Tennis Betting Advice - September 2023
US Open Day 7: Nobody beats Iga Swiatek 4 times in a row?
Sunday 3rd September 2023
Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 7
Play starts in New York at 4pm, UK time. With today’s featured women’s matches due on court from around 5.30pm…
Three sets…
I’m not getting the violins out, but…
Saturday saw some tough losses. With three of our women’s picks beaten in a final-set decider. With Marie Bouzkova, Elina Svitolina, and Liudmila Samsonova all edged out in closely-fought, three-set battles. Following on from Danielle Collins (who had match points), and Linda Noskova, both also beaten 2-1 last week…
We may well be due a final-set tussle to go our way. See below…
It wasn’t all doom and gloom on Saturday. Our 16/1 men’s pick Jannik Sinner continues to shine. He looks up for it, too. Jannik overcame a tough opponent on Saturday, holding his head and his game together well to see off former US Open champ Stan Wawrinka, three sets to one.
And our Wimbledon friend, 20/1+ women’s US Open selection Marketa Vondrousova, reeled off another serene 2-0 victory. She’s breezed through the first three rounds without dropping a set. The Czech left-hander didn’t even face a break point on her own serve yesterday. Marketa is now down to 8/1 with Bet365. Skybet are dangling 16/1.
The Sunday schedule could see some more three-set drama in the women’s event. Today is the start of the 4th Round, AKA the Last 16. This is officially Week 2. From here on in, every round has got a ‘final’ in its name…
We have five Ones to Watch players in the Outright book, looking to move through to the quarter finals. With the Last 16 matches spread across today and Monday:
Men:
Taylor Fritz
Jannik Sinner
Alex De Minaur
Women:
Belinda Bencic
Marketa Vondrousova
Head-to-heads…
What’s in a head-to-head? A strong record against a certain player is always of interest to me – especially when the underdog has beaten the higher-ranked player before, and/ or recently…
The headline stat in that department today has to be Jelena Ostapenko’s 3-0 record against world no.1 Iga Swiatek.
A former 100/1 French Open winner as a Ones to Watch youngster. The 26-year-old Latvian’s head-to-head v reigning French Open & US Open champion Swiatek reads:
2022, Dubai, hard court: Ostapenko 4-6, 6-1, 7-6
2021, Indian Wells – hard court: Ostapenko 6-4, 6-3
2019, Birmingham – grass: Ostapenko 6-0, 6-2
Clearly, there’s something in Ostapenko’s all-out-attack game that rubs against Swiatek’s own ‘heavy metal’ style.
Those two hard-court results are particularly significant. As we’ve discussed in this column before, Indian Wells in California has a history of providing clues to future US Open success stories.
Of course, the world no.21 is 6/1 for a reason today. The bookies aren’t daft. They’ll know all about the underdog’s 3-0 head-to-head record. But what no-one can know is, how much has that 3-0 stat, and Ostapenko’s in-your-face style, got in the head of the world no.1?
One thing’s for sure. The Pole will want to stop that 3-0 run tonight…
To paraphrase a famous tennis saying:
Nobody beats Iga Swiatek 4 times in a row?!
My betting approach here is to go to down the three-sets route. If Jelena does cause her problems again today, then Iga is plenty good enough to eventually figure it out in three sets…
The same 2-1 Set Betting option for the pre-match favourite appeals for our player Bencic against another dangerous ball-striking underdog, Sorana Cirstea. The head-to-head is 2-1 to Cirstea, with all three meetings on hard courts. But Bencic came from behind to beat the Romanian 2-1 here at the US Open last year, in their most recent encounter…
And considering that American star attraction Coco Gauff has needed the full three sets in two of the last three rounds, the youngster might find the resurgent Caroline Wozniacki a tough nut to crack, too. This will be their first meeting. If the newly-out-of-retirement Dane rallies hard, but starts flagging late on, then 19-year-old Coco can force her way through to the quarter finals…
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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
See above for full details
I’ve used the Ladbrokes & Coral prices here. Set Betting markets are available with pretty much all bookmakers.
Set Betting:
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You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with the likes of Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back on Monday afternoon with your Day 8 email. Note: that update will be with you later in the day than usual, as I’m away from my desk in the morning.
P.S
Apologies if you’ve emailed me over the weekend and haven’t yet had a reply. I’ve managed to get locked out of my inbox! I will of course endeavour to reply when I’m back in…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone