Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020
US Open: Day Three – including 33/1 & 50/1 outsiders…
Wednesday 2nd September 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to day three of your US Open daily service…
Play starts at 4pm. You can watch the matches live on Amazon Prime Video.
Up and running…
The 1st round completed last night. Our Outright Winner, outsider picks Andrey Rublev (40/1+), Dan Evans (200/1+), and Maria Sakkari (40/1+) all made it through to the 2nd round.
Elsewhere, we saw the first proper upsets, with three players overturning match odds of 5/1+ on the day: Tsvetana Pironkova and Aliona Bolsova in the women’s, and the returning-from-injury Andrey Kuznetsov in the men’s.
And Tuesday was a good day for the teenagers in the women’s draw. With Katrina Scott (just 16 years of age), Leylah Fernandez (17), Caty McNally (18), Amanda Anisimova (19), and Iga Swiatek (19) all progressing through to the 2nd round.
Obviously, a Grand Slam played in empty stadiums feels pretty odd. But this unique US Open has started well, and we have 12 days of top-level tennis to come…
Unfashionable names at 33/1 and 50/1…
In the bottom half of the women’s draw, we’re on Sakkari at underdog prices. With this US Open looking as wide-open as any we’ve ever seen, I want to return to the top half today, where the 2nd round matches begin this afternoon.
While the 2nd Quarter of the draw contains some of the younger players that we’ve discussed recently (Dayana Yastremska, Elena Rybakina, Anett Kontaveit). The 1st Quarter has a couple of experienced names that could be flying under the radar a bit here…
Angelique Kerber (33/1) and Petra Martic (50/1) are somewhat unfashionable picks. That’s okay with me. One or both of those prices could prove to be value. Which could work out well for us, as these two might meet each other in the quarter final.
Kerber I particularly like right now. The 32-year-old German is on something of a low-key comeback. The former world no.1, currently no.23, has reunited with her old coach, Torben Beltz. And I’m not ruling out a partial return to the glory days, where Kerber won not one but three Grand Slam titles – the Australian Open and US Open in 2016, and Wimbledon 2018.
Angie has bags of big-match experience, and could spring a surprise here, with the left-hander playing with less pressure on her shoulders than some of the newer names on the circuit (and indeed, the big stars like Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams). Being one of the very few women in this draw with multiple Grand Slam winning experience to her name has to count for something.
Lower in this section of the draw, 29-year-old Martic has also played her best tennis in the latter part of her twenties. Reaching a first Grand Slam quarter final last year. And winning her first two WTA titles in the last two seasons. The Croat is a fighter, and has the groundstrokes and serve to hold her own against many players in this somewhat-weakened US Open field. She’s a Top 15 player, hungry for a first Grand Slam final.
At odds of 33/1 and 50/1, Each Way, those two women are going in the Outright Winner book today.
Day Three match picks…
We’re one from two with our 2/1 match trebles so far. The 2nd round starts today, and while there are plenty of favourites around the 1/5 (1.2) mark and shorter, I like this handful of players at slightly bigger Match Winner prices.
Match Winners:
Men’s:
Adrian Mannarino to beat Jack Sock @ 4/7 (1.57)
Sock is still working his way back after a very tough time with injuries. He had a five-set epic in the 1st round, that went to a final-set tiebreak. The head-to-head is 4-1 to the American, but they haven’t met since 2016. This time, lefty Mannarino can wear him down with his consistent groundstrokes.
Egor Gerasimov to beat Jordan Thompson @ 11/10 (2.1)
The bookies make the Australian man, Thompson the slight favourite here. But 6’5” Belarusian, Gerasimov is having the best season of his career, achieving a highest-ever ranking and reaching a first ATP final, age 27. He was in double figures for aces in the 1st round, and his serve can do damage again today.
Steve Johnson to beat Ricardas Berankis @ 4/5 (1.8)
Just one rankings place and six months separate these two 30-year-olds. Home-court advantage could prove the edge for Johnson though, who always plays his best tennis in the States. Three of his four ATP title wins have come in the USA. A big win over compatriot John Isner in the 1st round could set the American up to keep the ball rolling against his Lithuanian opponent tonight.
Women’s:
Kristina Mladenovic to beat Varvara Gracheva @ 8/15 (1.53)
As a French player who trained (and played cards) with Benoit Paire, Mladenovic revealed that she’s one of the players confined to now live in a ‘bubble within in a bubble’ in New York this week (Paire tested positive for coronavirus at the weekend, with no symptoms). The isolation seems to have focused the mind for Mladenovic, who came out and posted a good 2-0 win in the 1st round. She can reach the 3rd round here, against a less experienced opponent.
Alison Riske to beat Ann Li @ 4/11 (1.36)
There’s 10 years between these two Americans, but 30-year-old Riske has produced her best results and consistency later in her career. She beat world no.128 Li in straight sets in their only previous meeting, on grass last summer. The world no.20 likes to use pace, so could take advantage of these fast Flushing Meadows courts today.
Set Betting:
Hubert Hurkacz to win 3-0 v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina @ 11/8 (2.38)
Hurkacz features in our Ones to Watch in 2020 report. The 6’5” Pole hit 14 aces in the 1st round en-route to a 3-0 win. He can maintain that consistency today against his Spanish opponent, who may be feeling the effects of a five-set battle on Monday.
Filip Krajinovic to win 3-0 v Marcos Giron @ 8/11 (1.73)
After a run to the quarter finals at the Western & Southern Open here in New York last week, Krajinovic could be a dark horse at this US Open (he’s 150/1). He served for a place in the semi finals at that event, too, before Milos Raonic reeled him in, and the Canadian went on to reach the final. A 3-0 win in the 1st round bodes well for the Serbian here. Giron had a five-set epic on Monday, on court for almost four hours.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner picks – Each Way:
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Match Winner picks:
Set Betting picks:
If you’re new to tennis betting, have a read of my Bookie Rules page here for a few pointers.
Play starts from 4pm.
I’ll be back at 10am tomorrow with analysis, picks and advice for day four.
P.S
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson