new competitions, all due to take place in September and October.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson