Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020
US Open: Day Two picks – and an 11/1 chance…
Tuesday 1st September 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to day two of your US Open daily service…
Play starts at 4pm. You can watch the matches live on Amazon Prime Video.
The way this works…
We’ve got some new members onboard this week. So I’ll start today by reiterating the plan of attack outlined in Monday’s email:
When it comes to the tournament Outright Winner markets, we’re going after appealing outsiders at attractive odds.
And going after the big odds inevitably means that we have to take the knocks on the chin. It’s tough, but it’s part of the game. It’s all worth it in the long run, with the rewards there in the prices that we take.
Long-term Ones to Watch member Frank puts it well:
“It's not about how many winners, it's about the price of those winners”
If you’re waking up this morning to that news that two of our Outright Winner selections fell in the 1st round (33/1 Cori Gauff and 150/1 Marie Bouzkova). Or you stayed up and watched the matches, and saw both women lose in deciding sets that could’ve gone either way…
Then now is a time to point you towards a couple of figures from my 2020 records, to help illustrate what being a Ones to Watch follower is all about. So far this season:
1st round defeats are ugly. They hurt. But they are part of the process. Long term, chances are, we’ll be getting more players into quarter finals and beyond, than falling at the first hurdle.
We never know when the big run will come for a Ones to Watch player. But there’s absolutely nothing to say that it won’t be this fortnight in New York. Or it could be next month at the French Open. Or at any of the upcoming ATP & WTA tournaments on the weekly calendar this autumn. It’s a long-term game.
Building the book…
Back to the business at hand. In the US Open Outright Winner market we have three Each Way picks from our day one email, all playing today as the 1st round continues:
We’ll be adding one or two more players and prices to our Outright Winner book as the tournament continues.
The shape of the draw…
The bottom half of the men’s draw gets underway today, where we have pinpointed Rublev and Evans as outsiders to follow.
The top half played on Monday, with world no.1, top seed, and odds-on 4/5 (1.8) tournament favourite Novak Djokovic winning his opening match, 3-0. Our plan in the men’s is to find potential Each Way contenders from the opposite side of the draw to Djokovic, where players avoid the main man until the final.
In the women’s draw, the top half also played out their 1st round matches yesterday, and it’s already shaping up to be fascinating…
Top seed Karolina Pliskova was a comfortable 2-0 winner, but I’m still not sure how the Czech will hold up when the going gets tough in week two. Pliskova is 10/1 in general to win what would be a first Grand Slam title.
Two of the recent Ones to Watch names that featured in our notes in yesterday’s email were Elena Rybakina and Anett Kontaveit, and they both won through, 2-0 and 2-1, respectively. From a top price of 33/1 with a couple of firms at the weekend, both women are now 25/1 at best. Their quarter of the draw looks intriguing…
Kontaveit lost to Naomi Osaka in three-set epic on these New York courts just last week. They could face a rematch.
Rybakina could come up against one of the most promising ‘future Grand Slam winners’ in the women’s game, 20-year-old Dayana Yastremska. But is Yastremska fit? She found a way to win yesterday, 2-1, and didn’t have her leg strapped up to start with as she did last week. The match was a struggle, though. The Ukrainian has drifted from 40/1 to 50/1 with a couple of bookies, most likely due to the fitness concerns. We’ll keep an eye on that one.
The vastly experienced and always-dangerous Petra Kvitova is also in that 2nd quarter of the draw. Kvitova won 2-0 on day one, and is 14/1 at best and 12/1 in general to win a third Major, and a first US Open (Petra’s two Grand Slam wins have come at Wimbledon).
There’s so much to consider. I love it. Working through the draws and permutations is one of my absolute favourite things about tennis betting. Give me a tournament draw-sheet to pore over, and I’m in my element.
11/1 chance in the bottom half…
The bottom half of the women’s field get underway today…
We’re already on Sakkari at 50/1 and 40/1 here. The 25-year-old Greek power-hitter is in the 3rd quarter, which is also home to, in my opinion, some vulnerable-looking seeds. Namely, four Americans…
The 38-year-old Serena Williams is the 5/1 tournament favourite. Serena has lost in the US Open final two years running, and also faltered in the championship match at Wimbledon in each of the last two summers. Sakkari beat Williams at the Western & Southern Open tournament held here at the Flushing Meadows, New York venue last week.
Then there’s Madison Keys, who often struggles to deliver when it really matters. Keys is 20/1, which is basically a go-to price for the bookies on the 25-year-old in a Grand Slam. Keys has played in 33 Grand Slam tournaments, and made one final – runner-up here at the US Open in 2017. She’s a great ball striker, but hard to trust.
And a third American in the 3rd quarter of the draw, Sloane Stephens, looks very ropey at 25/1 at best and as short as 16/1. Sloane was a 40/1 winner for us here, back in 2017. But since then, and especially recently, her form has been very patchy, to say the least. Confidence appears to be low. Stephens has been knocked out in the 1st round in six out of seven tournaments this year.
The fourth USA player with a question mark by them is Amanda Anisimova. Still a teenager, Anisimova was in our book at massive prices for this event last year (150/1). But tragedy struck, with Amanda’s father passing away suddenly last summer. She is on our Ones to Watch in 2020 list from the start of this season, and started the year with a semi final run at WTA Auckland.
Since lockdown though, Anisimova has looked a little too inconsistent and ropey on serve for my liking. She’s 50/1 and 40/1 here. I expect to back her again in future tournaments.
As well as 50/1 and 40/1 Each Way in the Outright Winner market, there’s also a compelling case here to back Sakkari to win the 3rd Quarter. That’s essentially a bet on reaching the semi finals. Maria is 11/1, 10/1 and 9/1 for that option. We’ll add her to the book in that market, too.
Day Two match picks…
Our day one Match Winner picks came good, with Marketa Vondrousova, Marta Kostyuk and Kaja Juvan all winning, to land the 9/4 (3.25) treble flagged up yesterday.
There are a further 64 matches on the 1st round schedule today. Here are the ones I like, for a 2/1 (3.00) treble.
Yesterday I went with youth, with Kostyuk and Juvan both teenagers, and Vondrousova 21 years old. Today, I’m going for experience to win through:
Andy Murray to beat Yoshihito Nishioka @ 2/5 (1.4)
Christina McHale to beat Sorana Cirstea @ 4/7 (1.57)
Shuai Zhang to beat Ysaline Bonaventure @ 2/5 (1.4)
Ones to Watch:
Match Winner picks:
If you’re new to tennis betting, have a read of my Bookie Rules page here for a few pointers.
Play starts from 4pm.
I’ll be back at 10am on Wednesday with analysis, picks and advice for day three.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: email@example.com
Enjoy the tennis…