Tennis Betting Advice - September 2021

US Open Day 4 - knocking on the door at 50/1...

Thursday 2nd September 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • US Open – Day 4…
  • Sakkari at 50/1…
  • Teenager for a 6/1 upset…

There was plenty going on at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre yesterday. Rain delays, upsets, and a potential broken finger…

The latter is a cause of concern for our early-bird US Open pick from back in January, Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian won her 2nd round match in straight sets on Wednesday, but fell on her hand, and will have to wait and see how the injury holds up over the next couple of days.

In terms of upsets, it’s surprising to note that so far, all of the Top 20 women’s seeds are still intact – with the second half of the 2nd round taking place today & tonight.

The men’s event has produced the biggest price turnovers in the opening days. With Botic Van De Zandschulp knocking out world no.11 Casper Ruud yesterday, at odds of 7/1.

That comes after a 6/1 shock on Tuesday, when world no.12 and two-time former US Open semi-finalist Pablo Carreno-Busta let a two-set lead slip, defeated 3-2 by a 44-ace performance from American world no.151, Maxime Cressy.

In our Day 3 email I listed three women’s matches as potential three-set contenders, with the 2-1 Set Betting scores in mind – combining for an 80/1 attempt…

We weren’t too far off with the first two, with Kaia Kanepi throwing away a 5-3 lead in the second set v teenager Leylah Fernandez, and failing to covert any of four set points to level the match at 1-1. Marketa Vondrousova took Daria Kasatkina to a deciding set, with Kasatkina eventually grabbing the win.

In the late match, 2017 champion Sloane Stephens grabbed the headlines, knocking out 17-year-old phenom, Coco Gauff, in straight sets.

Outright Winner book:

It was a better day for our tournament picks, with our players progressing to the 3rd round:

Aryna Sabalenka – won 2-0
Danielle Collins – won 2-0
Elena Rybakina – won 2-0
Andrey Rublev – won 3-1

Belinda Bencic – plays in 2nd round today
Sara Sorribes Tormo – plays in 2nd round today
Hubert Hurkacz – plays in 2nd round today

I’m adding one name to our book of big prices today. And it’s a player we’ve been tracking for Major success for some time…

In the 1st round, I opposed Maria Sakkari on the grounds that 100/1+ teenager Marta Kostyuk could spring a surprise. That didn’t transpire, with the Greek winning 2-0. And there was something about Sakkari’s demeanour in that match that made me revisit what I said about her back in January. At the Australian Open, I flagged up Maria at top prices of 50/1 and 40/1, with 33/1 in general. She crashed and burned in the 1st round…

Since then, the now-26-year-old has come within a whisker of reaching a first Grand Slam final (had match point in the French Open semi finals). And climbed to a new career high of no.18 in the world.

Here's what I said when backing Sakkari in Australia at the start of the year:

Knocking on the door at 50/1…

Slightly further down the list, for bigger prices, a name I’ve had in my thoughts for some time now is Maria Sakkari.

At 50/1 and 40/1, the 25-year-old is very much on the radar as a player that could be the next name in the women’s game to step up and grab a first-time crown at a Grand Slam…

Indeed, I backed the Greek power-hitter for the US Open last year at similar prices. And again at 50/1 for the French Open the year before that.

I’ve got no problem waiting for a winner at these odds. When we landed [Sofia] Kenin last year [won Australian Open @ 50/1], she had previously been a seven-time losing Outright Winner selection for me in various tournaments the season before. It’s all worth it when they come good.

Sakkari’s best Grand Slam runs to date both came at the hard-court ‘Slams last year. Here in Melbourne, edged out in a close three-set battle v Petra Kvitova in the 4th round – and not far off making the quarter finals.

And in New York when carrying the cash at 50/1 for the US Open, Maria also made the 4th round. Just squeezed out again by a more experienced Grand Slam performer, Serena Williams – and again, in the full three sets.

In short – Sakkari is getting closer.

With Sakkari available at the same prices again today, with the top prices of 50/1 & 40/1 barely flickering despite her 1st round win, I’m returning to put the faith in the Greek. She certainly has the fitness, power, drive & determination to go far.

Backing Maria today means taking on a player we’ve been following at big prices this summer, with Katerina Siniakova a 100/1+ pick of mine twice in recent months (Wimbledon – 3rd round, WTA Montreal – Last 16). We can’t back them all. My gut is telling me to back Sakkari here.

Teenager for a 6/1 upset…

For a teenager to watch, I can’t let today’s preview pass without mentioning the first match on centre court today (5pm). Where 18-year-old Clara Tauson gets the chance to take on world no.1 and recent Wimbledon winner, Ashleigh Barty

The Australian is everyone’s pick, of course. That’s what the numbers and rankings tell us. But when a young player breaks through, it’s all new. And Tauson has a Kenin-like winning drive that should see her rock up here with a no-fear attitude.

I’ve seen Barty struggle a little before when a player brings the heat, and the Danish teenager could ruffle a few feathers with her attacking play today. World no.78 Tauson is on a six-match streak, having won the title at a lower-tier WTA event in Chicago in August, then backing that up with a 2-0 win in round one here in New York.

Odds of 6/1 make the teenager One to Watch today.

Ones to Watch – US Open 2021

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Maria Sakkari @ 50/1 Boylesports, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 40/1 Betfred, 33/1 Bet365 and in general 

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Match Winner:

  • Clara Tauson to beat Ashleigh Barty @ 13/2 (7.5) Betway, 6/1 (7.0) Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

I’ll be back tomorrow by with your Day 5 email.

You can contact me during the US Open at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch