Tennis Betting Advice - September 2022
US Open: Day 10 - Casper makes the 'money match'...
Wednesday 7th September 2022
Welcome to Day 10 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at 5pm, UK time…
There’ll be a new name on the trophy…
Much of our US Open prep focused on the chances of an upset, with a recent history of maiden Grand Slam winners in New York, in both the men’s and women’s events.
Going into the quarter finals this week, there were no former Grand Slam winners left in the men’s draw. And in the women’s, the only one of the final eight to have lifted Major silverware before is two-time French Open champion, Iga Swiatek.
That means we’re definitely going to see a new name on the men’s US Open trophy this weekend. And if recent experience counts for anything here, then we’ve got a good chance with our Day 1 outsider pick, Casper Ruud…
With six players left in the men’s draw ahead of today’s remaining quarter final matches, only one of them has been to a Grand Slam final or even a semi final before, and that’s Ruud. The young Norwegian reached a debut Major final at the French Open in June, where he finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal.
66/1 Ruud now 3/1 to go all the way…
In the Amazon Prime Video coverage before yesterday’s quarter final v Matteo Berrettini, birthday boys Tim Henman and Greg Rusedski were making it sound like Ruud wouldn’t be able to handle the Italian. But based on all the evidence we’d seen so far in this tournament, Berrettini just wasn’t up to his top level. Our boy Casper took advantage, and ultimately held his nerve well to get the job done in three straight sets, 6-1, 6-4, 7-6.
From odds of 66/1 and 50/1 when we backed him at the start of the tournament last week, Casper Ruud is now 3/1 second-favourite for the title. Teenager Carlos Alcaraz is the market leader at 7/4 (2.75), and in the other side of the draw.
The semi final is the ‘money match’ for Each Way backers…
In the semi finals, Ruud will take on another surprise package, Karen Khachanov. The Russian world no.31 (formerly as high as no.8) started the tournament as big as 300/1 and 200/1 in the Outright Winner market. Age 26, Khachanov is through to his first Major semi final.
In the early prices for Thursday’s match, the bookies are going with the rankings and head-to-head (Ruud has won his only previous match v Khachanov) – with our player marked up as the 4/7 (1.57) favourite to reach the final.
From odds of 66/1 or 50/1 Each Way, with place terms of 1/2 odds for reaching the final, that effectively means we now have 33/1 or 25/1 on Ruud winning that match. That’s an exciting position to be in. We look forward to seeing if Casper can continue his run tomorrow. As we always say with our big-price tournament picks – it only takes one…
Expect more drama tonight…
Khachanov’s epic five-set underdog win over Nick Kyrios helped land our men’s Tiebreak in the Match double yesterday, with the Russian coming through 7-5, 4-6, 7-5, 6-7, 6-4. With Ruud landing the other half of that bet against Berrettini, 7-6 in the third set.
Ons Jabeur’s win over Ajla Tomljanovic (6-4, 7-6) also landed us Tiebreak in the Match odds, at 2/1+, making it a good day for us – and a much-needed one at that.
We could see more close sets and long matches this evening…
Here are today’s quarter final match-ups, including the head-to-head records:
Andrey Rublev v Frances Tiafoe – 1-1
Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz – 2-2
Karolina Pliskova v Aryna Sabalenka – 2-2
Iga Swiatek v Jessica Pegula – 2-1
As that list shows, things could be tight tonight.
And if we take a closer look at some of the score-lines when these players have met each other before…
Plenty of evidence there for some great matches and potentially twisting scoreboards this evening…
Ways to play those head-to-head stats in today’s betting include the Total Games and Total Sets markets (eg. to go high/ bet Over). The aforementioned Tiebreak angle (7-6 set scores). Or for me, the Set Betting options…
Two ‘predictions’ in particular that I like the feel of today are Alcaraz to win 3-2 at odds of 5/1+, and Pliskova to win 2-1 at around 7/2.
Teenager Alcaraz has already won six out of seven 3-2 matches in his burgeoning Grand Slam career. This kid loves the big stage. While Pliskova is making a habit of winning in three sets here at the US Open 2022, with three of her four matches so far paying out on the 2-1 win.
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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
Karolina Pliskova v Aryna Sabalenka – 5pm, UK time
Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz – due on court 1.30am+
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P.S
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I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 11 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson