Tennis Betting Advice - September 2023

US Open Day 9: Opportunity knocks for Fritz v Djokovic...

Tuesday 5th September 2023

Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 9…

We finally ‘got’ Ons Jabeur yesterday. The ailing world no.5 produced another error-strewn performance. And this time, our Ones to Watch youngster was able to take her out…

From 50/1 to 10/1…

Qinwen Zheng ran out a convincing 6-2, 6-4 winner. The Chinese world no.23 put in probably the most consistently good performance I’ve seen from her to date. And she moves into 1st place on the women’s US Open 2023 leaderboard for Most Aces:

Women's US Open Singles Ace Leaders

Perhaps the most encouraging thing about Zheng right now is that the 20-year-old loves playing on the big stage. She relished the challenge. You can’t really learn that. Some players simply have a better appetite for the big occasion.

That doesn’t mean she doesn’t get nervous. But it was obvious in Qinwen’s on-court interview after the match that she enjoyed beating a high-profile player on the biggest court in the world. And she’s hungry for more…

A big test and an exciting opportunity coming up next, then. In tomorrow’s quarter final, Zheng will face the soon-to-be new world no.1, Aryna Sabalenka.

With a standout 50/1 available with a couple of firms yesterday afternoon, and plenty of 40/1 and 33/1 elsewhere. The bookies’ reaction to Zheng beating Jabeur has been a strong one – with the revised Outright Winner market now trending with our player at 16/1 and 14/1 in general.

From 50/1 at the time of writing yesterday, Boylesports are now just 10/1. This morning’s industry-best price for Zheng is 20/1 with Betfred (Each Way: 1/3 odds 1-2 places).

A good ‘live’ example there of how we look to play the big prices in the tournament Outright markets…

Our big-odds approach is always going to mean we place more losing bets than winning ones. But when we do click for the win, we get a sizeable payout. If you’re on Zheng at Monday’s advised prices of 50/1, 40/1 or 33/1, then you have a good-looking ticket in your hand, going into the quarter finals….

  • Our other remaining women’s pick also won yesterday. Our 20/1+ selection from last week, Marketa Vondrousova is now 10/1 or shorter. The Wimbledon champion appeared to be hampered by some pain/ discomfort in her shoulder in Monday’s match. But whatever the issue is, it didn’t stop the Czech from coming from a set down to beat promising American youngster Peyton Stearns. Vondrousova will face another US player in Wednesday’s quarter final, taking on Madison Keys 

Taylor Fritz v Novak Djokovic today…

In the men’s, we now have one player left standing. With American no.1 Taylor Fritz flying the Ones to Watch flag in the quarter finals today. Taking on world no.2 and 23-time Grand Slam champion, Novak Djokovic

Little introduction needs to be given to Novak. The bookies are clear in their assessment. Djokovic is a heavy odds-on favourite at 1/7 (1.14) to win the match, and reach a 13th US Open semi final. In the Outright betting, the Serbian is the Even-Monday (2.0) favourite for the trophy, looking to collect what would be his 4th Major title in New York.

Away from the admittedly intimidating legendary-status CV of Mr Djokovic. On paper, this evening’s match is the current world no.9 against the no.2. With Fritz over 10 years younger than his opponent. And unlike Djokovic, who had to come from two sets to nil down to win 3-2 in the 3rd round. The 25-year-old American is yet to drop a set at the US Open 2023. Posting four x 3-0 wins so far.

The standard of opposition rises considerably today, of course. But momentum is important, and Taylor has been quietly putting together his best-ever showing here at Flushing Meadows. Reaching the quarter finals for the first time, having failed to go further than the 3rd round in nine previous attempts.

While another American is guaranteed to be in the men’s semi finals, with Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton facing off in the other quarter final in this side of the draw. Along with Madison Keys and star attraction Coco Gauff keeping home hopes very much alive in the women’s event. It feels like Fritz is flying a little under the radar this fortnight. That will all change if he beats Novak tonight. The headlines are there to be written…

Taylor’s timeline…

In today’s match betting, Fritz is a 5/1 underdog to beat Djokovic. The head-to-head is a dominant 7-0. Taylor sounds pretty upbeat about that record though, which shows he’s got his head right going into this bigtime battle at his home ‘Slam…

This from the official US Open website:

“He's gotten me seven times. There's no one on tour that has any kind of a record like that against me, so I'm hoping one of these times I've got to get him. US Open quarters would be a pretty good time to get him.”

Taylor Fritz US Open Press Conference

In the Outright Winner market, I first flagged up Fritz for the US Open in March of this year at odds of 33/1 Each Way. After a bit of a flat spring & summer, Taylor’s price drifted to 50s, 66/1, and even 80/1….

Meaning we have a different kind of Ones to Watch price switch where. One in which the best odds on our man were to be obtained at the start of or even during the tournament, rather than early doors.

Here’s a brief timeline of Fritz’s US Open 2023 prices, with the dates being when I highlighted those odds in Ones to Watch email updates:

2nd March33/1

28th July 50/1

24th August 66/1

On Day 1 of the US Open, Fritz was 66/1 at best, and 60/1, 50/1 & 40/1 in general. Sporting Index Fixed Odds dangled 80/1 for a couple of days last week.

  • In today’s Outright Winner betting, Boylesports are a standout 50/1 for Fritz, with 40/1 elsewhere – but down to 20/1 with the likes of Bet365, William Hill, and Betfred

After landing Indian Wells for us at 100/1 and 66/1+ last year. Taylor owes us nothing. He’s up against a massive opponent today, of course. But as with that Indian Wells win in California, Fritz will feel that this New York crowd are rooting for him – and that a victory here would prove a career-defining breakthrough moment…

Tune in for the big match if you can. Fritz v Djokovic is scheduled second on the Arthur Ashe Stadium Court. Play begins with Jelena Ostapenko v Coco Gauff at 5pm, UK time. The men’s match will follow that one, so around 6.30pm or after.

Serving stats point to Tiebreak chances…

The 7-6 set score is always one to look out for when there’s a strong server or two involved…

Fritz and Djokovic have met once before at Grand Slam level, and the opening set of their Australian Open 2021 encounter was settled by a tiebreak, 7-6…

Here at the US Open 2023, Fritz is ranked Top 5 for Most Aces, 2nd for Fastest Serve – and 1st for 1st Serve Points Won (87%).

Those are encouraging stats, which suggest that the American can keep in touch with Djokovic on the scoreboard today, if he serves to his potential.

The men’s night match (approx. 1.30am+, UK time) between Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton also has big potential for Aces and Tiebreaks…

This all-American clash in front of a packed house is likely to feature some lightning-quick play. Shelton is ranked no.1 this fortnight for both Most Aces and for hitting the Fastest Serve (Ben’s dad told him off for looking up at the big screen to check his serve speed…!).

Tiafoe is also Top 7 in both of those categories. And here at the US Open last year, Big Foe’s run to the semi finals saw him play out a total of eight tiebreak sets across six matches. With Over 1.5 Tiebreaks paying out in three of those matches, including in both his quarter final and semi final played right here on the Arthur Ashe court.

The bookies make a Tiebreak in the Match (or Over 0.5 Tiebreaks) an odds-on favourite in both of these matches today. I wouldn't put you off those options. But as mentioned the other day, I like the bigger prices for multiple tiebreaks. With a case to be made for Fritz v Djokovic and Tiafoe v Shelton to go Over 1.5 Tiebreaks

The main advice here is for a pair of singles. Best prices and available bookies below. And for a smaller stake (eg. 0.5 point), the double appeals at 26/1+ with Sky, Paddy & Betfair Sports, if you can get it.


Ones to Watch picks – US Open:

See above for full details

Taylor Fritz v Novak Djokovic

  • Total Tiebreaks: Over 1.5 Tiebreaks @ 11/2 (6.5) Skybet, 5/1 (6.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 7/2 (4.5) Bet365

Frances Tiafoe v Ben Shelton

  • Total Tiebreaks: Over 1.5 Tiebreaks @ 7/2 (4.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 10/3 (4.33) Skybet, 12/5 (3.4) Bet365
  • Double: the two Over 1.5 bets above @ 27/1 Skybet, 26/1 Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Various Tiebreak markets also available with the likes of William Hill, Unibet, and Boylesports. Other alternatives to consider: 1st Set Tiebreak, and 7-6 Set Correct Scores.

You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with bookies including Bet365 and Skybet.

I’ll be back tomorrow for Day 10, when we’ll see our two women’s picks in action in the quarter finals…

  • You can view every email in the archive on our members-only website here

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch