Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020

US Open: Day 7 – follow Zverev’s 8-match trend…

Sunday 6th September 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Play starts 4pm…
  • Day Seven…
  • Zverev for the 3-1 score…

Good morning and welcome to day seven of our US Open daily coverage…

Play starts at 4pm. You can watch all the matches live on Amazon Prime Video.

32 players left – and we’ve got six of them…

The Outright Winner markets are where we do most of our Ones to Watch business. It’s where we find the biggest prices. It’s where we get the biggest rewards.

At the US Open 2020, across the men’s & women’s tournaments, we’ve had a total of nine Each Way picks.

As we reach the end of week one and the eve of the 4th round, Last 16 matches, there are a total of 32 men & women still in the competition.

And we’ve got six of our nine players through to week two…

Women’s event:

  • Angelique Kerber 33/1 – now 16/1 in general
  • Petra Martic 50/1 – now 28/1 at best
  • Maria Sakkari 50/1 – now 22/1 in general
  • Tsvetana Pironkova 100/1 – now 25/1 – 50/1

Men’s event:

  • Andrey Rublev 150/1 & 100/1 (January), 50/1 & 40/1 this week – now 33/1
  • Felix Auger-Aliassime 50/1 & 40/1 – now 28/1 at best

All of those players are now one match win away from a place in the quarter finals. That’s easier said than done. But the main point is that we have some great prices on our side.

In the women’s today, we have Kerber priced as the underdog to beat the in-form American, Jennifer Brady. That one is age and experience, versus youth and momentum; defence v attack. It could be a good one.

And battling it out for the other quarter final place in that section of the draw, the bookmakers have our player Martic as the favourite to beat Yulia Putintseva.

Sunny Saturday…

If only every day went as smoothly as Saturday did. The sun was out in New York, and the players we’re rooting for all made swift progress through to the next round.

Rublev blasted past Salvatore Caruso, dishing out a pair of 6-0 ‘bagel’ sets in his 6-0, 6-4, 6-0 win.

Auger-Aliassime was at times sublime in his 3-0 hammering of Corentin Moutet, moving through to the 4th round with a convincing 6-1, 6-0, 6-4 display.

Sakkari took less than an hour to dispatch Amanda Anisimova, 6-3, 6-1.

Pironkova was ruthless, too, needing just one hour and six minutes on court to beat Donna Vekic in straight sets, 6-4, 6-1.

Things will get tougher for our picks from here on in. For example, Auger-Aliassime will face 2nd seed Dominic Thiem (that should be a great match). And for the second time in two weeks, Sakkari will be looking to beat Serena Williams.

  • We’re also on Sakkari at 11/1, 10/1 or 9/1 to win the 3rd Quarter of the women’s draw. The Greek player is now down to 5/2 (3.5) in that market, with Serena the odds-on favourite

Pironkova keeping it clean…

Pironkova’s win over Vekic puts us at break-even for our match picks this week.

In the Outright Winner betting, I don’t think anyone on the planet would’ve been backing Pironkova at 1,000/1 at the start of the tournament. But the 32-year-old’s remarkable comeback run continued yesterday, and the Bulgarian, back on tour for the first time since 2017 after becoming a mother, is through to week two.

We took 100/1 yesterday. And after Saturday’s match win, Pironkova is now trading at between 25/1 and 50/1 in the Outright Winner market.

The heavy strapping on her left leg was a concern. But on the positive side, Tsvetana demonstrated her tennis brains, dealing with any pain or restricted movement by keeping things very efficient with her play…

In week one, Pironkova has:

  • Served zero double faults
  • Only lost her serve once in each match, which is very good going in the women’s game. Saving 3 out of 4 break points yesterday, and the same ratio v Garbine Muguruza in the round before
  • Won every match in straight sets (3 out of 3)
  • Converted a break point every time she had one v Vekic (5 out of 5)

And while Vekic was spraying unforced errors left, right & centre (31 of them, including nine double faults). Pironkova showed that accuracy and consistency can be more productive than power, with 10 winners to just seven unforced errors.

Against both Vekic and Muguruza, Pironkova frustrated her opponent enough to drive them to throw their racket. That’s a sign of the tennis smarts that the Bulgarian has.

After Madison Keys retired injured in her match last night, Alize Cornet moves through to face Pironkova on Monday. The bookies’ early prices have that one as a 50-50 encounter. Our 100/1 shot has a more than fair chance of going through to the quarter finals.

Teenagers out…

Plenty of young players have impressed at this US Open, but after yesterday’s 3rd round matches were completed, all of the teenagers are out.

  • 19-year-old Anisimova lost 2-0 v 25-year-old Sakkari
  • Iga Swiatek (age 19) was beaten 2-0 by Victoria Azarenka (31)
  • Caty Mcnally (18) lost 2-0 to Elise Mertens (24)

Zverev walking the tightrope…

On of the star ‘Next Gen’ names in the men’s game is Alexander Zverev. After reaching a debut Grand Slam semi final at the Australian Open in January, the 23-year-old German is aiming to reach a first Major final.

Not for the first time, Sascha’s chances may be decided by his own errors. The US Open stats for week one show that Zverev is 2nd in the men’s Most Aces chart with 56 from three matches. But he’s also in an unwanted 1st place for Most Double Faults, with 27.

Averaging nine double faults per match is an ugly stat for the world no.7.

That’s something that 6/1 match underdog Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will be looking to take advantage of today. The Spaniard, ranked no.99, is 2nd in the stats for Most Break Points Won this week with 19, one ahead of Novak Djokovic.

Zverev has a history of making hard work of these Grand Slam, best-of-five-set matches. So far this week, all three of his wins have been by three sets to one. Building on a noteworthy longer-term trend:

  • Zverev’s last 8 matches at the US Open have all gone to 4+ sets

To put that another way, none of the highly-rated German’s last eight matches at the US Open have been settled in straight sets. That run goes back to the 3rd round at Flushing Meadows in 2018.

Of those eight New York matches, five have seen the 3-1 score-line.

With Zverev priced as a heavy 1/9 (1.11) favourite to win today. And the German also odds-on to win in straight sets, with the 3-0 score between 4/6 (1.67) and 5/6 (1.83). The 3-1 Set Betting option appeals as a percentage pick, available at around 11/4 (3.75).

Ones to Watch:

Set Betting pick

  • Alexander Zverev to win 3-1 v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is 29/10 (3.9) with Coral, Ladbrokes, 14/5 (3.8) Sportingbet, Bwin, 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/4 (3.75) Skybet, William Hill, 13/5 (3.6) Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, 5/2 (3.5) Betway

Play starts at 4pm.

I’ll be back at 10am tomorrow with your day eight email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch