Tennis Betting Advice - September 2022

US Open: Day 6 – keep the teenage dream alive…

Saturday 3rd September 2022

Welcome to Day 6 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at 4pm, UK time…

I was very late to bed last night, but Ajla Tomljanovic’s three-set classic v the outgoing Serena Williams was well worth it. What a match. What an atmosphere.

The headlines are all about Serena, of course. But it’s world no.46 Tomljanovic who moves into the US Open 4th round. The 29-year-old Australian kept her head remarkably well last night, with a rampant New York crowd cheering every single point for Williams.

Topping the Power Index…

Reaching the Last 16 at Flushing Meadows for the first time in her career, Tomljanovic will take on a young player aiming to reach her first Grand Slam quarter final – our pre-tournament, big-odds pick, Liudmila Samsonova

The good news is that Samsonova won again in straight sets last night – her eighth 2-0 win in a row, and her 13th consecutive match win overall. The 23-year-old Russian’s surging form is acknowledged in the IBM Power Index on the official US Open website, with Samsonova ranked in 1st place right now in this ‘AI-powered measurement of player momentum.’

Our other massive-price Russian pick, Veronika Kudermetova, is ranked 3rd in that US Open 2022 Power Index list. And the 25-year-old was arguably an even more impressive winner than Samsonova on Friday. With Kudermetova blasting away Dalma Galfi 6-2, 6-0 in just 48 minutes. Once again, our player served superbly…

Veronika won 100% of her 1st Serve Points (24 out of 24) yesterday. She’s yet to lose her serve at all so far in the tournament, and has faced just two break points in total across three matches. I can’t stress enough how impressive those stats are, be it in the men’s or women’s game.

Our Russian outsiders…

Unlike the 100/1 for our pick Samsonova (888 Sport, you should be ashamed of yourself), we have no such problems with the top prices taken for our other Russian outsider, Kudermetova. With 100/1 flagged up at William Hill and Boylesports over a week ago.

  • Samsonova is now 10/1 for the title, with Kudermetova this morning cut to 20/1 to go all the way

As well as the original 100/1 eye-catchers, both women were also available at 80/1, and 50/1+, when I flagged them up before the tournament.

I’m well aware that this is going to make for frustrating reading if you have had your 100/1 Samsonova bet voided courtesy of the 888 Sport debacle. But we await to see if any better news comes out of that situation (you never know – I always say I’m an optimist…).

Again, the good news is, we’ve got two Russian outsiders that I didn’t see anyone talking up much before the tournament began – and they’re both in great form…

  • In the official US Open 2022 Event Stats, Kudermetova is ranked in 1st place for 1st Serve Points Won (88%). Samsonova is ranked 1st for 2nd Serve Points Won (65%)

Kudermetova will face our Wimbledon runner-up Ons Jabeur in the Last 16. The promising formbook nugget for our underdog there is that Kudermetova holds a 3-0 career head-to-head v Jabeur, with the most recent being a straight-sets win over the Tunisian on hard courts at San Jose last month. Samsonova beat her next opponent Tomljanovic enroute to the Washington title in August.

Our other open women’s Outright Winner, Each Way bet is Danielle Collins, backed earlier this week at 50/1, 40/1 and 33/1+. The American is scheduled in the Saturday night match, priced as the favourite to beat Emma Raducanu’s conqueror, Alize Cornet. The Frenchwoman is not to be taken lightly, having a late-career resurgence, and also taking out world no.1 Iga Swiatek at Wimbledon this summer.

A good omen is that Collins beat Cornet 2-0 in their only previous meeting – which came on hard courts at a Grand Slam, in the Australian Open quarter finals in January… where Dani went on to reach the final for us at big odds.

  • In the men’s, we have two big-price Ones to Watch picks running for us – one in each side of the draw. Casper Ruud won his 3rd round match yesterday. Cameron Norrie plays today, first out on court on the Saturday schedule (4pm)

Keep the teenage dream alive…

There are two teenagers left in the women’s US Open draw. One of them is Coco Gauff, 18 years old, world no.12, and already approaching household-name status. Gauff is currently the 6/1 second-favourite for the trophy.

The other is a much less well-known name, Chinese 19-year-old, Qinwen Zheng. She’s been quietly motoring up the rankings this year, and has got some intriguing dark-horse potential here in New York…

At the French Open this spring, Qinwen Zheng made the Last 16 – pushing world no.1 and eventual Roland Garros champion Iga Swiatek to three sets. If it wasn’t for her suffering period pains in that match – which she discussed in her interview afterwards – then the Chinese teenager might already have gone on to make a massive headline at a Major.

Zheng immediately followed that Paris run up with a lower-tier WTA 125 title, lifting the trophy on clay in Valencia. On the hard courts and back on the main tour, Qinwen reached the quarter finals at the ‘Canadian Open’ in Toronto last month, a prestigious WTA 1000-grade event. In-between, she reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon, only stopped in two tight sets by Elena Rybakina, 7-6, 7-5. Rybakina went on to win Wimbledon…

That means that at the last two Grand Slams, Qinwen Zheng has only been beaten by the player that went on to take the title. Coincidence maybe. But also, perhaps a sign that the Chinese youngster might already have gone deeper than she has at the biggest tournaments.

As with our Russian outsiders Samsonova and Kudermetova, the official US Open 2022 stats provide some nice current formbook evidence for Qinwen Zheng: she is ranked in 1st place for Most Aces in the women’s tournament so far, with 32 aces across just two matches. Again, this is impressive stuff.

Don’t miss the boat at 33/1…

While the 66/1 from the opening round has now gone, odds of 35/1 and 33/1 are still big enough to get me involved here. To be honest with you, I feel like Qinwen Zheng might prove to be ‘one that got away’ if we don’t get on her now…

She’s priced as the favourite to beat our 100/1 Wimbledon quarter-finalist Jule Niemeier today. If the Chinese rising star gets through that big-hitting contest, then a potential Last 16 rematch with Swiatek could follow. And that could be fascinating. The world no.1 and US Open favourite isn’t playing as well as she was on the clay in Paris. And Qinwen Zheng is still on the up, her potential top performance levels as yet unknown…

What we do know is that Zheng is at a career-high ranking of no.39, and has already shown this season that she can hang with the big hitters. Her racket power and level-headedness could prove very dangerous here – in a tournament known for staging breakthrough ‘Slam performances from zoned-in, big-hitting youngsters in recent years…

Indeed, age 19 and turning 20 in October, Qinwen Zheng falls into the similar age category of recent maiden Major stars such as Swiatek herself, Jelena Ostapenko (who Zheng beat in the 1st round this week), and young US Open champs Raducanu, Bianca Andreescu, and Naomi Osaka.

I say let’s take the best prices on Qinwen Zheng today, with 33/1+ Each Way available with several firms (see below).

Tiebreak potential tonight…

In the match markets v Jule Niemeier this evening, I also want to take the 2/1+ (3.0+) prices for a Tiebreak in the Match. A Tiebreak bet isn’t a usual pick for a women’s match, but Zheng and Niemeier both clatter the ball hard with their big serves. The Chinese player in particular has a habit of playing – and winning – tiebreak sets…

  • Zheng won her set v Swiatek in Paris via a nail-biting tiebreak, 7-6. And since then, the 19-year-old has won five out of seven tiebreakers. Including a 7-6, 7-6 score-line v Anastasia Potapova in the last round here in New York. In their ‘Tie-break Triumph’ market today, Skybet offer 80/1 for Zheng to beat Niemeier by that same score, 7-6, 7-6

The Tiebreak in the Match market is only available with three firms as I write – William Hill, Bet365, and Skybet. If those options don’t work for you, you could also consider 5/1 for a ‘1st Set Tiebreak,’ or betting in-play with various bookies offering Tiebreak or ‘Over 12.5 Games in the Set’ markets, during the action. As well as individual player Set Correct Scores, with the 7-6 outcomes covering the tiebreak route.

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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Qinwen Zheng @ 35/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 33/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, Ladbrokes, Coral

Jule Niemeier v Qinwen Zheng:

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P.S

Thanks for all your emails on the Samsonova issue. If I haven’t replied to you yet, I will during the course of the weekend.

You can email me direct at:

tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Right, time for another coffee…

I’ll be back tomorrow, fresh as a daisy, with your Day 7 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch