Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020
US Open: Day Eight – 20/1 for a new men’s winner…
Monday 7th September 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to day eight of our US Open daily coverage…
Play starts at 4pm. You can watch all the matches live on Amazon Prime Video.
All change at the top…
Murray Walker was right. Anything can happen – and it usually does…
I like to think of myself as someone that expects the unexpected, but that doesn’t mean I wasn’t shocked when Novak Djokovic was disqualified last night.
Shocked by the incident that is, not the decision. Hitting the linesperson is unlucky; but in terms of the rules, whacking the ball in anger in the first place is indefensible.
The bottom line is, the world no.1 and tournament favourite, is out. Djokovic was the only previous Grand Slam winner left in the draw. And from our point of view, that means the men’s Outright Winner market is now very much worth revisiting…
We’re going into week two of a men’s Major with no Djokovic, no Roger Federer, and no Rafael Nadal. That hasn’t happened for over twenty years...
The general theme in the mainstream tennis media will now be that this will ‘finally be Alexander Zverev’s moment’ to reach a first Grand Slam final. And in the opposite side of the draw, Daniil Medvedev is lined up as the auto-entry to take the title.
Medvedev has this morning been installed as the 2/1 favourite to win his next four matches and go one better than he did here in New York twelve months ago, and lift the trophy. Zverev is next in line in the betting, at 4/1, alongside Dominic Thiem.
According to the Oddschecker website today, a combined 68% of men’s Outright Winner bets placed have been on those three – Medvedev, Thiem, and Zverev (in that order).
Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook have gone up with a Name the Finalists market. The ‘Zverev v Medvedev’ final is the 4/1 favourite. Incidentally, Bet365 have now come up with a women’s Name the Finalists market, too. Naomi Osaka v Serena Williams is the headliner, at 5/1.
I like to scout around for the more interesting prices…
Coric making no fuss at 20/1…
If you believe in written-in-the-stars stuff, then Borna Coric is one for the storybook today. And at odds of 20/1 and 18/1, he’s one for the betting book, too…
In the 3rd round, Coric was a 6/1 pre-match underdog v one of the tournament favourites, Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Croatian was trailing by two sets to one, and 5-1 down in the third. At 5-4 in that third set, Tsitsipas served for the match at 40-0. Coric went on to save a total of six match points, and win in a final-set tiebreak.
After such high drama and late-night tennis, a slump would’ve been understandable. But Borna bounced straight back on Sunday evening, staying calm and measured in a 3-0 win over 4th round underdog, Jordan Thompson. The name-on-the-trophy theory gathers pace.
Coric moves on to the quarter finals, where he’s no bigger than 2/1 to topple Zverev. The career head-to-head v the German is actually 3-1 to Coric. That includes a win over Zverev here at the US Open in 2017.
Daring to look forward to a potential semi final opponent, with Djokovic gone, that would now be Pablo Carreno-Busta (28/1), or Denis Shapovalov (10/1). The head-to-head formbook tells us that Coric has winning records over those two men, too, 2-1 and 2-0 respectively.
With the market now 1/3rd the odds Each Way for reaching the final, working through the projected match prices, 20/1 or 18/1 for Coric looks plenty fair enough right now. And if any more shocks & surprises happen this evening, that price could even drop a little.
Funnily enough, Borna plays a bit like Djokovic. Elastic limbs, a wall of defence, and the power to unload winners from both flanks. Coric is my under-the-radar pick in this week’s new men’s US Open landscape.
Day Eight…
Elsewhere in the Outrights today, we have four players at outsider prices, all looking to reach the quarter finals:
We’ve got 50/1 shots Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the men’s. And 50/1 Maria Sakkari and 100/1 Tsvetana Pironkova in the women’s.
Sakkari v Serena Williams is one of the matches of the day. Maria beat Serena less than a fortnight ago, here in New York. The Greek player will back herself again. She certainly has the power and fitness to make things very tough for the American legend.
The day eight men’s schedule looks like a cracker, too. I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple or even all three of these go the distance to five sets:
The top two matches there are both being played on the Louis Armstrong court, which has been playing the faster of the two big stadium courts. That could pave the wave for a couple of serve-dominated clashes, with Berrettini, Rublev and Pospisil all possessing big serves and huge power.
On the main Arthur Ashe court, a first ever meeting between Auger-Aliassime and Thiem should see some of the most attractive tennis of the fortnight. It could also be very close.
In the Total Sets markets, the 5 Sets option is 2/1+ in each case, with Bet365 offering the standout prices in their Five-Setters market. I’m putting those three in a speculative, could-be-fun Trixie, with the treble paying 40/1.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner pick – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/3 odds 1-2 places.
Total Sets picks:
‘Five-Setter’ market with Bet365
Matteo Berrettini v Andrey Rublev – Five-Setter is 12/5 (3.4)
Vasek Pospisil v Alex De Minaur - Five-Setter is 5/2 (3.5)
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Dominic Thiem - Five-Setter is 5/2 (3.5)
The treble pays 40/1
Elsewhere, that Five-Setter bet is called 5 Sets or Over 4.5 Sets in the Total Sets markets, at 2/1+ (3.0+) each. With the best prices on the Trixie combo with Marathonbet, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral.
Play starts at 4pm.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your day eight email.
P.S
Still to come…
With the quarter finals starting on Tuesday, we can hope to see a range of Aces and Double Faults markets being offered by a few of the bookies.
Also, there are two other tournaments starting tomorrow – ATP Kitzbuhel and WTA Istanbul…
Continuing this surreal, remodelled 2020 tennis calendar, we have two clay-court events taking place, while the US Open, hard-court Grand Slam is still ongoing. That unusual surface shift, of course, is because preparations are under way for the rescheduled French Open, set to take place in Paris on the Roland Garros clay from 27th September. We’ll have a look at those ATP & WTA events in the next couple of days.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson