Tennis Betting Advice - September 2022

US Open: Day 4 - feeling good at 50/1...

Thursday 1st September 2022

Welcome to Day 4 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at 4pm, UK time…

Things move fast in this game…

I’m glad we got on Liudmila Samsonova when we did.

This time last week, the 23-year-old was available at as big as 100/1 and 80/1 for the US Open, and 50/1+ in general.

After beating last year’s runner-up Leylah Fernandez in straight sets last night – without facing a single break point in the match – Liudmila extends her winning streak to 12 matches.

In this morning’s revised women’s Outright Winner market, the Russian is now 10/1 in general for the title, with only three firms going any bigger than that – Sporting Index Fixed Odds 14/1, Skybet 12/1, and Bet365 at 11/1.

Our other pre-tournament Russian pick, Veronika Kudermetova, went in the book at similar big prices to Samsonova. The 25-year-old also won last night, and like her younger compatriot, Veronika is serving great.

Kudermetova is through to the 3rd round with two 2-0 wins, and is yet to lose a single game on her own serve. She’s now trading at 22/1 in general, with Skybet a best price 33/1.

In the men’s, Casper Ruud came through a decent test against the big-serving Tim Van Rijthoven yesterday. Our day-one 66/1 & 50/1 pick is now 33/1.

  • Today we’ve got four more big-odds Each Way picks looking to book a place in the 3rd round: Cameron Norrie and Hubert Hurkacz in the men’s, and Czech pair Linda Fruhvirtova and Marie Bouzkova in the women’s
  • On the Match Winner front, I continue to hit the bar. Wednesday’s 3/1 and 7/1 accas were both ‘just one away’ from the payout – landing 3 out of 4 legs, and 9 out of 10, respectively

Collins feeling good…

I’ve got one more woman to add to our Outright book today. Danielle Collins is a familiar name in our Ones to Watch picks. The feisty American always gives her all, and is often available at big prices…

Back in January, in the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open, Collins went off at 100/1. We got on Danielle during the tournament, after the 2nd round, scooping odds of 66/1 and 50/1. She went on to reach a maiden Major final, and bag us an Each Way profit.

That big-stage experience can serve Collins well here, as she sets her stall out to win her home Grand Slam in the USA. Ever the dark horse it seems, standout of 50/1 and 40/1 look good from here on in, with 33/1 in general also completely acceptable in this wide-open women’s event.

After knocking out multiple Grand Slam winner Naomi Osaka in straight sets in the 1st round, Collins declared herself fit and happy. Coming into the US Open cold with no warm-up events played on hard courts doesn’t phase her, she says – and I believe her…

The 28-year-old knows her game and knows her body, and having not played since the clay in July might turn out to be masterstroke of low-key Major preparation. Collins pulled off the no-warm-up-events trick Down Under this year: the Australian Open was her first tournament of the season. Dani’s going in the book at big prices today. I reckon she has another big Grand Slam run in her this fortnight.

150/1 for some three-set magic…

Last but not least for today, I like the underdog chances for go-the-distance, three-set wins in these three spicy looking clashes. The 2-1 Set Betting option is around 9/2 (5.5) for each. A speculative treble pays 150/1+. And in a Trixie, any two will pay over 25/1 for a double:

Linda Fruhvirtova to win 2-1 v Garbine Muguruza

Marta Kostyuk to win 2-1 v Victoria Azarenka

Kaia Kanepi to win 2-1 v Aryna Sabalenka


Ones to Watch picks – US Open:

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Danielle Collins @ 50/1 Betfred, 40/1 BetVictor, 35/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 33/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, 888 Sport, Sporting Index Fixed Odds 

Note: I can’t see Collins listed in the Women’s Outright Winner market at Betway. They have an option at the bottom of the list called ‘Any Other’ at 200/1. You could try your luck with that…

Women’s matches – Set Betting:

  • Set Betting picks as listed above – TRIXIE: Fruhvirtova 2-1, Kostyuk 2-1, Kanepi 2-1. Best prices Bet365 (180/1 the treble), Unibet (175/1), William Hill, Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral (150/1+)

Note: a Trixie is comprised of four lines – three doubles, and a treble.


I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 5 email.


Want to get in touch? You can email me throughout the tournament at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch