Tennis Betting Advice - September 2022

US Open: Day 12 - more Tiebreaks in store tonight...

Friday 9th September 2022

Welcome to Day 12 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at 8pm, UK time…

While the BBC obviously had a long-standing plan in place for when the Queen died, sports broadcasters didn’t seem sure how to react to yesterday’s news.

In the football, the Man Utd and West Ham games still went ahead in England, albeit in a sombre atmosphere, including the most well-observed minute’s silence you’re ever likely to witness at a football stadium.

Prior to kick-off, BT Sport had stock footage on loop, suggesting they weren’t sure what to put up on the screen for a while.

Sky Sports News simply broadcast the standard Sky News feed for the evening.

And for the tennis, on Amazon Prime Video, the presenters only came on air a few minutes before the first women’s semi final was due to begin in New York. With Tim Henman and anchor Marcus Buckland hastily decked out in black suits. The US Open organisers ensured a moment’s silence was held on the Arthur Ashe stadium court before play began.

Men’s Semi Finals…

Tonight’s the night in terms of our big-odds Each Way bet here at the US Open 2022. Back on Day 1 of the tournament last week, we got on Casper Ruud at odds of 66/1 and 50/1. Noting that those were big prices for a player ranked no.7 in the world, and that French Open finalist Casper is often underrated on hard courts.

The 23-year-old Norwegian has done everything we could have hoped for from him so far, reaching the semi finals.

Ruud will take on world no.31 Karen Khachanov, with the 26-year-old Russian making his debut in a Grand Slam semi final.

Considering that at the start of the tournament, a potential opponent at this stage for Ruud could’ve been someone like world no.1 Daniil Medvedev, or Wimbledon runner-up Nick Kyrgios (who Khachanov beat in the quarter finals). We have to say that with all due to respect to Khachanov, on paper, this evening’s draw is better than we could have anticipated for our pick.

Tennis isn’t played on paper though, and while the current rankings and the 1-0 head-to-head point to Ruud, this is going to be a tough match. Khachanov serves big – he’s hit more aces than anyone left in the tournament. And nerves may well play a part for both men.

If you’re on Ruud at 66/1 or 50/1 Each Way (place terms of 1/2 odds 1-2), then you’re sitting on a ticket worth a 33/1 or 25/1 payout should Casper win the semi tonight. That’s a great Ones to Watch position.

Depending on your own betting preference, you may wish to back Khachanov as the underdog in the Match Winner betting today, as a form of ‘saver bet.’ The Russian is a best price 7/4 (2.75) with Boylesports, 13/8 (2.63) Skybet. I’ll leave that decision up to you. Looking at the big picture rather than the US Open bet-book in isolation, I’m happy to be on our man Ruud with the biggest odds on our side.

More Tiebreaks in store tonight…

The Tiebreak in the Match market has been good to us this week, and I reckon we could see a couple more 7-6 sets in tonight’s men’s semi finals…

Karen Khachanov v Casper Ruud – 8pm, UK time

Carlos Alcaraz v Frances Tiafoe – midnight+

  • Each of Ruud’s last 4 matches have featured at least one tiebreak set
  • 4 of Tiafoe’s 5 matches this tournament have seen a 7-6 set – with two of those matches featuring multiple tiebreaks. And 4 coming in the 1st Set

Add in the big serve of Khachanov, and the never-say-die fighting qualities of superstar-in-the-making Alcaraz, and you have the recipe for some close scoreboards in tonight’s big matches.

Five bookies are offering the Tiebreak in the Match market as I write, with odds in the region of 4/9 (1.44) and 1/2 (1.5) for each match:

Bet365 – ‘Over 0.5 Total Tiebreaks in the Match’
Skybet
William Hill
Boylesports
Betway

As with our men’s tiebreak payout earlier this week, I’m going for the double at Evens+ (2.0+).

Alternative betting options for bigger odds include the 1st Set Tiebreak, and 7-6 Set Correct Scores.

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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:

Men’s Semi Finals – play starts 8pm, UK time

  • DOUBLE. Tiebreak in the Match: Yes – Khachanov v Ruud and Alcaraz v Tiafoe @ 23/20 (2.15) William Hill, Skybet, 21/20 (2.05) Bet365, Boylesports, Betway  

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P.S

Want to get in touch? Email me at:

tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 13 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch