Tennis Betting Advice - September 2022
Seven in a row...
Thursday 15th September 2022
So, after all the talk of it being wide-open, the US Open 2022 ended with a pair of favourites collecting the trophies – 4/1 Iga Swiatek in the women’s, and 5/1 Carlos Alcaraz in the men’s. And both are no.1 in this week’s world rankings…
However, those figures alone don’t tell the full story…
This was Swiatek’s first US Open title, meaning there’s yet another new name on the trophy at this Grand Slam – the seventh time in eight years that that’s been the case in New York.
And for 19-year-old Alcaraz, this was the first Grand Slam title of his career – and the third year in a row that the US Open has produced a maiden men’s Major winner.
The early bird…
If we zoom in on the day-one tournament Outright Winner prices of the four US Open 2022 finalists, you can see that we managed to back the biggest-price outsider of the bunch – with our 66/1 pick Casper Ruud finishing runner-up for a 1/2 odds Each Way payout:
Men's WINNER: C.Alcaraz (5/1)
Men's Runner-up: C.Ruud (66/1)
Women's WINNER: I.Swiatek (4/1)
Women's Runner-up: O.Jabeur (25/1)
If I wanted to get the violins out, I could lament the fact that, from last week’s four New York finalists: we were on beaten women’s finalist Ons Jabeur at early-bird prices of 40/1 Each Way for Wimbledon this summer… and Carlos Alcaraz featured in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2022 report, and we’d also backed the youngster at 33/1 for the Australian Open this season.
But those aren’t reasons to be frustrated. Actually – if I dare to say it myself – the latest results from the likes of Ruud, Jabeur, and Alcaraz indicate that we’re finding the upcoming Major contenders, and backing them at the biggest/ best prices. Ahead of the curve, if you will.
And the best example of recent times is of course Iga Swiatek, who was on our Ones to Watch in 2020 list – and went on to win the French Open at 100/1 that year.
Last week’s 66/1 finialist Casper Ruud was in our 2021 report.
And if we remark on Nick Kyrgios’ transformation from tennis bad-boy into a genuine Grand Slam contender (reached a debut Major final at Wimbledon this summer). Then we can point to this Ones to Watch article from back in January 2020, as one of several previous occasions where we’d flagged up Nick as a player to follow at big prices.
I could go on…
If you’re a long-time member, then you’ll know that the likes of Ashleigh Barty and Naomi Osaka – to name just two – are also fine examples of Ones to Watch names that have gone on to achieve the highest levels of tennis glory in recent years. Both Barty and Osaka were flagged up by this service when they had zero trophies to their names… and both went on to win multiple Grand Slam titles, and become the world no.1.
So, that’s the confidence boost for us. We’re often in the right ballpark with our big-odds tournament selections – and we usually get there early.
Now for a deeper look at the close-but-no-cigar results…
Seven in a row…
Ruud’s runner-up finish last weekend was the (count ‘em) seventh time in a row this season that we’ve had to settle for second prize in the final…
Each Way payouts at half the odds are great, of course. But what really gets us out of our seats is when one of our big-price underdog picks takes the full honours, and lifts the trophy.
For the year-to-date overall, we’ve got 11 players into finals at nice prices – and had to watch 10 of them do a runner-up speech…
Including 30/1 shot Maria Camila Osorio Serrano, who had no fewer than five match points in the WTA Monterrey final. And 40/1 pick Maxime Cressy, who missed out on the ATP Eastbourne trophy in a final-set tiebreak, 7-6.
Here’s the list in full:
August/ September, US Open - Men:
Casper Ruud @ 66/1 - EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)
August, WTA Granby:
Daria Saville @ 12/1 - EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)
August, ATP Montreal:
Hubert Hurkacz @ 33/1 - EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)
July, ATP Bastad:
Sebastian Baez @ 20/1 - EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)
June/ July (ante-post bet from April), Wimbledon - Women:
Ons Jabeur @ 40/1 – EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)
June, ATP Eastbourne:
Maxime Cressy @ 40/1 - EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)
March/ April, ATP Miami:
Casper Ruud @ 22/1 - EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)
March, ATP Indian Wells:
Taylor Fritz @ 100/1 - WON
Februrary/ March, WTA Monterrey:
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano @ 30/1 – EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)
February, ATP Acapulco:
Cameron Norrie @ 33/1 – EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)
January, Australian Open - Women:
Danielle Collins @ 66/1 – EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)
If you’re a long-time follower, then you’ll know that I’m always saying ‘it only takes one’ to win at big odds to make us happy (and put us in profit overall). And in that respect, Taylor Fritz at 100/1 this March is rightfully enough to be anyone’s betting highlight of the year.
That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t like a few more wins, though…
27 to go…
The good news is, while the four Majors are over for another year, we still have a total of 27 tournaments left on the 2022 calendar. That includes both the ATP & WTA end-of-season finals, and the prestigious ATP 1000 Masters in Paris.
With a schedule taking us all the way through to November. Christmas & New Year is when I traditionally put together our next pre-season Ones to Watch report. And then in January 2023, we’ll be straight into the Grand Slam action again, with the Australian Open in Melbourne.
I’ve just updated the Calendar page on our website with next week’s schedule. There are four tournaments taking place:
Date - Event - Surface:
19th Sept – WTA 500 Tokyo – Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis – Hard
19th Sept – WTA 250 Seoul – Hana Bank Korea Open – Hard
19th Sept – ATP 250 Metz – Moselle Open – Indoor Hard
19th Sept – ATP 250 San Diego – San Diego Open – Hard
I’ll be back next week, looking to swoop in on the best prices and outsider contenders for those tournaments.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson