Tennis Betting Advice - September 2022

US Open: Day 14 – Go the Distance at 14/1…

Sunday 11th September 2022

Welcome to Day 14 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at 9pm, UK time…

Last night’s women’s final won’t go down as a classic. Iga Swiatek did what true champions do – saving her best performance for the biggest occasion. Too good, as they say. But as for Ons Jabeur, unfortunately, for the second time in a row in a Grand Slam final, nerves got the better of her.

Men’s Final tonight – Ruud v Alcaraz…

Interestingly we once again saw a tiebreak set yesterday, with world no.1 Swiatek taking the trophy match, 6-2, 7-6. Looking at the form going into this evening’s men’s final, both Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz have featured in our Tiebreak in the Match picks this week:

  • Alcaraz has played 4 tiebreaks across the quarter finals and semi finals – and lost all 4 of them. He went on to win both matches in five sets, 3-2
  • Tiebreak bets have paid out in each of Ruud’s last 5 matches. In that time, he’s won 4 out of 7 tiebreak sets played

The bookies make it odd-on for another Tiebreak in the Match tonight (or ‘Over 0.5 Tiebreaks’ with Bet365 and Unibet). With the prices ranging from 4/6 (1.67) at best with Boylesports, to 4/9 (1.44) with William Hill. Other firms with this market include Skybet and Betway.

Going the distance…

For bigger odds than the Tiebreak, another area to consider is the Total Sets

Both of these young men have had to work hard to get to their first US Open final. From six rounds played on the road to the final, only two of Ruud’s matches have been done and dusted in three straight sets. While each of Alcaraz’s last three have all gone to the full five sets. So far, the teenager has finished strong to win in the decider, three times out of three – including saving a match point in the fourth set v Jannik Sinner in the quarter final. In his semi final against Frances Tiafoe, Carlos had a match point of his own in the fourth set, before finally getting the win in the fifth and final set.

A standard question here would be to challenge how fresh Alcaraz will be – physically and mentally – going into tonight’s final, after those three consecutive five-set battles. On the one hand, the Spanish 19-year-old has age on his side, and hasn’t looked to be flagging much when I’ve been watching him play.

On the other side of the argument, if your legs and/ or mind are feeling a bit weary (or nervous), then there aren’t many tougher opponents on the tour right now than Ruud. At 23, the young Norwegian is a master of attrition – patient and fit enough to rally all day. A great example of Casper’s qualities in the semi final, during a very important set point in the first-set tiebreak v Karen Khachanov: the longest rally of the tournament, men’s or women’s, at 55 shots – with Ruud coming out on top.

Over 3.5 Sets is 1/2 (1.5) with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, paying out on a four or five set match.

Bet365 go 5/2 (3.5) for 5 Sets – and 14/1 in their ‘Go the Distance’ market, which pays out if the match is decided by a tiebreak in the fifth set…

That go-the-distance scenario happened in the 2020 final here in New York, with Dominic Thiem winning 7-6 in the deciding set, against Alexander Zverev – a match which, like today’s US Open final, featured two youngsters trying to win their first Grand Slam title. In that one, Thiem came back from two sets and a break of serve down in the third, to win 3-2.

At the start of the tournament, I compared Casper Ruud’s outsider chances here to Thiem’s transition from a player labelled as a clay-court specialist, to an all-surface contender. The Austrian went from Roland Garros runner-up on clay to US Open champion on hard courts. An arc that Norway’s Ruud has the chance to replicate tonight.

As well as a first Grand Slam title up for grabs for both men, as if the stakes could be any higher – the world no.1 ranking is also on the line this evening. The winner takes it all.

  • In terms of the matchday betting, I like the 5 Sets option. We could be in for an epic match

And for a more speculative price, the 14/1 for the fifth-set tiebreak ‘Go the Distance’ option appeals, too. That price is with Bet365. You can also get that bet by a different name with other bookies at similar odds…

  • For example, in their ‘Popular RequestABets’ list, Skybet have ‘Match to be Decided in a 5th Set Tie-break’ at 12/1
  • At Betway, in their ‘#betyourway – Match Specials’ section, ‘GOING ALL THE WAY – Match To Go To Tie Break in 5th Set’ is 11/1

We’re on the biggest price…

We’re on Ruud at 66/1 or 50/1, Each Way. A half-the-odds payout for reaching the final is assured. Obviously, we don’t just want the runner-up prize, although we’ll gladly bank that part of our bet. We want the Big One. We’ve definitely got a great price on our side, with 66/1 or 50/1 riding on this one-off trophy match. In today’s Match Winner market, Ruud is 15/8 (2.88).

Teenage sensation Alcaraz is the 4/9 (1.44) favourite. The hype is all about him. We knew all about Carlos’ talents. But price is the key here, from our Ones to Watch betting perspective…

At the start of the year, Alcaraz featured in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2022 report. And prior to that, last November, we got the Spanish teenager in the book as a 33/1 shot for January’s Australian Open 2022, where he reached the 3rd round. Compared to 33/1 in Melbourne, Alcaraz went off at just 5/1 here in New York.

Ruud featured in our 2021 report, and he’s now through to his second Grand Slam final, having reaching the French Open final this season.

We’re on the unfashionable player here, and that’s okay with me. A teenager in a Major final is always going to garner the most attention. The crowd loves Carlos, too. We’re on the underdog in Casper then – and that’s the territory we play in. Bring it on. Here’s looking forward to a great match…

The players will be coming out on court at 9pm or just after, UK time. You can watch live on Amazon Prime Video, or Live Streaming on bookie websites such as Bet365 and Skybet.


Ones to Watch picks – US Open:

Casper Ruud v Carlos Alcaraz

  • Total Sets: 5 Sets @ 13/5 (3.6) William Hill, 5/2 (3.5) Bet365, 12/5 (3.4) Skybet, BetVictor, Boylesports (Over 4.5 Sets), 9/4 (3.25) Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral
  • Go the Distance: Yes @ 14/1 Bet365. Also available, Match to be Decided in 5th Set Tiebreak @ 12/1 Skybet, 11/1 Betway – see above for more details



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Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch