Tennis Betting Advice - September 2021

US Open Day 6 – a good day for a Yankee…

Saturday 4th September 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • US Open – Day 6…
  • Close encounters…
  • Three-set combos…

It was day for the teenagers yesterday. Having had no joy when backing Marta Kostyuk and Clara Tauson at outsider odds this week. Friday saw two other exciting young players – both named in this season’s Ones to Watch in 2021 list – pull off massive wins…

Leylah Fernandez came from behind to beat reigning champion Naomi Osaka, with the 18-year-old Canadian 4/1 (5.0) in the pre-match betting.

And in the men’s, another 18-year-old one-to-watch, Carlos Alcaraz, beat world no.3 Stefanos Tsitsipas, coming through in the final set tiebreak of a five-set thriller. The upset was 7/2 (4.5).

Close encounters…

In terms of our US Open 2021 Outright Winner book, a couple of matches went the distance and ended in heartbreak for our players. Elena Rybakina had plenty of chances to beat Simona Halep, but just couldn’t hang on to a lead (lost 2-1). Victoria Azarenka was also narrowly beaten, 2-1, by Garbine Muguruza. And in the men’s, Andrey Rublev was edged out 3-2 by American crowd-pleaser, Frances Tiafoe.

Aryna Sabalenka beat Danielle Collins, and is now just 6/1 to go all the way.

On paper, Saturday’s 3rd round schedule promises more nail-biting stuff. With these three matches featuring our women’s picks (CAPS), all priced up pretty much 50-50 by the bookmakers:

BELINDA BENCIC v Jessica Pegula

MARIA SAKKARI v Petra Kvitova


Away from our selections, Anett Kontaveit v Iga Swiatek is also shaping up to be very close, with the head-to-head at 2-1, and their last hard-court encounter ending 6-7, 7-5, 7-5 to Kontaveit. The Estonian is on a seven-match winning streak right now. But on the flipside, Swiatek would usually be more likely to hold it together if things get nervy. Which they most likely will…

It's also very much worth taking stock of the career head-to-head formbook for Sakkari v Kvitova:

2020, Stuttgart, clay – Kvitova 2-1
2020 Australian Open, hard – Kvitova 2-1
2019 Cincinnati, hard – Sakkari 2-1
2019 Rome, clay – Sakkari 2-1
2019 Miami, hard – Kvitova 2-0

The last four meetings have all gone the full three sets, with two wins apiece.

Three-set combos…

There are various ways to play those four highlighted women’s matches, with tight scoreboards and long matches in store. In-play traders may well be able to make hay with twists and turns and breaks of serve. The 2-1 Set Betting scores are also an option.

For me, the market to be in is Total Sets, with 3 Sets the bet (eg. Bet365, Betway). Some bookies call this ‘Both Players to Win a Set’ (eg. William Hill). Or Total Sets ‘Over 2.5’ (eg. Boylesports).

With the potential for drama in these close-looking match-ups, and odds in the region of 30/1+ available for the full house of three-setters (Bet365, William Hill). I’m playing the four legs in a Yankee, which consists of six doubles, four trebles, and a four-fold acca.

Ones to Watch – US Open 2021

Women’s 3rd Round matches – Total Sets:

Bencic v Pegula
Sakkari v Kvitova
Sorribes Tormo v Raducanu
Kontaveit v Swiatek

  • YANKEE: the 4 matches listed to all go to 3 Sets

Play starts from 5pm.

I’ll be back on Sunday with your Day 7 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch