Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020

US Open: Day Nine – and a 25/1 shot in Istanbul…

Tuesday 8th September 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • US Open – day nine…
  • Quarter Finals start today…
  • WTA Istanbul begins at 11am…

Good morning and welcome to day nine of our US Open daily coverage…

US Open – Day Nine…

Yesterday wasn’t a vintage one for our picks – but we still have players in the draw at good prices…

50/1 outsiders Felix Auger-Aliassime and Maria Sakkari both departed the competition at the 4th round stage. Sakkari wasn’t far off pushing through to beat Serena Williams. The Greek player led 2-0 in the final set, but Serena reeled her in.

That one was a good example of our Ones to Watch approach. On day one of the US Open, Serena was 5/1 for the trophy. Sakkari was ten times those odds, at 50/1. I’d say there wasn’t that much in it yesterday.

Elsewhere in the Monday matches, our man Andrey Rublev was impressive in a 3-1 victory over the massive-hitting Matteo Berrettini…

Back in January, we flagged up the Russian for the US Open 2020 as our first 100/1 shot of the season, with a top price of 150/1 available at the time. At the start of the tournament, Rublev was 50/1 and 40/1. The 22-year-old is now 11/1 across the board.

That’s the good news. Our outsider is through to the quarter finals. The tricky part is that Rublev will need to beat at least one of the favourites if he wants to reach the final, Daniil Medvedev, and then possibly Dominic Thiem (or Alex De Minaur). Again, though, the key point is that we have the odds very much on our side.

It's a similar case with the biggest priced player of all our picks this US Open fortnight. Tsvetana Pironkova won again yesterday, moving in to the quarter finals, in this her first tournament since 2017.

The 100/1 fairy-tale is still on. The Bulgarian is now as short as 16/1 (Betfred). Although Bet365 clearly think her race is run, with Serena up next, and strapping on Pironkova’s leg – they make the underdog 40/1 to go the distance.

  • The 20/1 pick we added yesterday, Borna Coric, takes on Alexander Zverev in the quarter finals this evening

The quarter finals start today. There’s nothing much in the match markets that catches my eye.In search of an upset, America’s Shelby Rogers is 4/1 (BetVictor) to beat Naomi Osaka, and the head-to-head is 3-0 in Shelby’s favour.

However, to counter that stat, it’s worth noting that the last of those meetings was back in 2017, and on clay. Since then, Osaka has won two Grand Slam title on hard courts, including this one.

I’m looking forward to targeting the Aces and Double Faults markets between now and the end of the tournament. The bookies only tend to offer these bets in the latter stages of Grand Slams. Bet365 have obliged today, but the odds are nothing to write home about, to put it lightly…

Denis Shapovalov is 1/200 (!) to hit the Most Aces v Pablo Carreno-Busta. And the Canadian is also short odds-on at 1/5 to serve the Most Double Faults. In both instances, the stats say Shapovalov is the correct favourite. But I wouldn’t be taking those short prices. We’ll look again tomorrow.

A 25/1 shot in Istanbul…

As I mentioned yesterday, there are two other tournaments starting today – ATP Kitzbuhel and WTA Istanbul

Continuing this surreal, remodelled 2020 tennis calendar, we have two clay-court events taking place, while the US Open, hard-court Grand Slam is still ongoing. That unusual surface shift is because preparations are under way for the rescheduled French Open, set to take place in Paris on the Roland Garros clay at from 27th September.

Kitzbuhel starts from 9.30am this morning, so I’ll wait for the full range of Outright Winner markets to go up at the end of play this evening, and keep you posted if any players or prices stand out for us.

Istanbul starts from 11am today. If you see this email before then, then you might be able to snap up the 25/1 available for Anna Karolina Schmiedlova

While some names in the draw have made the flight over to Turkey from the US Open in New York, it might be worth opposing those players on the grounds of jet-lag, travel issues and so forth (especially with the world as it is right now). That would include a couple of the favourites, Caroline Garcia (8/1) and Aliaksandra Sasnovich (10/1).

Teenager Kaja Juvan is also in that camp. The 19-year-old Slovenian is a player we successfully backed in the 1st round of the US Open last week. But today might not be the best day to catch her at full speed. If that proves to be the case, then the in-form Schmiedlova could get past her this afternoon…

The 25-year-old Slovakian wasn’t at the US Open. Instead, Schmiedlova has been racking up the matches on clay in Europe. She won four matches last week to reach the quarter finals at the WTA $125k event in Prague.

Before that, Anna Karolina won a minor event in her home country, putting together another four-match run. And in total, she has won 17 out of 20 matches on clay since the start of June. That form line could prove significant here, especially considering the question marks over some of the players that have travelled from the USA.

Two of Schmiedlova’s three main WTA Tour level titles have been won on clay. At 20/1+ Each Way, she’s one to watch this week.

  • The full range of bookies don’t have their markets up yet (and Skybet are only betting Win Only). But as I write, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, and William Hill all have the Each Way market available. Play starts at 11am, so it’ll go down then. We’ll revisit the tournament odds tomorrow

Ones to Watch:

Outright Winner pick – Each Way

WTA Istanbul

  • Anna Karolina Schmiedlova is 25/1 with Bet365, 22/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 20/1 William Hill

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your US Open Day 10 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch