Tennis Betting Advice - September 2023
US Open Day 8: Tiebreak for tonight - and 50/1 still available...
Monday 4th September 2023
Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 8…
Obvious in hindsight?
Looking back at yesterday’s email, the head-to-heads proved to be excellent guides…
Jelena Ostapenko knocked out tournament favourite and world no.1 Iga Swiatek, and their head-to-head now stands at 4-0 to Ostapenko.
I’m usually very glad when the top seed gets sent packing, opening up the draw for Ones to Watch outsiders to come through. But in Swiatek’s section of the women’s 2023 US Open draw, our 100/1 & 80/1 pick Belinda Bencic won’t be able to make anything of the opportunity….
The Swiss player was taken out yesterday by Sorana Cirstea – a player who we’ve also backed several times at massive prices in the past. Including at 100/1+ at the WTA 1000 events in both Montreal and Cincinnati this summer. Cirstea went out in the 2nd round on both occasions.
The career head-to-head between Cirstea and Bencic now reads 3-1 to the Romanian. Age 33, Sorana moves into her second Grand Slam quarter final, with the first coming at the French Open way back in 2009.
A tale of missed opportunities on Sunday, then. But on the positive side, our Outright & Each Way book still contains a total of four players…
We have Marketa Vondrousova in the women’s event. The Wimbledon champion is taking on American college champ Peyton Stearns in the round of Last 16 this afternoon. Vondrousova beat Stearns 2-0 in the 1st round of that magnificent run to the title at SW19 this summer.
In the men’s, we have Taylor Fritz through to the quarter finals to face Novak Dkjokovic tomorrow night…
While in the Last 16, and looking to reach the quarters, we have Jannik Sinner taking on Alexander Zverev in the night match this evening…
And 100/1 shot Alex De Minaur looking to repeat what he did in the ATP 1000 Toronto quarter finals last month, and beat Daniil Medvedev for what would be the third meeting in a row. The Russian led the early-career head-to-head, 4-0. But since the back end of last season, De Minaur is 2-0 against Daniil. The Australian is 2/1 for the upset today.
If Alex can get through tonight, things will get exciting, as a quarter-final against Jack Draper or Andrey Rublev would be a great opportunity to reach a first Grand Slam semi.
50/1 still available…
Back to yesterday’s upsets, and it’s worth noting that while Cirstea’s price is now 25/1 In general (although Skybet are dangling 80/1). And Ostapenko is now 10/1. At the start of the tournament, Cirstea was 500/1 and 350/1, with Ostapenko available at 125/1, 100/1 and 80/1...
So, while the biggest prices have now gone for those two. One player who can still be backed today at her Day 1 trophy price of 50/1 is QINWEN ZHENG…
Another Ones to Watch youngster who’ve been tracking and backing over the last year or so, the 20-year-old Chinese is right up there in the running for Most Aces in the women’s event so far. If the world no.23 can serve well again today, then she can trouble no.5 Ons Jabeur, who continues to struggle – despite finding a way through against our big-price underdog picks Linda Noskova and Marie Bouzkova in each of the last two rounds…
Zheng has the talent and the power to beat the Tunisian. It’ll be a mental test, too. But odds of just 6/5 (2.2) to win the match show that the bookies don’t think it would be a major shock if the Chinese player was to take out last year’s runner-up this evening. For example, as ‘true odds’ (if there was no profit margin for the bookies built in), then making Zheng a 6/5 shot gives the younger player around a 45% chance of beating Jabeur.
I believe that 50/1 Outright price holds the greatest potential upside for Zheng. An interesting development from Swiatek going out last night is that, in this side of the draw, the world no.2 and new trophy favourite Aryna Sabalenka is now guaranteed to become the new women’s no.1 – whatever happens the rest of this week in New York…
If that news brings any distraction, pressure, or extra mental baggage to the sometimes stressed-looking Sabalenka. Then we could also see a surprise finalist emerging from this segment of the draw.
On the match-betting front this evening, with Zheng’s serve a weapon for her. Coupled with the fact that all three of Jabeur’s matches so far this Flushing Meadows fortnight have produced a tiebreak set. With five 7-6 set score-lines in Ons’ last five completed matches overall. A Tiebreak in the Match (also known as ‘Over 0.5 Tiebreaks’) appeals at odds of 2/1 and greater…
The plan here being, a successful 2/1 Tiebreak wager on this match today can ‘pay for’ our stakes on Zheng Each Way in the Outright Winner market. Giving us a free roll at 50/1, should the Chinese youngster progress past Jabeur this evening. That’s the plan, anyway…
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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
See above for full details
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/3 odds 1-2 places):
Ons Jabeur v Qinwen Zheng:
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Jabeur v Zheng is due on court around 7.30pm (but may well be a couple of hours later – it’s the third match on the Louis Armstrong Stadium Court).
You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with the likes of Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 9 email, ready for the start of the quarter finals…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone